Tuesday, December 2, 2014

College Football 2014 Conference Championship Previews

Coming Soon: End of the year wrap-ups including the top songs & albums in music of 2014, Bowl game picks, NFL Season recap and before you know it, it'll be 2015 and I'll be in basketball mode!

The College football conference championship matchups are decided and we can now rejoice... until a few upsets murky up the playoff/bowl picture even more than they already have been by rivalry week. If you have troubles keeping track of which teams are in which divisions or conferences, don't worry because you are not alone (Georgia Tech in the ACC? 16 teams in the SEC? What!?). It's not really worth remembering which teams are where they are unless they're above .500 at the end of the year since, in all likelihood, they'll be in the race for the conference championship season finale. Before I get to previewing the conference games, here is my Top 25 rankings and a Heisman update in a week that made me change my mind on which player should get the esteemed award.

The AT (Andy Todd) Top 25
#1. Alabama Crimson Tide - Okay, I get it. They've beaten Auburn 55-44 in a game where Blake Sims was forced to finally show us his full potential and after a putrid first half, he started looking for the one reason this team is #1 in the ranks, Wide Receiver Amari Cooper (13 catches, 224 yards, 3 TD's). It's been a while since I've last seen 'Bama as a #1 team but, with their reputation, coaching, and only weakness being at Quarterback, it's hard to find enough reasons to not put them at #1 (other than the fact that Florida State is undefeated).


Alabama QB Blake Sims threw 3 TD's and 0 INT's after 1 TD, 3 INTs and backup Jake Coker warming up on the sidelines.

#2. Oregon Ducks - If their shutdown of a win over rival Oregon State (47-19 and it wasn't even THAT close) didn't impress you, nothing will. Mark Helfrich has done enough to prove that he's not just a lesser coach being used in mop-up duty with Chip Kelly's players. The defense appears to be playing at full strength consistently for the first time since the now-Eagles coach left and the O-Line is playing better as they get healthier. Oregon will be a force in the final four for certain if they win the Pac-12 Championship.

#3. Florida State Seminoles - I'm tired of defending this team. Florida State is nowhere near as good as they were last season and despite being undefeated, has yet to impress me in any major act outside of pulling out clutch wins. The point-shaving rumors have gone away but the closeness of some of these games and the suddenly-turnover prone Jameis Winston (4 INT's this Saturday) have made me at least a tad suspicious even though I really don't think that's what is going on. If I'm an NFL general manager, Winston has not shown me enough to consider him a first-round pick. The underlying story behind this 12-0 team's struggles is how bad the defense is compared to it's greatness last season. They won't be winning the championship if they play like they did in their uninspiring 24-19 win over Florida.

#4. TCU Horned Frogs - Still a very good team, TCU will still only get the #4 spot due to the sterling reputation of Nick Saban, Marcus Mariota, and an undefeated team. Head Coach Gary Patterson's squad has made a very good case for the playoffs with a 48-10 win over Texas where they outplayed the Longhorns in every facet of the game in the fourth quarter. The defense is closer to being on the same level as it was back in 2011 and Trevone Boykin is a slightly better college Quarterback than Andy Dalton was. TCU was an incredibly dominant team under Patterson in 2011 and I could see them winning the NCAA Championship if the rankers get the Horned Frog's ranking correct.

#5. Ohio State Buckeyes - The Big Ten Championship is going to be the most interesting and unpredictable of all this weekend's games thanks to the sad injury of Heisman candidate Quarterback J.T. Barrett (Broken Ankle, out for the year). Barrett's injury should not affect the Buckeyes' ranking in any way but, Ohio State's performance this Saturday should and they performed well with both Barrett and his backup, Cardale "We ain't come to play SCHOOL" Jones. With a 42-28 win over Michigan and with Mississippi State's loss, Ohio State should move up a spot even though they might not be there for long with a tough match-up against Wisconsin coming.

Never forget.

#6. Baylor Bears - Baylor better hope QB Bryce Petty is healthy. Once Seth Russell came in at Quarterback, Art Briles' team collapsed defensively for no good reason other than 4-8 Texas Tech is a pass-heavy team and they threw their way back into a game that should've honestly had at least gone to overtime (a failed two-point conversion ended up winning the game 48-46 for Baylor). Since the Big-12 has no championship game, Baylor gets Kansas State next week in a random game that's actually quite good and somewhat better than some of the actual championship games. Baylor's entire season depends on this weekend's game.

