One topic that's been analyzed to death despite coming earlier than last year is the NFL Draft and I could not be less excited to do a mock draft. I have tried ignoring football so hard that I had no idea what the draft boards looked like coming into this weekend and was stunned at how many potential 1st rounders I had no clue were valued so highly (looking at you, Arik Armstead).
Well... at least I tried. Here's Andy Todd's one and only 2015 NFL Mock Draft!
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - QB Jameis Winston (Florida State)
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| Hey Crabman! |
I have been quoted as saying I would not touch Jameis Winston in the first three rounds of the draft and I am sticking to my guns on that call. He might have a strong commitment to the game and love of the sport but, turnovers are a very real problem for Jameis Squints-a-ton (I'm so original and cold-hearted). Turnovers are not a problem that just goes away (ask Jay Cutler) and speaking of things that refuse to go away, Winston's alleged rape victim is still pursuing any type of way for Winston to get punished for what he is alleged to have done to her. Add all of that up plus the poor judgement shown in his yelling-obscenities-on-the-top-of-a-lunch-table-at-school incident and you have the closest thing to a locked-in draft bust that we might ever see. Tampa Bay is desperate at Quarterback but, it is kind of astonishing to think they might be THIS desperate.
2. Tennessee Titans - QB Marcus Mariota (Oregon)
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| (Ryan Kang/Emerald) Mariota will miss facing Pac-12 opponents but, could join Andrew Luck and Blake Bortles in the up-and-coming QB division that is the AFC South. |
Zach Mettenberger is not the answer to Tennessee's long-standing Quarterback woes. He threw eight touchdowns, seven interceptions and lost all six of his starts in 2014 and Tennessee needs someone better than Charlie Whitehurst (AKA: Clipboard Jesus) to compete for the starting job. Marcus Mariota has the highest ceiling of any Quarterback in the draft and the Titans would be wise to take him instead of agreeing to a wild 3-team trade that has been rumored for weeks involving them receiving Philip Rivers and Philly getting this pick. At the end of the day, I still think the Eagles find a way to get Marcus Mariota but, I'm not going to base my mock draft on anything other than the order that currently stands even though I'm sure plenty of trading will be done this Thursday.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Amari Cooper (Alabama)
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| Jacksonville is still one receiver away from understanding Blake Bortles' full potential |
Most mocks have Oakland taking Cooper with the next pick. I am not most mock drafters. Last year, nobody had any clue who Jacksonville was thinking of taking third overall and they ended up surprising a few people (myself included) when they selected Central Florida QB Blake Bortles over Johnny Manziel, Khalil Mack and a few other notable names. Bortles' rookie season was largely buried in turnovers and he never had a chance to showcase his potential with Robinson, Lee, Hurns, Blackmon and Cecil Shorts all out for separate amounts of time. One player who is clearly a top-five talent in the draft, has no character concerns (unlike Blackmon) and stayed fairly healthy in his time at Alabama is Amari Cooper. Incomplete puzzle? meet another piece that fits perfectly.
4. Oakland Raiders - DE Leonard Williams (USC)
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| Williams and Justin Tuck can bond over things like their crazy face-masks. |
Few players drafted will fit a team more perfectly on day one than Leonard Williams in Oakland. It might be wishful thinking for Jacksonville to pass up on the USC Defensive Lineman but, Oakland has a realistic chance at getting back-to-back defensive superstars after picking Linebacker Khalil Mack fifth last year. Oakland is still a few pieces away from competing (#1 Receiver, Quarterback, O-Line, Corner) but, they could be really good in four years.
5. Washington's NFL Team - OT Brandon Scherff (Iowa)
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| (Liz Martin/The Gazette-KCRG) If the NFL dream doesn't work out, Scherff could always be the bouncer that throws dudes through the bar window. |
Washington just picked up Robert Griffin III's fifth-year option and that means they plan on using the man at Quarterback for two more HEALTHY seasons. Granted, RG3 is usually his worst enemy tweaking leg injuries while scrambling but, Washington should try to help out a bit more with who's blocking for Griffin. Brandon Scherff is easily the best Offensive Lineman in this draft and could give Griffin more time to consider actually throwing the ball before taking his last forward step on an NFL field.
