Who knew the market for Mock Drafts was popping off as strongly as it is this offseason? I certainly didn't until I saw EVERY FOOTBALL WRITER ALIVE mock up a draft of their own for this Thursday's big night #1 of the annual three-day event. I guess it's time for me to give it a shot again too...
1. Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)
If Jacksonville (who technically has not confirmed anything yet) were to draft anyone besides Lawrence, it'd be the most genuinely surprising moment in NFL Draft history. Good luck to him on trying to make the Urban Meyer NFL experiment work.
2. New York Jets - QB Zach Wilson (BYU)
Wilson is my personal favorite quarterback of this class, so it pains me to send him to the Jets. The last quarterback this franchise successfully developed was Chad Pennington and he was never a top 10 guy in the league. Wilson will need his legs and to stay alert behind this shoddy offensive line.
3. San Francisco 49ers - QB Justin Fields (Ohio State)
All odds favor Mac Jones here but if GM John Lynch and company continue their hot streak of good personnel decisions, then Fields SHOULD be the selection at #3. According to head coach Kyle Shanahan, they like 5(!) Quarterbacks as the pick here so it should really be one of Trey Lance, Jones and Fields. I'm not going to question how much Fields loves football, considering he just played through the entire pandemic season. Anybody that does should not be an active scout.
4. Atlanta Falcons - TE Kyle Pitts (Florida)
A competent NFL team can make a Super Bowl with Matt Ryan, this we know. Now entering his late thirties, there's plenty of skepticism in the air as to whether or not a team can win one with an aging Ryan. This is probably the last year Atlanta can dodge the responsibility of looking for a new quarterback since their defense has never been the same since their collapse versus New England. They have a pretty solid excuse built in with the best player available being a Darren Waller-type Tight End that can line up out wide and carry an offense like Pitts. Hayden Hurst was not an adequate Austin Hooper replacement and the Falcons offense (especially their run game) missed that versatility.
5. Cincinnati Bengals - OT Penei Sewell (Oregon)
"Do we protect the #1 overall pick from a year ago that had to have his ACL restructured or do we just keep letting him get hit and have the rest of the guys carry the offense with or without him?" is a real question that people are debating around Cincinnati. Stop that, this team needs line help BADLY whether Tyler Boyd leaves in 2022 or not.
6. Miami Dolphins - WR Ja'Marr Chase (LSU)
After Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson opted out due to the pandemic, Miami was left with a rotating cast of skill players that included Ryan Fitzpatrick, Salvon Ahmed and Lynn Bowden. It's time for some form of stability to come to the Dolphins and Ja'Marr Chase should be Justin Jefferson-lite with Tua Tagovailoa's steady improvement.
7. Detroit Lions - WR Jaylen Waddle (Alabama)
There will be plenty of Lion fans clamoring for their QB of the future at #7 but, I say give Jared Goff a year with at least one quality wideout (Waddle) and TE T.J. Hockenson and results may vary. In all likelihood, this is going to be a bad team no matter what but if they really wanted a quarterback, would they not have already traded up? Detroit should bet on the long term and take whomever shoots up the draft boards in '22 or '23 over playing Jones or Lance with a limited supporting cast.
8. Carolina Panthers - CB Patrick Surtain Jr. (Alabama)
(Same as Detroit but with more of an emphasis on rebuilding their post-Luke Kuechly defense).
9. Denver Broncos - LB Micah Parsons (Penn State)
Vic Fangio is a defense-first head coach and it was hard to get a grip on this offense last year without WR Courtland Sutton, a clearer backfield situation or starting tackle Ja'Wuan James. All of those things should be cleared now for a true Drew Lock prove-it season. One thing that was clear was the need for a face of the defense once Von Miller exits. His season-ending injury opened up opposing offenses to expose Alexander Johnson and Josey Jewell as inconsistent role players and not bigger pieces of the Vic Fangio scheme. Parsons will fill in any gaps left by Miller or Bradley Chubb hunting opposing quarterbacks.
10. Dallas Cowboys - CB Jaycee Horn (South Carolina)
Dallas's defense gave up in a way I had not seen from an NFL team drafting outside the top ten ever before last season. They need willing bodies with Aldon Smith, Sean Lee, Xavier Woods and Chidobe Awuzie leaving in 2021. The son of Joe Horn has been training his whole life for this and was an anchor of the Gamecocks' defense for 2.5 years before opting out of a miserable season that resulted in South Carolina coach Will Muschamp getting the boot.
