AL East
Toronto Blue Jays 89-73
Baltimore Orioles 86-76
Boston Red Sox 85-77
New York Yankees 79-83
Tampa Bay Rays 71-91
I feel weird going from placing Toronto in last during last year's prediction/preview piece to placing them in first this year. That said, the team has experienced some major turnover this off-season. Decent hitting Catcher Dioner Navarro is now the most valuable backup backstop in all of Major League Baseball with the acquisition of stellar defensive Catcher Russell Martin. Marcus Stroman may have been lost for the season but, thanks to Brett Cecil's closing ability, Aaron Sanchez is taking Stroman's place in the rotation and should fit right in. The biggest move of all was swapping perennial injury-risk 3B Brett Lawrie for Oakland's powerful All-Star 3B Josh Donaldson. Remember how bleak and uneventful Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion's careers were before coming to Toronto? Yeah, Donaldson is going to be HUGE this year. Baltimore has a weird obsession with starting Ubaldo Jimenez simply because they are paying him substantially more than Kevin Gausman and they will pay (in more ways than one) for that decision if they don't change their minds quickly. Boston has a fun and exciting, playoff-ready lineup with Mookie Betts starting in Center and Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez being signed during the Winter. The one thing keeping me from catapulting Boston to that next level is their shaky rotation (Clay Buchholz, Wade Miley, wildly overpaid Rick Porcello, Justin Masterson and Joe Kelly). There is no clear ace in that staff and while one might emerge, I find it a lot more likely that at least two will turn out to be disastrous. Plus, I really do not think they will trade for Cole Hamels at the Deadline. That can wait until the next off-season. The Yankees will get an early surge from A-Rod's return but he will taper off just like all the other 30-year old batters in their lineup (AKA: everyone not named Didi Gregorius). Tampa seems like they are a year away from something big. They have most of a pitching staff (Matt Moore is still recovering from Tommy John Surgery) and they are at least trying younger players in their lineup (Nick Franklin, Kevin Kiermaier, Steven Souza Jr.) but, as long as John Jaso is a key part of your offense, you should be a bad team. It's proven by science.
Fake Andy Todd Awards!!!
Division MVP: New Blue Jay Third Baseman Josh Donaldson
Division Rookie of the Year: Reliever-turned-Starter Aaron Sanchez, also of Toronto.
Division Cy Young Winner: I don't think Yankee Michael Pineda's 2014 was a fluke. In the worst pitching division by far, I'll take my chances with picking him.
The Sudden Collapse Award: Yankee Masahiro Tanaka will not live up to his pre-surgery performance and New York will regret rushing him back.
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| Josh Donaldson is my pick for the AL's MVP this year. |
AL Central
Cleveland Indians 92-70
Detroit Tigers 85-77
Kansas City Royals 82-80
Chicago White Sox 75-87
Minnesota Twins 72-90
Sports Illustrated picked the Cleveland Indians to win the World Series in their official preview of the 2015 MLB season. I, like many, scoffed at the idea that this team with no real playoff experience (outside of manager Terry Francona) could even make the ALCS. Shortly after, I looked at their roster and thought "Oh. This isn't a totally ridiculous assumption to make". Brandon Moss hit 30 homers in Oakland so he should easily challenge 35 in Cleveland. Corey Kluber is the defending AL Cy Young Award winner and Carlos Carrasco pitched like a Cy Young candidate in the second half of the 2014 season. T.J. House is a sleeper fantasy pick. Michael Brantley was an MVP candidate last season and Yan Gomes is the American League's best Catcher. What's not to like? Well, Michael Bourn (batted .257 in 2014) is batting lead-off but, that shouldn't hurt too much. Detroit is already regretting the Justin Verlander contract that should pretty much eliminate them from all future contention UNLESS, Yoenis Cespedes turns into the MVP candidate we've all been hearing about for the last three seasons. FDI (For Detroit's Information): Alfredo Simon and Shane Greene are not Doug Fister and Max Scherzer. Kansas City's World Series run last year was one of the flukier postseason runs in Major League history and the Royals are obvious regression candidates. The White Sox added another ace (Jeff Samardzija), bringing that total up to two for them (Chris Sale being the other). Don't sleep on Jose Quintana either! The White Sox offense is still a piece or two away from being playoff-ready. Meanwhile, across my border (Wisconsin is next to Minnesota for those of you readers that are geographically challenged), the Minnesota Twins are still just a one-pitcher franchise (Phil Hughes) with no clear star bats although, they do have intriguing youngsters in Kennys Vargas and Danny Santana. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano should tear the non-existent roof off of their stadium this September and with Alex Meyer, Jose Berrios and Kohl Stewart coming up through the Twins' system, Phil Hughes won't be lonely forever.
Fake Andy Todd Awards!!!
Division MVP: White Sox 1B Jose Abreu won't get the wins but, his stats will overshadow pretty much everyone else's in the Central.
Division Rookie of the Year: Micah Johnson could be a nice fantasy sleeper at second for Chicago but, Southpaw Carlos Rodon could be playing at an all-star level during the second half of the season.