6. New York Jets - OLB Dante Fowler Jr. (Florida)
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| Look at this photo and try telling me you aren't convinced he's a top-ten draft pick. |
Gone are the days of Rex Ryan, John Idzik and empty Jet offenses. With that said, the new Jets regime will pull a trick out of the Rex Ryan book and grab the best available player, who just happens to be a defensive player. Outside of Kevin White, there aren't many picks that one could see the Jets making at #6 and their Outside Linebackers are either A) Past their prime or B) Never had a prime to pass. Coples is still a project that new Head Coach Todd Bowles should be able to get the best results out of but, Pace and Babin just don't really fit on this defense anymore.
7. Chicago Bears - DT Danny Shelton (Washington)
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| (Dean Rutz/The Seattle Times) Shelton is trying to become the first player to go from running a 5.6 40 time at the combine to having a successful NFL career. |
In one of my two "reachiest" reaches, I have Chicago filling a production-need rather than a positional need with Danny Shelton. Shelton is a run-stopper and Chicago was the worst run defense in the NFL last year. It does not get any more complicated than that except no NFL player has ever succeeded with a 5.6 40-yard dash coming into the league (I'm sure Vince Wilfork ran much slower in the past few years) and Danny Shelton's speed is a serious concern if he is not stuffing a Running Back at the line of scrimmage.
8. Atlanta Falcons - RB Todd Gurley (Georgia)
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| Dale Zanine - USA TODAY Sports Atlanta stuns the league and takes Gurley despite a not-yet fully healed ACL. |
Atlanta still has some holes on their Offensive Line, Defensive Line and at the Linebacker position but, no position is more devoid of talent than their Running Back slot after the departure of Steven Jackson. Devonta Freeman was a major disappointment last year (his rookie year) and only averaged 3.8 yards per carry while Antone Smith continued scoring fluky touchdowns in bunches until he suffered another injury and was on IR before he had a chance to prove he could carry the load out of the backfield. Antone Smith is going to be 30 in November and Freeman does not look like anything more than a backup. Atlanta probably won't be back in the playoffs as a result of this pick but, it can't hurt their chances to take a chance on a player with a ridiculously high ceiling like Todd Gurley.
9. Giants - S Landon Collins (Alabama)
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| Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images North America) Collins plays football like a crazy person, something the Giants are sorely missing on defense. |
The New York Giants Safety position has to have the weakest positional depth for any one team at any one position in the NFL. They signed former Colt Josh Gordy and are even trying to transition him from Cornerback to Safety just so they have any type of name value at the position. Landon Collins is a player that this team has not had since Jason Sehorn, a dedicated football player who comes through in the clutch.
10. St. Louis Rams - WR Kevin White (West Virginia)
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| Matt Freed/Post-Gazette The Rams don't have a Receiver that can make the grabs Kevin White can make. |
He's the perfect fit for a team with two other Wide Receivers from West Virginia already on their football team (Austin & Bailey) but, I could totally see Kevin White being selected before pick #10 and it would surprise no one. Saint Louis has gone with a Wide Receiver early in seemingly every post-Torry Holt draft and still have no answers that have been the glue of their offense. Kevin White is a glue-all-the-pieces-together type of talent and Nick Foles or some other Quarterback will have a very fun decade ahead of them, throwing the ball to him.
11. Minnesota Vikings - DE Shane Ray (Missouri)
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| (Photo by Ben Walton) Shane Ray continues the trend of DE's coming out of Missouri with two first names! |
I do not think Shane Ray has the intangibles of a good Defensive End, he's fairly average overall. He could easily fall out of the first round if teams are very concerned with the failed drug tests in college and/or his marijuana bust the week of the draft. Watching Missouri games in 2013, I was under the impression that Michael Sam was the much more pro-ready Defensive Lineman out of Missouri but, Shane Ray doesn't have the imaginary "off-field distractions" or well... at least, he didn't until this week. I'm not sure what to think about Shane Ray or Minnesota's pick and that makes them a perfect fit in my mind.
