As it turns out, the Thunder were far more competitive than I thought they had any right to be thanks to the emergence of Steven Adams and Andre Roberson AKA: Sefolosha 2.0. I admit that I was way too strong in my "WARRIORS IN A SWEEP" prediction but, they did eventually win three in a row? Is it really that inconceivable that they could have swept the most ISO-heavy team not from Houston in this year's playoffs? -leaves space for a response- Shut up. The Warriors won the series hyped up as "the real finals" and should now easily win their second ring... right?
In order to be christened the greatest team in the history of the NBA (or something of that ilk), Golden State faces a familiar opponent that presents new challenges from a year ago, when the bay area took home their second-ever trophy. The Cleveland Cavaliers are back in the finals for the second consecutive year as well and unlike last season, they seem to fully healthy (minus the exhaustion that comes with the territory of making it to an NBA Finals). Opinions are very split on how this rematch will play out but one thing seems unavoidable and that is the likelihood that this series is going to be entertaining as hell.
Thank god The Ringer launched just in time for the chaos of it all.
Before I get to deciphering my pick for this year's NBA champions, here is a short look back at the previous round of action and what each series taught us...
Western Conference Finals Prediction: Warriors in 4.
Reality: Warriors over Thunder in 7.
Gm. 1: Thunder 108, Warriors 102
Gm. 2: Warriors 118, Thunder 91
Gm. 3: Thunder 133, Warriors 105
Gm. 4: Thunder 118, Warriors 94
Gm. 5: Warriors 120, Thunder 111
Gm. 6: Warriors 108, Thunder 101
Gm. 7: Warriors 96, Thunder 88
MVPOTS (Most Valuable Player of the Series): Andre Iguodala (see: Game 6's final 5 minutes)
What We Learned:
1. Steven Adams is America's most mainstream New Zealander (sorry Flight of the Conchords).
2. Maybe Kevin Durant shouldn't leave in free agency after all? (I'm still feeling Miami but, only after one more year in OKC)
3. Draymond Green can get away with anything.
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| Some people actually tried to pin this one on Adams... LOL. |
Eastern Conference Finals Prediction: Cavaliers over Raptors in 5.
Reality: Cavaliers in 6.
Gm. 1: Cavaliers 115, Raptors 84
Gm. 2: Cavaliers 108, Raptors 89
Gm. 3: Raptors 99, Cavaliers 84
Gm. 4: Raptors 105, Cavaliers 99
Gm. 5: Cavaliers 116, Raptors 78
Gm. 6: Cavaliers 113, Raptors 87
MVPOTS: Lebron James
What We Learned:
1. Dwane Casey earned another year on the job.
2. Lebron saved AGGRO-bron for the Finals.
3. Any team Durant signs with is automatically the second best team in the East right now. YES, PHILLY INCLUDED. Take that scorching hot take and keep it in mind for the off-seasons ahead.
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| Yes Kyle Lowry, I mentioned the Philadelphia 76ers in a Finals Preview, don't act so surprised. |
#1 Golden State Warriors v. #1 Cleveland Cavaliers
Here we are again, another rematch in the sport that seems to have the highest percentage of finals' that end in rematches among the major sports. Even though the jerseys and ownership remain the same, this will have a much different look than last year's Warriors-in-6 ending.
1. Kyrie Irving? Healthy & will likely play more than one game.
2. Kevin Love? Healthy & will actually play in this series after missing last season's due to an injury suffered in the first round.
3. J.R. Smith? Healthier than he was last season.
4. Timofey Mozgov? a shell of himself that now sits on the bench.
5. Channing Frye and Richard Jefferson get serious minutes after being added by Cleveland in the last twelve months.
6. David Lee? Gone.
7. Marreese Speights? Healthier than last season.
That's a lot of information to digest but, what does it all mean? Well...