#7. Arizona Wildcats - Behind Running Back Nick Wilson's three touchdowns, Arizona snuck out a win over in-state rivals and #13 as of last week, Arizona State. This isn't Arizona's first huge victory. The Wildcats are the one team to defeat Oregon this season and with Scooby Wright on defense, they are certainly in contention for a playoff spot with a rematch this week on FOX at 8 PM CT. It'll be the most tense, non-Iron Bowl face-off of the year so far.

#8. Wisconsin Badgers - Melvin Gordon has broken the Big Ten record for rushing yards in a season with eleventy-billion yards (more like 2,260 rushing yards if we're feeling specific). Joel Stave might be an incredibly mediocre Quarterback but, with Gordon, an above-average offensive line, and one of the nation's most underrated defenses, Wisconsin is suddenly within spitting distance of a playoff spot (but don't get your hopes up, Badger fans) if they can beat Ohio State's bruised team. 

Any team listed ninth or lower practically has no chance at making the playoffs so this is where I stop talking about the pros and cons of each squad and just leave a small note as to where the team is at currently. 

#9. Mississippi State Bulldogs - They needed to beat Ole Miss to stick with the one-loss teams.
#10. Kansas State Wildcats - Seriously impressive 51-13 crushing of Kansas.
#11. Michigan State Spartans - Wake me up when they face a real opponent.
#12. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - This team is succeeding despite their Quarterback and defense will be key against Florida State.
#13. Missouri Tigers - Winning the SEC-west was nice, now Alabama is a serious test.
#14. Ole Miss Rebels - They won the Egg Bowl and that might be it for their once feel-good season.
#15. Georgia Bulldogs - Their losses are weak and their wins are strong. I'm just impressed by the resiliency within their run game.
#16. Boise State Broncos - Jay Ajayi is an incredible college Running Back and Grant Hedrick is a good QB.
#17. UCLA Bruins - The most disappointing team in college football this season.
#18. Clemson Tigers - DeShaun Watson is playing with a Torn ACL? Sounds dangerous for both player and team.
#19. Arizona State Sun Devils - The collapse is in full motion after losing to Arizona.
#20. Oklahoma Sooners - How will Samaje Perine perform in his first game since 427?
#21. Auburn Tigers - They needed to take full advantage of their game against Alabama and instead, ended up firing DC Ellis Johnson.
#22. Louisville Cardinals - Barrrrrrrrrely beat Kentucky.
#23. Minnesota Golden Gophers - QB Mitch Leidner has been exposed as a passer.
#24. Utah Utes - Etching out a win over 2-10 Colorado is only enough to move you past Marshall.
#25. LSU Tigers - Texas A&M might not be as "quality" of an opponent as they were at the beginning of the season but, a win is a win.

Falling from the Ranks: #24 Marshall Thundering Herd. I am so glad I went out of my way, specifically to watch the Herd face Western Kentucky on FOXSports1 at 11 AM Friday morning because, it was the craziest game I've seen all season. Just take a look at these stats...

- UWK QB Brandon Doughty threw for 491 yards, 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions against a defense that had not allowed more than 27 points (!) in a game this year. I really like what I saw from Doughty and judging on his numbers this year, he could make a significant impact with a bigger football school next season.

 Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports
I really liked what I saw and think the NFL could be in Brandon Doughty's future.

- Marshall QB Rakeem Cato threw 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. I have lost all trust I previously had in Cato. His field vision is weak.

- For the second time in FBS history, BOTH teams had a Running Back rush for 200+ yards (Leon Allen of W. Kentucky & Steward Butler for Marshall).

- A kicker got hurt on a blocked field goal.

- No defensive touchdowns were scored.

- Marshall's leading receiver, Davonte Allen, was ejected for having two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties.

Western Kentucky and Marshall combined for 133 points. Including Friday's game, SMU has scored 106 points all season.

- The game was decided by a two-point conversion in Overtime when Western Kentucky's Head Coach Jeff Brohm decided he did not want a second overtime.

and according to ESPN...

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook knew there was going to be a lot of points scored in Western Kentucky-Marshall, as the 76 over/under was the 2nd-highest mark of any of the games today or tomorrow (behind the 80 in Baylor-Texas Tech). The over hit with 7:23 remaining in the 2nd quarter.

Best. Game. Ever.

Heisman Race

#1. Oregon QB Marcus Mariota
#2. Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon III

Nobody else is even close to those two.


 (Ryan Kang/Emerald)
It's impossible to argue against someone with just 2 interceptions this season.