12. Cleveland Browns - OT T.J. Clemmings (Pittsburgh)
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| Justin K. Aller/Getty Images The Browns' have a history of making questionable decisions with two first-round picks. |
The Browns are not lacking on offensive line talent but, with Alex Mack in a contract year and Joe Thomas probably getting tired of losing constantly, some hole may open up in the near future. Clemmings was the anchor of Pitt's O-Line and would be a solid replacement for anyone switching positions at the line for Cleveland.
13. New Orleans Saints - OLB Vic Beasley (Clemson)
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| AP Vic Beasley could take command of a new Saints defense. |
The Saints are in a complete (minus Drew Brees) rebuilding phase and their defense still has some major holes to be filled. Junior Galette is one of the last players New Orleans has left on their trading block and they've made that public knowledge. Vic Beasley would be an excellent replacement for any of the starting Linebacker positions on Rob Ryan's defense as his play is reminiscent of Terrell Suggs. They have five picks in the top 80 picks and I would be surprised if New Orleans doesn't walk away for a whole new look on defense.
14. Miami Dolphins - CB Trae Waynes (Michigan State)
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| It is not very hard to intercept Tommy Armstrong Jr. (Nebraska) and Trae Waynes benefited in this picture. |
Kenosha Bradford's own Trae Waynes is the highest valued Cornerback in the 2015 draft and with questions surrounding players like Clemmings and Ray, Waynes could easily catapult into the top ten. Miami just lost former #3 overall pick Dion Jordan for the season and the team could really use help on that end with a defensive back or two to help fans forget the Cortland Finnegan-era. Waynes would be the second Corner out of Michigan State to be drafted in the first round in two consecutive drafts (Darqueze Dennard to Cincy last season).
15. San Francisco 49ers - OT Andrus Peat (Stanford)
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| Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports "Ugh, the Niners?! I think I'll just retire instead." |
San Francisco would be pretty wise to draft some form of defense with the 15th pick but, when's the last time their front office made a good decision? It certainly wasn't during this off-season when they fired Jim Harbaugh. Excuse my bitterness but, I really bought into this team during the Harbaugh era and they threw it all away after three NFC Championship games and one 8-8 season so, management deserves whatever disaster is headed their way this season. Andrus Peat? Oh yeah, I really think he's a nice compliment to an established offensive line and a position change might be in order if they do go through with this draft pick.
PS: I don't hate any teams or players, I dislike poor decisions and blatant stupidity.
16. Houston Texans - CB Jalen Collins (LSU)
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| Brett Duke, NOLA.com | Times-Picayune Collins only started ten games in college but, boosted his stock into the late-first to early-second round range. |
Houston's Cornerbacks were the one thing holding back their defense from greatness last season and with fellow defensive back D.J. Swearinger supposedly on the trading block, it's clear that this is a position Bill O'Brien would like to see changed up a tad on his team. There is not a Quarterback worth taking in the first round after Winston or Mariota and I'm sure Houston would consider Brett Hundley in the second round but, they would be crazy to make that reach this soon in the draft. Collins has some experience but, may need time to fully adjust to the NFL which is why the team still has Joseph and Jackson to man down the position temporarily.
