Tuesday, November 18, 2014

The Worst Fantasy Football Season Ever & College Playoff Confusion

There is a reason I haven't done any fantasy analysis after week one this season and that reason is that nobody has had any idea what the hell they are doing ALL. SEASON. LONG. It's been the most unpredictable football season in results (The Rams have beaten 3 out of 4 conference championship players from a year ago) and for fantasy purposes. Your team may have survived the fantasy season from hell by making shrewd draft picks like Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, Matt Forte', Antonio Brown, Kelvin Benjamin, any Packer at all really, and Gronk but there has been more unpredictable occurrences this year than in any of my other eleven years playing fantasy football. For instance, if you drafted any Quarterback outside of Rodgers, Manning, Brady (and kept him past week 4), Luck, and Russell Wilson, you probably got completely screwed over by Tony Romo's back, Cam Newton's offensive line and Philip Rivers' inconsistencies. BEN ROETHLISBERGER THREW SIX TOUCHDOWN PASSES TWO WEEKS IN A ROW FOR PETE'S SAKE! That was even probably the hardest position to screw up this preseason. If you went Running Back with your first two picks, I send my condolences to your fantasy team. Let me go in depth on how awful this season was for Running Backs.

15/32 running backs who lead their team in fantasy points were expected to start at the beginning of the season

Lamar Miller - Would've probably been in a 60/40 split with Knowshon Moreno if it weren't for Moreno's injury.
Le'Veon Bell - Breakout season, only seen as a 2nd-rounder but has turned into a top-5 pick for sure next season.
Arian Foster - Lingering injuries have kept his expectations down despite a successful comeback season when healthy.
Bishop Sankey - Just recently started getting a majority of Tennessee's carries and has yet to have a meaningful game.
Jamaal Charles - Did miss one game and three quarters of another game but, continues to be a first-round value.
DeMarco Murray - Time will tell if he can keep up his excellent pace as this constant health-risk has stayed healthy and a steal for anybody lucky enough to draft him in the second round.
Rashad Jennings - Was supposed to break out until injuries took him out of four games.
Alfred Morris - Hasn't quite lived up to past success but remains a solid fantasy Running Back despite the awful team he's on.
LeSean McCoy - Everybody had him in their top three picks and he isn't averaging 4 yards per carry. Colossal disappointment who's only topped 100 rushing yards twice in ten games.
Eddie Lacy - Has improved in the passing game after a slow September. After all the early season Trent Richardson comparisons, he's lived up to first-round billing.
Matt Forte' - PPR MVP candidate has done everything except get the goal-line carries necessary for #1 fantasy player status.
Steven Jackson - The most boring Running Back to own in fantasy who continues his decline in Atlanta with only one game of over 60 rushing yards and completely touchdown-reliant value.
Frank Gore - In the preseason every single season, we expect Frank Gore's decline to begin. This year appears to have finally been the season when we were all right despite flashes of young Gore every now and then.
MarShawn Lynch - A tad bit more inconsistent than previous Seattle years, Lynch is back to being a #1 RB after the Seahawks tried passing more often in the first half of the season.
Andre Ellington - Hasn't been that good of an NFL running back (only averages 3.4 yards per carry) but, the volume of carries he's gotten in the wake of Jonathan Dwyer's suspension and Stepfan Taylor's injury have given him consistent importance.

(Stevan Ridley, C.J. Spiller, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Ben Tate, Giovanni Bernard, Trent Richardson, Toby Gerhart, Ryan Mathews, Montee' Ball, Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Bush, #1 overall pick Adrian Peterson, the Saints RB conundrum, DeAngelo Williams, Doug Martin, and Zac Stacy being the 17 disappointments for various reasons)

What does it all mean? It means if you were one of the many fantasy owners to think "Oh, he starts! I might as well pick him up!", you were horribly wrong. Next season, unless you can get a top 10 Running Back who doesn't end up suspended, just avoid the position altogether until a later round. If you can get a random journeyman turned top-10 RB like Justin Forsett or a college QB turned consistent NFL RB like Denard Robinson off the waiver wire, why go anything other than Quarterback, Jimmy Graham, Gronkowski, or the NFL's best receiver in the first round? It was bad enough when the NFL was making Running Backs less meaningful, now they've become completely unreliable and unpredictable for fantasy purposes (Best example: 8 TD's were scored on the ground by RB's this weekend. 2 by Jamaal Charles, 1 by his backup Knile Davis, 1 for Eddie Lacy and a whopping 4 by the unknown former-Notre Dame Running Back Jonas Gray who had 201 yards Sunday night after having ONE 100-yard game in his entire COLLEGE career).

(AP Photo/AJ Mast)
Jonas Gray is now the only NFL RB to ever come into a game with 0 career TD's and leave with 4.
At receiver, if you were smart enough to draft rookie superstars like Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, or Jordan Matthews, you're probably feeling pretty good right now but, if you drafted A.J. Green or Calvin Johnson, you had to sit through weeks of uncertainty due to injuries and inconsistent play. There weren't as many problems at this position but, Antonio Brown as the #1 overall receiver was a surprise to even me, an Antonio Brown owner in multiple leagues. Thankfully, every receiver of importance is healthy and Josh Gordon is finally back to give us some extra "flash" in these last six weeks.