11. New York Giants - LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Notre Dame)
The linebacker with the highest ceiling in the 2021 draft is absolutely something the New York Giants should be interested in. Even when their defense has performed well since their last Super Bowl, something has always been slightly off. Whether it was the Nat Berhe-is-our-best-safety years or the overreliance on Alec Ogletree at linebacker as recently as 2019. Now, they're coming off a season in which Blake Martinez was third in the NFL in tackles out of necessity. Coordinator Patrick Graham is in charge of frankenstein-ing a solid linebacking core around Martinez, Oshane Ximines, Lorenzo Carter and a bunch of other unproven pros. Owusu-Koromoah would immediately be the biggest backfield disruptor of that entire crew.
12. Philadelphia Eagles - WR DeVonta Smith (Alabama)
In an extremely winnable division (the NFC East), the Eagles have done everything in their power to plummet their stock lately by dropping Doug Pederson for first-time head coach Nick Sirianni, trading QB Carson Wentz away and handing the starting job to someone that lost his job to Tua Tagovailoa in college and completed just 52% of his rookie season's passes. If I were in charge, I'd look at a quarterback because I'm a mad man and it's not as if taking a quarterback early two years in a row is totally unprecedented (see: Arizona taking Kyler Murray one year after Josh Rosen). Unfortunately, this team still has uglier spots on the roster and if there's one thing that's remained consistent no matter who the quarterback is, it's the glaring hole that has been the wide receiver position these past two seasons. Smith is reportedly healthy now and could be better than Jaylen Waddle when all is said and done (Alabama receivers have been pretty interchangable and terrific the past decade).
13. Los Angeles Chargers - OT Rashawn Slater (Northwestern)
Even if Bryan Bulaga were healthy, this team is still trying to make Trey Pipkins happen and Trey Pipkins is not happening. The good news for LA Charger fans is that the front office won't be tantalized by some elite receiving talent with Chase, Waddle and Smith off the board, thus locking the team in as a natural destination for a hefty tackle like Rashawn Slater to keep their young investment Justin Herbert upright as they attempt to stack a Super Bowl contender around Herbert's rookie contract.
14. Minnesota Vikings - OT Christian Darrisaw (Virginia Tech)
Minnesota has gone through a ton of offensive linemen in the Kirk Cousins era and only OT Brian O'Neill and C Garrett Bradbury seem to be worthwhile keepers. Despite the defense's faltering presence this past season, they'll be better served on the field for more time together than trying to compete with the new kid in town so, give them another solid potential franchise tackle to hopefully ease the eventual transition away from Cousins if necessary.
15. New England Patriots - QB Mac Jones (Alabama)
I don't know man... Bill Belichick seems to have a good rapport with Nick Saban and Mac Jones helped Saban win his latest championship by maintaining a steady hand against Notre Dame and Ohio State. He's been very overhyped in draft circles but even I have to admit that he's not your average A.J. McCarron-type Crimson Tide QB that got carried to a title by superb supporting characters. Jones has plenty of athleticism, accuracy and could translate as a Kirk Cousins-type at the height of his powers. Unfortunately, I don't know if that's the guy Belichick needs to get back to the Super Bowl. That guy might just be on the block in San Francisco...
16. Arizona Cardinals - CB Caleb Farley (Virginia Tech)
Does testing positive for COVID the week of the draft affect one's draft stock? We're about to find out. Farley isn't Patrick Peterson but, could easily turn into a team's top corner very quickly during his rookie season. The Cardinals would also be well served looking at more offensive line assistance here, even though Kyler Murray is likely to just scramble away perfect blocking schemes no matter what.
17. Las Vegas Raiders - OT Teven Jenkins (Oklahoma State)
A sleeper destination for any of this year's quarterbacks, the Las Vegas Raiders didn't just dump 4/5ths of their offensive line to walk into 2021 with former Texan Center Nick Martin as the lone replacement blocking for an overmatched kid taking snaps from him. This team would not shock anyone by thinking outside the box and getting weird with their draft (See: Every decision in the Mike Mayock/Jon Gruden era thus far).
18. Miami Dolphins - EDGE Jaelan Phillips (Miami)
It's hard to find a better fit than a hometown (at least, in his final college season) talent at a position of need. Miami has had a tough time manufacturing a pass rushing presence with 2019 first rounder Christian Wilkins being more of a run stuffer. The losses of Kyle Van Noy and Shaq Lawson only amplify the need to address this weakness that they haven't really addressed yet this offseason.