17. San Diego Chargers - OLB Randy Gregory (Nebraska)
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| Randy Gregory is a perfect fit for any scheme as he is the most versatile defensive player available this year. |
San Diego's linebacking depth is some of the worst in the NFL and if Randy Gregory is available, he's a lock to get taken by the Chargers here. Gregory is a pass-rusher (something the Chargers need), a Linebacker (something the Chargers need) and possibly also a good Defensive End (something the Chargers sort of need). Randy Gregory could fit on any team he gets picked and he just happens to be a mammoth of a talent with his only red flag being a failed drug test sometime during the pre-draft process. It's sort of concerning to see so many players failing drug tests recently (Dion Jordan, Shane Ray, Jalen Collins) but, this has happened to players and never been a problem again in some cases (okay, I can't think of any)
18. Kansas City Chiefs - CB Kevin Johnson (Wake Forest)
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| ELI LUCERO/THE ASSOCIATED PRESS AFTER THREE YEARS OF REMAINING FAIRLY ANONYMOUS, jOHNSON WILL MAKE A NAME FOR HIMSELF AS A FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK. |
Current Depth: (CB) Sean Smith, Marcus Cooper, Phillip Gaines, Jamell Fleming, Aaron Hester, Shaquille Richardson, Deji Olatoye
Kansas City is still looking to replace 2014-exit Brandon Flowers and is probably one defensive back away from making it back into the postseason. Kevin Johnson is a player that I admittedly know very little about (who watches Wake Forest football games religiously?) but, I love what I've seen in clips and the competitiveness he exhibits constantly. Johnson will be an improvement over any Corner not named Sean Smith that Kansas City presently rosters and he shall create turnovers very early on.
19. Cleveland Browns - DT Arik Armstead (Oregon)
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| Jeff Gross/Getty Images North America Armstead was the quiet leader of last season's runner-up Oregon Ducks' defense. |
Current Depth: (DT) Phil Taylor, John Hughes
Cleveland has not had luck drafting offensive players since their football team returned in 1998 and they will try to avoid drafting another Manziel-Weeden-Trent Richardson-Braylon Edwards. The best way to avoid a disaster pick is by trading out of the 12th and 19th spots (something they will likely do) or by going with quieter less-discussed positions in the trenches like on the O-line (T.J. Clemmings going 12th) and the D-line (Armstead). Arik Armstead never struck me as a dominant player but, he also never made any glaring errors along with his zero highlights (minus the one shown in the picture above where Jameis Winston ran backwards about 30 yards).
20. Philadelphia Eagles - WR Dorial Green-Beckham (Missouri)
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| AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki Even Dorial is confused about what I'm doing here. |
Current Depth: (WR) Jordan Matthews, Riley Cooper, Miles Austin, Josh Huff, Seyi Ajirotutu, Will Murphy, Quron Pratt
There's pretty much a 0% chance Chip Kelly stays with this pick and I'm just putting Dorial Green-Beckham here because he is a great talent with off-field questions and some team will be crazy enough to take a chance on Green-Beckham that has a decent chance of working out. I just don't see it being Philadelphia that takes the chance.
Wait, why did I pick him here? Maybe he'll go twentieth, I don't know.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - WR Devante Parker (Louisville)
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| Devante Parker could fill the hole opposite of A.J. Green on the field. |
Current Depth: (WR) A.J. Green, Mohamed Sanu, Marvin Jones, Denarius Moore, James Wright, Brandon Tate, Cobi Hamilton
The Bengals probably aren't looking at their draft board and saying "our most pressing need is at wide receiver". However, if Devante Parker falls outside of the top 20, Cincy is a guarantee to take this explosive ex-target of Teddy Bridgewater. One concern with Parker might be health as he missed half of his 2014 season and still managed to put up some crazy impressive numbers for the few games he did play.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers - DT Malcom Brown (Texas)
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| (Photo: espn.go.com) Not to be confused with Texas Running Back Malcolm Brown, another 2015 draft prospect. |
Current Depth: (DT) Steve McClendon, Daniel McCullers
Dick LeBeau is no longer the defensive coordinator for the Steelers and the team also lost Brett Kiesel, Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor. 2015 will be a year of Pittsburgh building a new identity as a defense and as a football team. Don't be surprised if they trade down from this pick for more picks in order to create some depth on their roster. Defensive Tackle has quietly been a position of weakness for many years on Mike Tomlin's team and they need a guy that can stuff the Justin Forsetts and Jeremy Hills of the world at the line of scrimmage. Malcom Brown is the perfect Steeler.