Tight End was hyped up as some deep position all summer long and as it turns out, only three have been consistently worth a damn (Rob Gronkowski, Julius Thomas, and Jimmy Graham when he isn't hurt). Greg Olsen and Antonio Gates have had big weeks but, have also left fantasy owners wanting more in other weeks. The kicker position has been the kicker position and there's not a whole lot to say there but, Defense/Special Teams has been more unpredictable than ever before with the weekly shocker of a St. Louis team beating a Denver and the downward trend of defense as a whole in the NFL with the continuously impossible-to-play-defense rules introduced every year.

Overall, I'm sure I'm with every fantasy loser this season when I say it has been the worst season ever.

ON TO MY COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS! (Sorry for the blinding color schemes, blame the schools)

#1. Florida State
#2. Alabama
#3. Oregon
#4. TCU
#5. Baylor
#6. Ohio State
#7. Mississippi State
#8. Georgia
#9. Michigan State
#10. Ole Miss
#11. Marshall
#12. UCLA
#13. Arizona State
#14. Arizona
#15. Wisconsin
#16. Kansas State
#17. Colorado State
#18. Georgia Tech
#19. Missouri
#20. Auburn
#21. Boise State
#22. Utah
#23. Nebraska
#24. Duke
#25. USC

That looks about right. Marcus Mariota's career has been building up to a matchup against Alabama where he'll finally have a chance along with the rest of the Ducks to prove that they are every bit as real of a contender as the overhyped SEC schools. Florida State would take on TCU in an awesome shootout of a game as TCU no longer looks like the best team in college football after a strangely close win over Kansas.

Your 2014 Heisman Winner (so far) is...

Wisconsin Running Back Melvin Gordon
Photo via: Jim Oxley
408 yards later... 
Where would the Badgers be without Melvin Gordon III? Probably around .500 and relying on their defense to claw out wins. Some people are hesitant to give Gordon the Heisman based on one game but... HE BROKE THE FBS RECORD FOR RUSHING YARDS IN A GAME... IN THREE QUARTERS!!! Not only has he accomplished that but, he also leads the nation in rushing, will be the first Running Back picked next year since Georgia's Todd Gurley tore his ACL and is basically one Marcus Mariota loss away from locking up the award no matter what else happens the rest of the College Football season. The Badgers could lose every game remaining on their schedule and it would not matter, this kid has outperformed every college player in the nation and that is the definition of a Heisman Trophy winner. 

Now, one last bit of confusion to settle: What's the point in releasing the rankings tonight on ESPN when there's still a few weeks left? Ratings and that's it. There's no legitimate reason for these rankings to be released outside of viewership totals for the mothership, ESPN. Honestly, we won't have any real idea as to whom the top 4 in the college playoff is until the conference championship games are decided and THAT is when the real speculation should begin. Anything up until that point is simply click-bait including this whole blog post you've just read. 

Thanks for clicking and good luck to your football teams of choice! 

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

All Aboard the TCU Bandwagon!: College Football Update

After watching three blowout games in primetime, I think it's as good a time as any to ask "What's the state of the NFL?" Is it better or worse than it was a year ago? how about five years? Thirty? Unless we're talking about the state of fantasy football, I'd say the NFL is much worse off than any season since the replacement players of 1987. There is no clear front-runner team, only obvious cellar-dwellars like Oakland, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay, Adrian Peterson and Ray Rice will both be eligible to play before the end of the season due to the clumsiness of an overmatched commissioner, and nobody will ever get close to Emmitt Smith's career rushing record again as long as QB's are consistently throwing 45 touchdowns and 5,000 yards. None of the career stat records mean anything anymore unlike literally every other sport and that's the most tragic of losses in this era.

Now, onto happier discussions!...

My College Football Ranks (and only mine)
Tim Heitman - USA TODAY Sports
Trevone Boykin is the engine of the TCU hype-train.
#1. TCU - Previously, TCU was only known for their defense but that has changed with QB Trevone Boykin and the most underrated offensive line in college. Every one of their wins has been dominant and their one loss was a 58-61 heartbreaker to Baylor (another very good team). This weekend's 41-20 obliteration of Bill Snyder's Kansas State team was a statement game. The statement being: You really think Alabama's offense is better than ours? Watch this... Gary Patterson deserves NFL coaching offers with the incredible job he's done with this team.

#2. Mississippi State - UT-Martin? Really? Ok, but could you not give up any points... Wait, you gave up 16 to UT-Martin? I don't know what to think about that other than nothing positive. Mississippi State loses their 1-seed based on not making sure the University of Tennessee-Martin ceased to exist after this game.

#3. Florida State - Point shaving rumors, crab legs, rape allegations. Jameis Winston has two months left to stay out of trouble, can he please just stay out of the limelight for 60 days?