Division Cy Young Winner: I'm surprising my 2014 self by saying that Corey Kluber winning the Cy Young for Cleveland last year was no fluke.
The Sudden Collapse Award: I've never trusted Royals Shortstop Alcides Escobar's batting eye but he already has over 700 hits in his career so he might be fine.
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| Carlos Carrasco pumps his fist in the air after finalizing a four-year contract extension with the AL Central winners. |
AL West
Seattle Mariners 101-61
Oakland Athletics 89-73
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 86-76
Houston Astros 81-81
Texas Rangers 65-97
Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, Hisashi Iwakuma, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager are already proven talents but, they have one World Series ring combined (Cano with the Yankees in '09). This year, the team channels that frustrating fact and comes out on top with the best record in all of baseball. They will get 101 wins thanks to the first full professional seasons from Starting Pitchers Taijuan Walker and James Paxton, the quality defense of Dustin Ackley and Austin Jackson and maybe, just mayyyyyybeeee, Mike Zunino can hit 25 homers and bat over .225 (I own him in my dynasty fantasy keeper league so, my fingers are crossed). Oakland made a whole lot of seemingly stupid moves this off-season but, as is the trend these last few years, they will find a way to stay relevant, good and in the Wildcard chase. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California of the United States of America of North America of Earth are still under the weight of the Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton contracts. They were unable to add to an average collection of Pitchers as a result. The team also lost Howie Kendrick in one of the more questionable off-season trades as well and will replace him with a platoon of Josh Rutledge (meh) and Johnny Giavotella (why now?). Houston is finally past their "Why is everyone mocking us!?" phase with George Springer in the majors and Shortstop Carols Correa only a few months away. The Astros' pitching staff has changed dramatically in terms of perception since the beginning of last season with the breakouts of Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh and the additions of Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek. Meanwhile, Mark Appel is climbing his way up through the minors as I type as well. The Astros are no laughing matter anymore, no matter how adorable Jose Altuve's height is. The Texas Rangers are looking like the 2007 Milwaukee Brewers (Yovani Gallardo & Prince Fielder reunited and it feels so... not that enthusiastic) minus Ryan Braun. That isn't good. I have an idea! Maybe they should pick up a second Pitcher at some point, they can't just blame their entire season on Yu Darvish's injury. They needed to be better prepared for the season and just plain weren't.
Fake Andy Todd Awards!!!
Division MVP: Kind of impossible to argue against three-time returning champ of this award, Mike Trout.
Division Rookie of the Year: The new Doug Fister! Oakland SP Kendall Graveman who does not have a great K-rate but will consistently force ground-balls.
Division Cy Young Winner: If I pick against Seattle's "King" Felix Hernandez, that would be a mighty bold prediction. Too bad I'm not.
The Sudden Collapse Award: There was a reason Angels SP Matt Shoemaker went undrafted and I think we are about to find out.
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| "King" Felix Hernandez will finally be on the kings of the division after a ten-year career-long playoff drought. |
NL East
Miami Marlins 96-66
Washington Nationals 92-70
New York Mets 85-77
Atlanta Braves 63-99
Philadelphia Phillies 61-101
Miami Outfielder Giancarlo Stanton is returning from a pitch that required him to get a bunch of stitches in his face and some say (mainly just me) that that will only add to the intimidation Pitchers feel when they have to face GianSCARlo: Desotroyer of baseballs this year. In my opinion, Miami has the best outfield in baseball (Honorable mention: Pittsburgh) with Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Stanton. Their infield is not too shabby either with the additions of Dee Gordon, Mike Morse and Martin Prado. Jose Fernandez is really the reason I am putting them ahead of the Nationals because, once he comes back, that team is in full playoff mode. The rest of the rotation is solid yet not deep enough to not collapse upon any injury. The Washington Nationals are pretty much locked into every baseball experts playoffs, rightfully so. The Mets have strong sleeper potential since they play in the same division as the Phillies and Braves and that alone is worth 20-25 wins. New York is one year away from seriously contending for the playoffs unless Matt Harvey really is Bizarro Clayton Kershaw. The Braves traded Jason Heyward, Craig Kimbrel, Evan Gattis and pretty much anyone not named Teheran, Freeman or Simmons. At least they got some prospects back and have a plan unlike the hopeless Philadelphia Phillies, who will trot out some names you would never have previously guessed to still be starting in 2015 like Grady Sizemore, Ryan Howard, Sean O'Sullivan, Aaron Harang and Chad Billingsley.
Fake Andy Todd Awards!!!
Division MVP: If Miami wins 96 games, it would be pretty hard not to give Giancarlo Stanton the divisional or even league MVP award presumably.
Division Rookie of the Year: Nationals Outfielder Michael Taylor will be playing a lot if injuries to Denard Span and Jayson Werth linger.
Division Cy Young Winner: Everyone loves picking Stephen Strasburg to win a Cy Young for Washington at some point. He's the third best Pitcher in the rotation (the deepest rotation for any team in years) and I'm giving this to his teammate, Jordan Zimmermann.
