Tuesday, November 18, 2014

The Worst Fantasy Football Season Ever & College Playoff Confusion

There is a reason I haven't done any fantasy analysis after week one this season and that reason is that nobody has had any idea what the hell they are doing ALL. SEASON. LONG. It's been the most unpredictable football season in results (The Rams have beaten 3 out of 4 conference championship players from a year ago) and for fantasy purposes. Your team may have survived the fantasy season from hell by making shrewd draft picks like Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, Matt Forte', Antonio Brown, Kelvin Benjamin, any Packer at all really, and Gronk but there has been more unpredictable occurrences this year than in any of my other eleven years playing fantasy football. For instance, if you drafted any Quarterback outside of Rodgers, Manning, Brady (and kept him past week 4), Luck, and Russell Wilson, you probably got completely screwed over by Tony Romo's back, Cam Newton's offensive line and Philip Rivers' inconsistencies. BEN ROETHLISBERGER THREW SIX TOUCHDOWN PASSES TWO WEEKS IN A ROW FOR PETE'S SAKE! That was even probably the hardest position to screw up this preseason. If you went Running Back with your first two picks, I send my condolences to your fantasy team. Let me go in depth on how awful this season was for Running Backs.

15/32 running backs who lead their team in fantasy points were expected to start at the beginning of the season

Lamar Miller - Would've probably been in a 60/40 split with Knowshon Moreno if it weren't for Moreno's injury.
Le'Veon Bell - Breakout season, only seen as a 2nd-rounder but has turned into a top-5 pick for sure next season.
Arian Foster - Lingering injuries have kept his expectations down despite a successful comeback season when healthy.
Bishop Sankey - Just recently started getting a majority of Tennessee's carries and has yet to have a meaningful game.
Jamaal Charles - Did miss one game and three quarters of another game but, continues to be a first-round value.
DeMarco Murray - Time will tell if he can keep up his excellent pace as this constant health-risk has stayed healthy and a steal for anybody lucky enough to draft him in the second round.
Rashad Jennings - Was supposed to break out until injuries took him out of four games.
Alfred Morris - Hasn't quite lived up to past success but remains a solid fantasy Running Back despite the awful team he's on.
LeSean McCoy - Everybody had him in their top three picks and he isn't averaging 4 yards per carry. Colossal disappointment who's only topped 100 rushing yards twice in ten games.
Eddie Lacy - Has improved in the passing game after a slow September. After all the early season Trent Richardson comparisons, he's lived up to first-round billing.
Matt Forte' - PPR MVP candidate has done everything except get the goal-line carries necessary for #1 fantasy player status.
Steven Jackson - The most boring Running Back to own in fantasy who continues his decline in Atlanta with only one game of over 60 rushing yards and completely touchdown-reliant value.
Frank Gore - In the preseason every single season, we expect Frank Gore's decline to begin. This year appears to have finally been the season when we were all right despite flashes of young Gore every now and then.
MarShawn Lynch - A tad bit more inconsistent than previous Seattle years, Lynch is back to being a #1 RB after the Seahawks tried passing more often in the first half of the season.
Andre Ellington - Hasn't been that good of an NFL running back (only averages 3.4 yards per carry) but, the volume of carries he's gotten in the wake of Jonathan Dwyer's suspension and Stepfan Taylor's injury have given him consistent importance.

(Stevan Ridley, C.J. Spiller, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Ben Tate, Giovanni Bernard, Trent Richardson, Toby Gerhart, Ryan Mathews, Montee' Ball, Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Bush, #1 overall pick Adrian Peterson, the Saints RB conundrum, DeAngelo Williams, Doug Martin, and Zac Stacy being the 17 disappointments for various reasons)

What does it all mean? It means if you were one of the many fantasy owners to think "Oh, he starts! I might as well pick him up!", you were horribly wrong. Next season, unless you can get a top 10 Running Back who doesn't end up suspended, just avoid the position altogether until a later round. If you can get a random journeyman turned top-10 RB like Justin Forsett or a college QB turned consistent NFL RB like Denard Robinson off the waiver wire, why go anything other than Quarterback, Jimmy Graham, Gronkowski, or the NFL's best receiver in the first round? It was bad enough when the NFL was making Running Backs less meaningful, now they've become completely unreliable and unpredictable for fantasy purposes (Best example: 8 TD's were scored on the ground by RB's this weekend. 2 by Jamaal Charles, 1 by his backup Knile Davis, 1 for Eddie Lacy and a whopping 4 by the unknown former-Notre Dame Running Back Jonas Gray who had 201 yards Sunday night after having ONE 100-yard game in his entire COLLEGE career).