23. Detroit Lions - DT Michael Bennett (Ohio State)
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| Marvin Fong, The Plain Dealer Bennett is the Defensive Tackle with the strongest ability to get to the Quarterback. |
Current Depth: (DT) Haloti Ngata, Tyrunn Walker, Caraun Reid, Xavier Proctor, Jermelle Cudjo, Kerry Hyder, Roy Philon
After a 4-game suspension served at the end of the 2014 season, Haloti Ngata really made it seem like he would consider retiring this off-season. Luckily for Detroit, they avoided a complete disaster by replacing Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley with Haloti Ngata. Now, they just need to find a second Defensive Tackle if they want to stick with their current scheme. Michael Bennett is very much a Nick Fairley-type in that his pass rushing skills are the strongest at his position in the draft. One big difference for Detroit, hopefully, is the work ethic executed day-to-day by Bennett where that's the one thing that sent Fairley out of Detroit to St. Louis this off-season.
24. Arizona Cardinals - DT Eddie Goldman (Florida State)
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| Eddie Goldman wore gold in college so, I suppose he'll have to change his name to Eddie Redman. He could also go with the awesome one name of "Reddieman". |
Current Depth: (DT) Alameda Ta'amu
Arizona finally put themselves out of the misery that was owning up to that lame high draft pick of Dan Williams this offseason and let him walk in free agency. Now, the Cardinals have the potential to make things right and draft a guy up the middle to fulfill there defense a whole. The team currently rosters just one unknown D-tackle with very little experience and Goldman would at least give them a name at the position as the run on Defensive Tackles continues.
25. Carolina Panthers - RB Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin)
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| Morry Gash/Associated Press Gordon led the nation with 2.587 rushing yards in 2014 |
Current Depth: (RB) Jonathan Stewart, Jordan Todman, Fozzy Whittaker, Darrin Reaves
Melvin Gordon probably won't fall all the way to the 25th pick but, if he does, Carolina should not even question the choice and consider themselves fortunate enough to select him. There's going to be a dramatic change for Gordon between going from rushing behind Wisconsin's offensive line to rushing behind failed starters like Michael Oher and Jonathan Martin. No matter what, Gordon is clearly the most explosive Running Back on Carolina's roster if they do indeed draft him. An explosive back was the one thing keeping Carolina from being a .500 team last year.
26. Baltimore Ravens - CB Marcus Peters (Washington)
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| For the second time in four years, the Ravens are still looking for that next great Cornerback prospect. |
Current Depth: (CB) Lardarius Webb, Jimmy Smith, Asa Jackson, Anthony Levine, Rashaan Melvin, Tramain Jacobs, Quinton Pointer, Chris Greenwood
Baltimore did not waste any time replacing Ray Lewis with C.J. Mosley last year. At Cornerback, they are still trying to find the next Chris McAllister seven years after they let him go. With the mass of injuries being as large as it was in the Ravens' defensive backfield last season, they discovered that they had no real depth past their starting lineup. Marcus Peters is a coverage corner who will force his way into a starting lineup early and could be another Lardarius Webb at least.
27. Dallas Cowboys - RB Tevin Coleman (Indiana)
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| Rich Janzaruk II Dallas is the team most in desperate need of a Running Back. |
Current Depth: (RB) Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden, Lance Dunbar, Ryan Williams
Losing DeMarco Murray leaves some irreparable damage to Jerry Jones's offense. The team is now stuck with the overvalued walking corpse of Darren McFadden, and the untrustworthy cologne/underwear thief Joseph Randle. The Cowboys are a bizarre roster right now and Tevin Coleman would be a bit of a reach but, a safe pick for their needs.