The Sudden Collapse Award: Mets Second Baseman Daniel Murphy. Another guy whose name I'm just sort of pulling out of the air. Plus, he seems genuinely unlikable but that has nothing to do with baseball (although, it could if he angers the wrong Pitcher).
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| The face of your 2015 Philadelphia Phillies. |
NL Central
Pittsburgh Pirates? 89-73
St. Louis Cardinals? 88-74
Chicago Cubs? 86-76
Cincinnati Reds 76-86
Milwaukee Brewers? 74-88
I put question marks next to four of the five teams because I have no idea what the hell is going to happen in this division other than I think that the Reds are one injury away from being bad. Also, one team will likely be surprisingly awful (Brewers?) and one surprisingly not-awful (Cubs?). The names are interchangeable but, everything I've said will definitely happen. I think the Pirates win because they have the highest floor and the Brewers finish in last because that team's pitching just isn't right. Will the Cubs really finish with 86 wins? doubtful but, I like many pieces they have and their probably one arm and one bat (that aren't already in the organization) away from being worth the hype. The Reds could get a bit of a bounce back from both Joey Votto and Jay Bruce but, what are the realistic chances that those two plus Devin Mesoraco and Johnny Cueto all stay healthy? slim. St. Louis picked up Jayson Heyward (zzzz) and Trevor Rosenthal has a full year of Closing experience (zzzzzz) behind himzzzzzzzzz..... Oh. I'm sorry, this is the most boring team in the league and I can't honestly find anything really positive to say about them or the state of things in the surrounding areas around St. Louis so, hopefully they don't win the division this year because zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
Fake Andy Todd Awards!!!
Division MVP: Pirates' Outfielder Andrew McCutchen SHOULD be the face of baseball right now.
Division Rookie of the Year: I'm going on record in saying that Jorge Soler of the Cubs Outfield will be better than OMG Kris Bryant!!!
Division Cy Young Winner: Originally, I wrote down Jon Lester but I'm backing away from that now and thinking Michael Wacha might become an All-Star.
The Sudden Collapse Award: Watch out for the decline of Cardinals Starter Adam Wainwright. The guy is approaching his mid-thirties and the strikeout totals were low in the second half of last season. Just something to keep an eye on.
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| Don't be shocked if McCutchen's strongest competition for NL MVP comes from teammate Starling Marte' |
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers 93-69
San Diego Padres 89-73
Colorado Rockies 75-87
San Francisco Giants 73-89
Arizona Diamondbacks 64-98
Didn't the Giants just win the World Series? They sure did. You know who else recently won a World Series? The 2013 Boston Red Sox. They certainly collapsed last year, why can't the Giants? The starting rotation is another year older and already dinged up (Peavy & Cain both rumored to be headed for the 15-day DL). Outfielder Hunter Pence will miss the first 4-6 weeks and Pablo Sandoval was replaced with a powerless Casey McGehee. Overall, the lineup is underwhelming and the only "stars" on this team are Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. San Diego, meanwhile, has become the most fascinating team in baseball with the additions of Craig Kimbrel, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Matt Kemp, James Shields and to a much less inspirational extent, Will Middlebrooks and Melvin Upton Jr. (formerly B.J. Upton). The rotation has four strong ace-like veterans in Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, James Shields and Ian Kennedy. The fifth spot in that rotation is filled by an injury-ridden formerly-good Brandon Morrow who might have something left in the tank but, really needs to prove himself quickly if he doesn't want to get moved when Josh Johnson returns from the Disabled List. The Dodgers are once again the clear favorites with the replacements for Matt Kemp and Dee Gordon being pretty equal value in Howie Kendrick and Joc Pederson. The Rockies have one of the three worst pitching staffs in the league again but, I expect some of their younger arms (Eddie Butler, Chad Bettis, Tyler Matzek) to at least make Rockie fans forget about their 2014 season. As always, IF Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki can stay healthy, this team will win at least 75 games. Arizona should have the worst pitching staff in baseball but, MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt will erase some deficits and prevent the D-Backs from losing into the triple digits.
Fake Andy Todd Awards!!!
Division MVP: Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw.
Division Rookie of the Year: Rockies Starting Pitcher Tyler Matzek.
Division Cy Young Winner: Clayton Kershaw
The Sudden Collapse Award: The Giants. If I have to go with one individual? Justin Morneau seems like a safe bet with the injury history and the potential past-his-prime-ness.
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| This is Tyler Matzek. He kind of reminds me of a young Mark Buehrle. |
PLAYOFFS?!
Tiebreaker Game
Orioles over Angels
Wildcard Games
Orioles over Athletics
Marlins over Padres
1st Rd.
Mariners over Orioles
Blue Jays over Indians
Marlins over Nationals
Dodgers over Pirates
2nd Rd.
Mariners over Blue Jays
Marlins over Dodgers
World Series
Marlins over Mariners in 7
That's one of the strangest playoff scenarios I could possibly imagine but, the last two years of postseason baseball have been really strange so just like Ellie Goulding and Kevin Garnett say "Anything Could Happen/Anything is Possible".
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| I'd imagine the celebration over the Marlins' third World Series win in less than 25 years of being a franchise would look something like this. |
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