Conference Championship Previews
Pac-12 Championship (9 PM ET on FOX): Oregon v. Arizona in Santa Clara, CA
(AP Photo/The Register-Guard)
This stripping of the ball was the difference in Arizona's upset over Oregon earlier in the year.
Arizona's defense has come through in the clutch many times this season and their reward for that is another difficult matchup with Oregon. The Wildcats have already upset Oregon 31-24 in October and nearly didn't even complete that as Mariota committed one of his 3(!!!) turnovers all season thanks to Linebacker Scooby Wright. Coach Rich Rodriguez needs not only for his defense to hold steady but for QB Anu Solomon to go back to exceeding expectations as he was earlier in the season but, has lost down the home stretch. Meanwhile, Oregon's defense needs to show up the way they did against Oregon State and shut down every receiver on the field.

My Pick: Arizona 42-33

Conference USA Championship Game (12 PM ET on ESPN2): Louisiana Tech @ Marshall
(Photo: Dacia Idom/Gannett Louisiana)
Can LA Tech QB Cody Sokol recreate the magic that he had last week against Rice?
Louisiana Tech is coming off of a 76-31 win over Rice and Marshall, a 66-67 loss to Western Kentucky. Those are real football scores, not basketball. The CUSA is chock full of teams with no defense whatsoever but, considering Marshall's success against teams within the conference, there should at least be some semblance of defense in West Virginia Saturday morning. This game's result all comes down to how downtrodden Marshall looks after one of the most painful losses for any football team in 2014.

My Pick: Marshall 41-20

SEC Championship Game (4 PM ET on CBS): Alabama v. Missouri in Atlanta, GA
Can Missouri's defense contain T.J. Yeldon or will they be too focused on other Crimson Tide weapons?

Alabama has rolled over every opponent this season besides a streaky Ole Miss squad that played superior defense one afternoon in October. It's December now and that means it's Saban season in the SEC. No other coach in the conference has had the success he's had and with Les Miles not involved in this game, I like his chances. Missouri has shown that they too are pretty talented on defense and should be able to keep up with Alabama until the fourth quarter when everyone realizes that one team has Amari Cooper and the other (Missouri) does not.

My Pick: Alabama 27-10

ACC Championship Game (8 PM ET on ABC): Florida State v. Georgia Tech in Charlotte, NC
Georgia Tech's #1 weapon in the passing game (WR DeAndre Smelter) is out with a torn ACL.
Florida State's streak of constantly winning close games is on the line as they face state-neighbors Georgia Tech. Unlike any of Florida State's close matchups, Georgia Tech has zero passing game period with their only passing option (WR DeAndre Smelter) injured. Jameis Winston will probably have moments where he looks like he's trying to hand Georgia Tech the game but, this team is no match for the defending national champions.

My Pick: Florida State 20-0 (Boring game, watch the next game instead)

Big Ten Championship Game (8:17 PM ET on FOX): Wisconsin v. Ohio State in Indianapolis
In my personal favorite matchup of the day, two defenses will be the deciding factors on who wins the Big Ten.
Consider this the Cardale Jones - Joel Stave game. Which Quarterback will look the closest to competent? Urban Meyer has already replaced one injured Heisman candidate (Braxton Miller) with another (J.T. Barrett), why can't he do it again if only for two games? The underlying story of this matchup is two of the more underrated defenses in the nation with future-NFLers like Ohio State's Joey Bosa & Michael Bennett and Wisconsin's Peniel Jean & Michael Caputo. It will be a hellish game for both QB's and Wisconsin Running Back Melvin Gordon will probably be figured out at some point (I mean, he's due for one bad game, right?) by a rival defense.

My Pick: Wisconsin 35-17

Mountain West Championship Game (10 PM ET on CBS): Fresno State @ Boise State
Boise State RB Jay Ajayi isn't talked about nationally but, his results (like Boise State's field) are loud.
Fresno State isn't the same team as they were last season. Davante Adams and Derek Carr aren't walking onto that blue field. Jay Ajayi and QB Grant Hedrick ARE walking onto that blue field, however, and will likely tear apart the Bulldogs' average defense.

My Pick: Boise State 56-34

Other games (involving ranked teams) taking place on Saturday
12:00 PM ET: (ABC) Iowa State @ TCU
3:30 PM ET: (FOX Sports 1) Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma
7:45 PM ET: (ESPN) Kansas State @ Baylor

Best of luck to your team or teams of interest and enjoy conference championship weekend!

2 comments:

  1. I'll buy almost all of what you're selling with the exception of your Heisman call. I've heard some say Cooper is neck and neck with the Duck and the Cheesehead lad. I'm not so sure but only because he's a catcher and not a thrower or runner and those are the only two positions that (almost) ever qualify as a 'best player'.

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    1. He'll certainly be in the room when the trophy is presented.

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