Saturday, April 18, 2015

The 2015 NBA Playoffs: Round 1

Remember when Mark Jackson and Mike Brown coached the Warriors and Cavaliers? It seems like so long ago and yet, we are only one year removed from those both being the case. Alas, here we are in the year 2015 and the two favorites to win the championship are the now Steve Kerr-coached Golden State Warriors and the now David Blatt-coached Cleveland Cavaliers. That might seem ridiculous but, considering the weakness of Cleveland's conference and the fact that Kerr helped Golden State to a franchise-best 67-15 record, first year coaches seem stronger than ever. Maybe next year we shouldn't take for granted how quickly the NBA's teams can turn around with one or two simple transactions.

USA TODAY
It will be much harder for Tyreke Evans to approach triple-doubles against Golden State.

#1 Golden State Warriors v. #8 New Orleans Pelicans
I'm not sure anybody has Anthony "The Brow" Davis getting swept in the first round because he is one of the freakiest freak specimens to ever play basketball and is coming off an all-time great regular season. Also, Omer Asik is pretty comparable to Andrew Bogut defensively from a skill standpoint and Tyreke Evans has become an afterthought even though he consistently got close to triple-doubles once Davis got injured and even continued after Davis returned. Can Tyreke continue his hot streak? Can the Pelicans ride their adrenaline after beating the Spurs on the final night of the season to clinch a playoff spot? YES. This series is going to be surprisingly close the way last year's 1-8 match-up in the West was super close (Spurs beat Mavs in 7).

Key Match-up To Watch: The Unibrow vs. Andrew Bogut & David Lee.

All eyes are on Anthony Davis every time he steps foot on a basketball court and even though Stephen Curry is one of the three best shooters in NBA history, Davis will command more attention from the opposing defense.

My Pick: Warriors in 7.

Scott Halleran/Getty Images North America
Chandler Parsons gets to play against the team he played for in his first three NBA seasons
#2 Houston Rockets v. #7 Dallas Mavericks
It's Playoff Rondo time! and if you cannot sense the sarcasm in that sentence, you need to watch more Mavericks games with Rajon Rondo on the court. Houston is not as deep in talent as they were even a month ago as Point Guard Pat Beverley and Power Forward Donatas Motiejunas are both going to miss the entirety of the postseason due to injuries. Dallas has a nice starting five and a barren bench so this is a fairly even match-up.

Key Match-up To Watch: Dwight Howard vs. Tyson Chandler.

Dwight has not had a good test yet from an opposing Center after returning from injury. Tyson Chandler is still a stalwart defensive player and will make Howard's life a living hell this series.

My Pick: Rockets in 6.

(Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times)
Tony Parker parts his way through the Clipper Sea. 
#3 Los Angeles Clippers v. #6 San Antonio Spurs
The Clippers landed into the same seeding they had last year but, this time they are underdogs. I suppose facing the defending champs that were the #2 team headed into the final game of the season would make LA underdogs in this one but, it still looks strange on paper. Get ready for a wild series that will hopefully end with one team blowing apart their entire nucleus (Duncan, Manu retirements? Blake, DeAndre and/or CP3 on the way out?).

Key Match-up To Watch: Ultra-physical DeAndre Jordan vs. Brilliant silent assassin Tim Duncan.

Father Time is currently sporting a 1 trillion and one win-loss record with the one loss going to Duncan as he is still playing at an All-NBA level in his late thirties. How often will Gregg Popovich go to Hack-a-DeAndre strategy? Probably quite often as most games will be very close in the series. There is not a more exciting Center to watch on defense than DeAndre Jordan and there is not a more-trusted big man in these playoffs than Duncan. I have no idea who will be stopping whom.

My Pick: At the start of the year, I picked the Clippers to win the Finals but, plenty has changed and I am now taking the Spurs in 6.

Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports 
Former Trailblazer Zach Randolph will face former teammate LaMarcus Aldridge in the paint.
#4 Portland Trailblazers v. #5 Memphis Grizzlies
Both 4 v. 5 match-ups are pretty unpredictable as they should always be. There's not a seriously uneven match-up anywhere on the floor except for the good Robin Lopez versus elite Marc Gasol Center match-up. Memphis finished with the better win-loss record and Portland received the fourth seed thanks to a terrible rule where winning their division locked them into a top-four seeding. The most interesting person on the court will ultimately be Jeff Green (Memphis's Small Forward) and his here-one-day, gone-the-next offense. Green's consistency will decide this series.