28. Denver Broncos - OT Ereck Flowers (Miami [FL])
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| Not to be confused with former Buffalo Bill draft bust DE Eric Flowers, THIS is Ereck Flowers. |
Current Depth: (OT) Ryan Clady, Chris Clark, Michael Schofield
Hmm... a 39-year old Quarterback without a full offensive line? Let's ask Brett Favre how that works out. If the Broncos want any shot at winning the Super Bowl, they'll take one of the available Offensive Lineman here (Cameron Erving, D.J. Humphries, La'El Collins, Flowers). I have them taking Flowers pretty much on a coin-flip versus Humphries from Florida. Flowers' stock is supposedly rising and he seems to be the most dedicated to succeed among the Offensive Tackles available.
29. Indianapolis Colts - OT La'el Collins (LSU)
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| Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports Collins was an absolute stud in the SEC, blocking for many future NFL players. |
Current Depth: (OT) Anthony Castonzo, Gosder Cherilus, Ulrick John, Tyler Hoover, Matt Hall
There are no first-round caliber Defensive Tackles left on the board and the Colts sorely need some run blocking so, as long as La'el Collins is only being questioned about a murder and is not in any way suspected to have been the cause, he could become the steal of the first round for Indianapolis and what gets them to their first Andrew Luck-era Super Bowl. Collins was part of an LSU Tiger offense stacked with future NFL talents including Jeremy Hill, Alfred Blue, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and Zach Mettenberger. Now, we'll get to see if the talent was more with those around him or if he was the main reason for some of their successes.
30. Green Bay Packers - MLB Benardrick McKinney (Mississippi State)
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| AP McKinney is seen here tackling a teammate of the previous pick, La'el Collins. |
Current Depth: (MLB) Sam Barrington, Carl Bradford, Josh Francis, Joe Thomas
That is LITERALLY Green Bay's Middle Linebacker corps right now. That is right up there with Giants' safeties in terms of positional weakness. Barrington is a work-in-progress and definitely should not be starting this season. I suppose it wouldn't be astonishing to see the Packers take a corner here after losing Tramon Williams (Browns) and Davon House (Jaguars) in free agency but, Linebacker is such a blatantly obvious need that they may need to trade up just to avoid not getting one of Bernadrick McKinney/Eric Kendricks. McKinney was an outstanding run-stopper for the Bulldogs of Mississippi State and was a huge reason Dak Prescott got the amount of love he did last season when the team went on their hot streak.
31. New Orleans Saints - CB Ronald Darby (Florida State)
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| David J. Phillip/Associated Press Look out, he's running right out of the computer towards you! |
Current Depth: (CB) Keenan Lewis, Brandon Browner, Kyle Wilson, Stanley Jean-Baptiste, Brian Dixon, Terrence Frederick, Delvin Breaux
Corner might not be the biggest position of need on New Orleans' defense but, it's certainly one of the needs. Darby is an undersized corner who never really faced any major challenges of NFL proportions in college. Ronald Darby was still a standout Cornerback who Quarterbacks avoided, especially during Florida State's Championship run of 2013-14. He would be learning behind two of the more underrated at his position in the league in Keenan Lewis and Brandon Browner and this is the perfect team for him without a ton of responsibility his rookie season.
32. New England Patriots - MLB Paul Dawson (TCU)
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| Jason Getz - USA TODAY Sports I just had to remind Bo Wallace of how terrible this game was for Ole Miss. |
Current Depth: (MLB) Jerod Mayo, Chris White, James Morris, Deontae Skinner
After tearing a pectoral muscle and a patellar tendon in back-to-back seasons, New England will obviously be on the lookout for another big man to plug in next to or behind Jerod Mayo. Bill Belichick once coached a defense with Mike Vrabel, Ted Johnson and Roman Phifer at Middle Linebacker, he'll certainly be able to handle a Mayo/Dawson combination. Why not Eric Kendricks? I watched an unusual amount of TCU football games last year and Paul Dawson was above average at covering receivers and would bring athleticism in that aspect that Jerod Mayo is no longer able to. Kendricks is terrific and will be a huge steal early in the second, don't get me wrong.
Good luck to your team and may you all enjoy the draft while booing Roger Goodell in Chicago, at home, at the bar, or into your car radio! just make sure to not throw any full cans of anything at your television screen!
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