19. Washington Football Team - LB Jamin Davis (Kentucky)
Ron Rivera has already hinted at Washington adding a QB in the draft by saying there would be an open competition at quarterback between Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taylor Heinicke and potentially others. The question is will this be the team that thinks they're one Trey Lance away from turning into a dynasty? Rivera has more of a say in Washington's personnel decisions than he did when Cam Newton was drafted to be the face of Carolina's franchise for the entirety of the time Rivera was in charge. I don't particularly believe that Rivera was thrilled with Newton as his QB outside of their Super Bowl run. We all know Lance is one hell of an athlete but, is he a Beautiful Thrower of the Football (tm) like the other four passing prospects drafted already? I think more than anything, Rivera misses a middle linebacker to plug up an already top-notch defense that would turn them into an elite unit as it is the one noticeable hole on that side of the ball. Jamin Davis is a Devin White style of talent with excellent big play ability and the potential to disrupt every aspect of opposing team's offenses once he adjusts to the NFL's slower pace of play and bigger bodies. A project? sure but, his early mistakes can be more easily masked on that side of the ball.
20. Chicago Bears - OT Alex Leatherwood (Alabama)
Chicago might just be contempt with two slightly below mid-tier quarterbacks in Nick Foles and Andy Dalton considering how much they're both being paid. This is a make or break year for every single one of Chicago's front office and coaching staff and they shouldn't dare touch a project like Trey Lance that would be sitting on the bench while Dalton and Foles get everybody fired. I doubt team ownership overrules the front office on this one and the shaky teaming of Matt Nagy/Ryan Pace just try to build something decent out of whatever the hell this offense is without Mitchell Trubisky. Leatherwood feels like a safe choice to keep Dalton upright better than the Dallas reserves did last season.
21. Indianapolis Colts - OT Jalen Mayfield (Michigan)
If an NFL team is trying to win a Super Bowl immediately with Carson Wentz as their quarterback and no emergency backup plan, they should probably be interested in plugging up their one obvious hole at tackle since Anthony Castonzo retired. 20-year old Mayfield grew up in the midwest and despite never getting to truly shine with a consistently disappointing Michigan offense, he is clearly one of this draft's strongest pass blockers with plenty of room to grow into a better run blocker as well.
22. Tennessee Titans - CB Greg Newsome (Northwestern)
Part of Northwestern's amazing turnaround from 2019 to 2020 was just how well their defense improved and Greg Newsome was the key to that comeback as he overplayed his speed ala Richard Sherman and made himself a factor all over the field. Newsome should not only be a replacement for Adoree' Jackson in the defensive backfield, he should be an improvement with more consistency.
23. New York Jets - CB Eric Stokes (Georgia)
Eric Stokes' junior season as a Bulldog caught everyone's eyes as he intercepted four passes, two for touchdowns. The Jets are desperate for someone with a nose for the football like Stokes after only intercepting ten passes in '20, including three from Drew Lock. Robert Saleh wants to show off his coaching prowess by tinkering with new tools and Stokes fits in nicely as an opening day starter for the new-look Jets.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - CB Asante Samuel Jr. (Florida State)
Along with MAYBE Buffalo (it'd be a total reach but this was a weakness of theirs come playoff time), Pittsburgh is the only team I could see realistically convincing themselves that either RB Travis Etienne or Najee Harris is a good value pick late in the first round. Ultimately, the days of ANY running back being seen as good value picks on night #1 of the NFL draft are pretty much over (Yeah, Christian McCaffrey is flashy but how many playoff wins has that translated to for Carolina?). Pittsburgh is looking a bit older (Joe Haden) and softer (lost Mike Hilton & Steven Nelson plus Justin Layne faces legal trouble) against the pass and much like flex seal perfectly fixed Phil Swift's boat, Asante Samuel Jr. would erase any missing persons from Pittsburgh's defense.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars - S Trevon Moehrig (TCU)
After the Trevor Lawrence pick, it would be understandable for the Jaguars to give him a rookie friend on offense to grow with but being the worst team in football means that this team is laced with more holes than Bonnie and Clyde's 1934 Ford Deluxe V-8. Moehrig is the top safety available and along with 2020 first-round CB C.J. Henderson, could usher in the next great Jacksonville defense if they don't trade everyone away as soon as they reach their potential again.