Key Match-up To Watch: Damian Lillard vs. Mike Conley Jr.

Lillard has no defensive ability whatsoever and can really be spotty on offense. He could go 1/17 shooting and it wouldn't shock me, he could score 50 and it wouldn't surprise me. Conley is consistently good at everything and great at nothing. Conley is also coming off an injury that hampered his performance the last few weeks of the regular season. It will be very interesting to see these two battle and cross each other over.

My Pick: Grizzlies in 7.

Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Korver can work on his passing game in a series with very little competition.
 #1 Atlanta Hawks v. #8 Brooklyn Nets
It's a joke that the 7 & 8 seeds in the East are even in the playoffs. Brooklyn has some quality players but Atlanta has a great cohesive unit of a team. I hope every game besides one (the clincher) is aired on NBA TV so I can properly ignore it.

Key Match-up To Watch: Jeff Teague v. Deron Williams

But seriously, I can't give you many reasons to watch this series.

My Pick: Hawks pull out the brooms and sweep the Nets.

The Celtics sneaked their way into the playoffs thanks to surprises like Jae Crowder.
#2 Cleveland Cavaliers v. #7 Boston Celtics
It should be entertaining to watch Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love make their postseason debuts and it is also Brad Stevens' first attempt at a playoff mega-upset. It won't be that close of a series but, that doesn't mean it should be a complete snooze-fest.

Key Match-up To Watch: Avery Bradley vs. Kyrie Irving.

Kyrie is one of the league's best shooting Point Guards (though clearly not THE best) and he is one of the best ball-handlers as well. Avery Bradley is widely regarded as a major factor on defense and I would be surprised to see Irving breaking his ankles in this series.

My Pick: Cavaliers sweep the Celtics in 4.

Caylor Arnold - USA TODAY Sports
Derrick Rose being active creates a mismatch for the Bucks' otherwise thriving defense.
#3 Chicago Bulls v. #6 Milwaukee Bucks
The battle of the Wisconsin-Illinois border. The most important player in this series is Joakim Noah and do not underestimate his ability to take over without a dominant big anywhere to be found in Milwaukee. Derrick Rose still has not changed his giving-it-110% playing style and Jimmy Butler went from All-Star to most overrated player during the last couple of months. Pau Gasol should also have a field day as he has put up forty points in a meeting with Milwaukee earlier in the season. This will be the first playoff series for many Buck players like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Michael Carter-Williams and it will be a nice learning experience win or lose.

Key Match-up To Watch: Jason Kidd vs. Tom Thibodeau.

Both head coaches either have the perfect defensive schemes or they have the perfect defensive mindsets on staff. Kidd is going to do some weird stuff with his lineups, Giannis at Center? MCW as a Forward? Anything is possible for the team going against 4 current or former All-Stars.

My Pick: Bulls in 5.

(Dave Sandford/NBAE via Getty Images)
Jonas Valanciunas has to prove himself as a higher-tier Center this postseason.
#4 Toronto Raptors v. #5 Washington Wizards
In yet another unpredictable 4 vs. 5 series, Toronto started the year as an Eastern Conference favorite with a realistic shot at the title. That all went up in flames when Kyle Lowry started to get exhausted much easier and DeMar DeRozan stopped playing very good consistently. Washington was viewed in a similar light for much of the season until Head Coach Randy Wittman showed his true coaching colors and left the court early in a loss amid a second-half collapse that never ended.

Key Match-up To Watch: Kyle Lowry v. John Wall.

In a Point Guard-heavy league, Lowry and Wall are two of the more under-appreciated ones to command an offense. Wall is one of the fastest players in the NBA and Lowry will have a real challenge keeping up with the former Kentucky one-and-doner.

My Pick: Raptors in 6? Don't quite have a read on this one.

MY FINALS PICK AT THE MOMENT: Spurs over Cavs in 7.

This will obviously change every round unless my thoughts on the first round turn out to be true. I'm not betting against the Spurs because it would be just plain stupid to not pick them when they have proven me wrong so many times before.

I hope you enjoy the first round and all series' go to game sevens!

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