#4. Oregon - They would've won even if Utah's WR Kaelin Clay didn't drop it at the 1.

#5. Alabama - Some people like good defensive games, some people hate good defensive games. Everybody hates bad football games and the Crimson Tide's overtime win over LSU was just plain awful football. Mississippi State could severely damage their playoff hopes this week.

#6. Arizona State - Head coach Todd Graham needs to make sure this team doesn't nearly blow 32-point leads like they almost did this Saturday. Notre Dame should've never been back in the game at any point after the first quarter. The good news is the Sun Devils still won 55-31 and put it away in the fourth but, I have trouble trusting this team to ever be this high in the ranks again this year.

#7. Baylor - This team will be higher next week thanks to a week off and they've earned it with a 48-14 second-half shutout of the Oklahoma Sooners. The running game is back after losing Lache Seastrunk to the NFL in the off-season.

#8. Ohio State - There's a new dilemma in Columbus as J.T. Barrett is nearly performing at the same level as injured QB Braxton Miller and both QB's will be back next season. This week's win over Michigan State was huge but, can they take down the red-hot Minnesota Golden Gophers?

#9. Auburn - They did just barely lose to Texas A&M (38-41) but, a loss in the SEC is hard to come back from and Auburn still has to face Georgia (Now featuring Todd Gurley!) and Alabama.

#10. Ole Miss - The defense was impressive but, it's hard now to look impressive versus Presbyterian. 48-0 means nothing when you face a nothing team thus, improving their ranking by one spot.

#11. Michigan State - I'm still not a believer in Connor Cook and the defense seriously blew their 37-49 loss to Ohio State. If both sides are suddenly an issue, the Spartans aren't going to end the year in the top 20.

#12. Nebraska - This week's showdown versus Wisconsin will define the Cornhuskers' defense. We already know that they don't have a Quarterback and Ameer Abdullah is a Heisman-level runner, now it's time for everybody else to step up.

#13. Marshall - Strength of schedule, shmength of shmedule. This team is fun, undefeated, and we'll never know how good they are until the committee takes them semi-seriously.

#14. Kansas State - Their second loss was a gloomy reminder that QB Jake Waters just isn't a great quarterback. Also, the defense doesn't seem to show up in big games. As long as Tyler Lockett is around, this team will irritate opponents even though there are no other threats on this roster.

#15. UCLA - No matter how many losses and bad games UCLA has, Brett Hundley just keeps them hanging around.

#16. Arizona - Colorado was an easy opponent that Arizona never really put the dagger in but, they still won and Rich Rodriguez's comeback season continues at home against the Washington Huskies.

#17. Duke - Do people hate Duke football the same way they hate Duke basketball? Is Duke football a feel-good, Cinderella story? Will they ever get the respect they've earned this season? Nobody knows the answers to any of these questions. Thank god they have three games left to figure out the answers on this mesmerizing team.

#18. Georgia - Todd Gurley is back and they scored 63 points on Kentucky last week. Watch out, rest of SEC.

#19. Notre Dame - Everett Golson's 3-week turnover-less streak was a fun ride. Turn out the lights, the party's over.

#20. Clemson - They'll figure out a way to Clemson away a game yet this season but for now, they're barely getting by and are a top 20 team... I guess?

#21. Wisconsin - Wisconsin is quite similar to Nebraska although, their defense is already defined as a very nice unit with many sharp players. If they lose, Wisconsin is done in the Top 25.

#22. Georgia Tech - The offense seems to be rolling on all cylinders but, games against Clemson and Georgia will likely destroy this team's bowl game hopes.

#23. Oklahoma - Trevor Knight's injury doesn't appear to be serious so, Oklahoma should be back at 100% after a crushing loss to Baylor.

#24. Colorado State - Nobody else is deserving of being ranked so, why not the 9-1 Rams?

#25. Minnesota - Remember the scene from the first Kill Bill with the crazy 88's? Nothing was getting between Uma Thurman killing Lucy Liu. Minnesota is Uma and Iowa was Lucy Liu. I found myself in as much disbelief watching that game as I did Kill Bill. They are killing off all of their rivals and Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin are next in line. It's going to be great rivalry football coming up.

My Heisman Ballot
Russ Isabella - USA TODAY Sports
My against-the-grain Heisman choice in a week when everyone loves Dak Prescott
#1. QB Marcus Mariota (Oregon) - 67.1%-2,780-29 TD-2 INT, 524 Rushing yards-8 TD's
#2. QB Dak Prescott (Mississippi State) - 60.9%-2,222-18 TD-7 INT, 779 Rushing yards-11 TD's
#3. RB Melvin Gordon III (Wisconsin) - 1,501 Rushing yards-7.6 YPC-19 TD's
#4. RB Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska) - 1,250 Rushing yards-6.7 YPC-17 TD's
#5. QB Trevone Boykin (TCU) - 58%-2,691-23 TD-4 INT, 546 Rushing yards-7 TD's

Good luck to your teams and please NFL, have some entertaining prime-time games this weekend!