1. Irving adds a #2 scorer that Cleveland was totally missing last season. Timofey Mozgov led in non-Bron scoring with 14.0 PPG compared to AGGRO-bron's 35.8. Irving also adds a ton of speed and great passing skills (because after the fifth of a hundred no-look Dellavedova passes, that trick stopped working). The one obvious negative is that Kyrie's defense is non-existent and that is a huge step backward for this team from last year that he needs to make up on offense.
2. Love adds another great scorer (it can't hurt to have three, I mean... Golden State only has two). He's also a solid #2 rebounding option on defense and defense alone since he rarely spends time inside the three-point line on offense. Other than Tristan Thompson (who will again be largely relied upon for offensive and defensive boards), Lebron had to again rely on his own capabilities by grabbing a whopping 13.3 rebounds per game in last season's finals. If Love goes on a cold shooting streak (as he tends to do), Golden State will win that game.
3. J.R. will be slightly more effective than last season when he only shot 31.2% overall and 29.4% from beyond the arc now that he has fresher legs.
4. Rebounding will be Lebron's responsibility when Love exits the game due to Mozgov's tumultuous, injury-riddled season. This is why they paid Tristan Thompson all of that money this off-season to guard the paint.
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| Ronald Martinez/Getty Images This is the series where Tristan Thompson earns his max. contract. |
6. David Lee is one less option for rebounds as Golden State will likely give his minutes away to a now-healthy Marreese Speights and former-Cav Anderson Varejao. This seems like more of a positive as Lee was a shell of his former self at this point in the year last season and Speights is a better all-around player. Varejao shouldn't be getting minutes but, the same argument could have been and was made against Lee.
7. Speights was Sixth Man of the Year material last regular season until an injury hampered his productivity for the entire 2015 playoffs. The good news is he's healthy again. The fantastic news is teams seem to leave him open 6 times a game and he is reliable for 3 three-pointers a game if that is the case again against Cleveland. He is the most underrated player in this series and will be the key to Golden State getting any assistance from their struggling bench (Iguodala hasn't shot well, Livingston is cold this postseason and Barbosa might finally be slowing down).
That's a lot more depth to the previous information but again... What does it all ultimately mean?
Well... Nobody will really know until it's over (this statement was brought to you by Captain Obvious) BUT, I keep thinking about Matthew Dellavedova & Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love and Timofey Mozgov and I just can't help but notice what an enormous step backward that is for Cleveland defensively (and people forget that last season's decimated Cavs team was the team to most effectively contain Curry & Thompson during the Warriors' entire championship run). It's not as if Golden State got any worse. Quite the contrary in fact, they finished 73-9 after going 67-15 a year ago and somehow got even better at shooting (See: Curry's new insane three-point record). Both of these teams are better than they were a year before and Cleveland will be less reliant on Lebron James some games and will have to turn to AGGRO-bron once Steve Kerr figures out how to guard the un-guardable lineup of Irving-Smith-James-Love-Frye. It's a toss-up that could potentially come down to home-court advantage as so many games have in these playoffs. I would love for this to go seven games but, there is one change I did not mention that is more important than anything listed above...
8. Tyronn Lue replaced David Blatt mid-season due to a loss of the locker room on Blatt's part.
Has Tyronn Lue done a better job than Blatt? A majority of people will wait until the end of this series to determine whether or not that is the case and that's completely fair. Just by watching the team, one can determine that the Cavaliers have almost figured this whole "three mouths to feed" thing out the same way that the Lebron-led Heat did five years ago when James won his first ring. The big issue is Kevin Love is (surprisingly enough) not as good as Chris Bosh was in 2012 and Lebron did not have Erik Spoelstra fired midway through the season. This team is still one year and/or one more small piece (unless a sleeper candidate like Mo Williams, James Jones or Jordan McRae starts shooting at a 60% clip from beyond the arc) away from taking down the Warriors.
My Pick: Warriors in 6.
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| Cleveland fans are going to need more beer than that to get through another championship loss. |
Good luck to whomever you choose to root for and may the NBA Finals provide excitement and may a game seven be in our near future!
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