26. Cleveland Browns - LB Zaven Collins (Tulsa)
The Cleveland Browns have done the unthinkable and managed to create a pretty spotless roster in the imminent sense. If something very imaginable happens like new signee and EDGE rusher Jadeveon Clowney gets hurt or dips after a year, they're going to wish they had jumped at the chance to take a defensive player at pick #26. Collins is a natural, high-floor type of linebacker that could turn into so much more on a crowded, top-ten in talent defense like Cleveland's current lineup.
27. Baltimore Ravens - EDGE Azeez Ojulari (Georgia)
With the first of two late first rounders, I see the Ravens taking a pass rusher to replace Matt Judon (now on the Patriots) and possibly lead the defense going forward after they struggled to get anything going with Calais Campbell sidelined for four weeks. If this dude could dominate in the SEC, he can make a role for himself in the NFL.
28. New Orleans Saints - CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (Syracuse)
A possible safety at the next level, Melifonwu is the top pass defender left on the board and the Saints need someone to replace Janoris Jenkins for cheap with their cap space issues continuing to follow them into the post-Drew Brees era. Trey Lance is enticing but, this is still a playoff roster with at least one proven quarterback (Jameis Winston) and one whatever the hell Taysom Hill is.
29. Green Bay Packers - OL Alijah Vera-Tucker (USC)
All-Pro Tackle David Bakhtiari is still recovering from an ACL injury and Green Bay let both Lane Taylor and Corey Linsley walk in free agency. Bakhtiari will be back at some point in '21 but, the interior of this offensive line is now a question mark for the first time in years with Jon Runyan Jr. and Lucas Patrick in line for more playing time. Alijah Vera-Tucker started out as a guard and moved out to Tackle for the Trojans his junior year, shining wherever he lined up. Head coach Matt LaFleur seems to love moving Billy Turner around and that has worked thus far in Green Bay's favor so, Vera-Tucker has to entice the offensive minds in charge here. They may also be able to trade back into the second and still land this target if they so desired.
30. Buffalo Bills - EDGE Kwity Paye (Michigan)
The Bills are not missing much on their depth chart and are not too far away from a Super Bowl appearance so it would not stun anyone to see them trade up for a talent they like. I could see Kwity Paye go as high as #9 or as low as #39, either way I think Buffalo would be wise to go ALL IN on one more dominant disruptor to force more errant Patrick Mahomes or Baker Mayfield passes. Hell, they'll need him to shut down scramblers like Tua, Cam and possibly Zach Wilson in the AFC East now.
31. Baltimore Ravens - S Richie Grant (UCF)
Packaging pick #27 and this pick, acquired for OT Orlando Brown Jr. from KC to a team with a pick around #16 would be one option for Baltimore but with the Earl Thomas experiment leaving a bitter taste in their mouths, I get the feeling they still aren't satisfied with their defensive unit as a whole. I already projected their edge-rusher selection in Azeez Ojulari and now, they'll want to address the less frequent passes that actually get thrown against them. Grant is about as experienced as it gets in this draft as his value continued to rise through his redshirt senior season at UCF. He may not be the defensive leader or communicator that so many other defenses desperately need but, Baltimore is doing just fine with Marlon Humphrey and Chuck Clark spotting holes and filling them quickly, they just need another willing, ball hawk in the backfield and Grant fits the definition to a tee.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - QB Trey Lance (North Dakota State)
Lol, this dude could go #3. One of these five day-one talents at quarterback is going to slip and slide and Lance just doesn't have the reputation on the field quite yet to warrant the praise he's received after a short stint at North Dakota State (288 pass attempts) following a high school career that saw him throw 113 passes. I don't care if he threw 0 interceptions in college, are we seriously sold on the guy with 401 passing attempts to his name? That's like 2/3rds of a season from Matthew Stafford. Drew Bledsoe wouldn't draft this guy. Speaking of Bledsoe, his former backup Tom Brady is going to be 44 this season and the Buccaneers re-signed all 22 starters for the upcoming season so, what else is there for this team to do than add depth at positions of future need? I don't care how good he is, we've never seen anybody last as long as Brady and once he's 47, Tampa should be ready to move on if he hasn't already. If he's not willing to accept that he has to become a tutor to Lance eventually, then he's just an asshole. This is the only team I like Lance as a fit for. Anywhere else and I'd be concerned for his future.