(AP Photo/AJ Mast)
Jonas Gray is now the only NFL RB to ever come into a game with 0 career TD's and leave with 4.
At receiver, if you were smart enough to draft rookie superstars like Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, or Jordan Matthews, you're probably feeling pretty good right now but, if you drafted A.J. Green or Calvin Johnson, you had to sit through weeks of uncertainty due to injuries and inconsistent play. There weren't as many problems at this position but, Antonio Brown as the #1 overall receiver was a surprise to even me, an Antonio Brown owner in multiple leagues. Thankfully, every receiver of importance is healthy and Josh Gordon is finally back to give us some extra "flash" in these last six weeks.

Tight End was hyped up as some deep position all summer long and as it turns out, only three have been consistently worth a damn (Rob Gronkowski, Julius Thomas, and Jimmy Graham when he isn't hurt). Greg Olsen and Antonio Gates have had big weeks but, have also left fantasy owners wanting more in other weeks. The kicker position has been the kicker position and there's not a whole lot to say there but, Defense/Special Teams has been more unpredictable than ever before with the weekly shocker of a St. Louis team beating a Denver and the downward trend of defense as a whole in the NFL with the continuously impossible-to-play-defense rules introduced every year.

Overall, I'm sure I'm with every fantasy loser this season when I say it has been the worst season ever.

ON TO MY COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS! (Sorry for the blinding color schemes, blame the schools)

#1. Florida State
#2. Alabama
#3. Oregon
#4. TCU
#5. Baylor
#6. Ohio State
#7. Mississippi State
#8. Georgia
#9. Michigan State
#10. Ole Miss
#11. Marshall
#12. UCLA
#13. Arizona State
#14. Arizona
#15. Wisconsin
#16. Kansas State
#17. Colorado State
#18. Georgia Tech
#19. Missouri
#20. Auburn
#21. Boise State
#22. Utah
#23. Nebraska
#24. Duke
#25. USC

That looks about right. Marcus Mariota's career has been building up to a matchup against Alabama where he'll finally have a chance along with the rest of the Ducks to prove that they are every bit as real of a contender as the overhyped SEC schools. Florida State would take on TCU in an awesome shootout of a game as TCU no longer looks like the best team in college football after a strangely close win over Kansas.

Your 2014 Heisman Winner (so far) is...

Wisconsin Running Back Melvin Gordon
Photo via: Jim Oxley
408 yards later... 
Where would the Badgers be without Melvin Gordon III? Probably around .500 and relying on their defense to claw out wins. Some people are hesitant to give Gordon the Heisman based on one game but... HE BROKE THE FBS RECORD FOR RUSHING YARDS IN A GAME... IN THREE QUARTERS!!! Not only has he accomplished that but, he also leads the nation in rushing, will be the first Running Back picked next year since Georgia's Todd Gurley tore his ACL and is basically one Marcus Mariota loss away from locking up the award no matter what else happens the rest of the College Football season. The Badgers could lose every game remaining on their schedule and it would not matter, this kid has outperformed every college player in the nation and that is the definition of a Heisman Trophy winner. 

Now, one last bit of confusion to settle: What's the point in releasing the rankings tonight on ESPN when there's still a few weeks left? Ratings and that's it. There's no legitimate reason for these rankings to be released outside of viewership totals for the mothership, ESPN. Honestly, we won't have any real idea as to whom the top 4 in the college playoff is until the conference championship games are decided and THAT is when the real speculation should begin. Anything up until that point is simply click-bait including this whole blog post you've just read. 

Thanks for clicking and good luck to your football teams of choice! 

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