Considering I've been steamrolling out prediction pieces lately (MLB, NBA Playoffs round-by-round), I might as well cover all of the sports and give you the one and only, Andy Todd NFL Mock Draft 1.0!
1.) Houston Texans - DE Jadeveon Clowney (South Carolina)
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| Streeter Lecka / Getty Images North America "I'm about to make a lot more money than you" |
The Texans need three things: A Quarterback, an Offensive Tackle, and a Defensive End. If they were to trade down here (PS: I don't predict draft-day trades, that's madness), they could possibly get two picks from a team like Cleveland and cover two of those needs but, there's no chance that they would get Clowney no matter where they trade down to. They don't need a Defensive End anywhere near as much as they need a QB or OT but there's only one Jadeveon Clowney. The whispers lately say that Johnny Manziel is a possibility at #1 but here's the Texans history on drafting first overall:
2002. 1(1) - QB David Carr
2006. 1(1) - DE Mario Williams
One of those worked out really well and one of those worked out really poorly. Houston doesn't want history to repeat itself, they're taking Clowney.
2. St. Louis Rams - OLB Khalil Mack (Buffalo)
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| "One benefit about not going first: At least I'm not going to the place that boos their own players for getting injured" |
Khalil Mack is going to have the best career of any player drafted in this year's draft. Especially, if he ends up on the same defense as Chris Long, Robert Quinn, James Laurinaitis, and last year's first rounder, Alec Ogletree. Get ready, teams that have the NFC West on your schedule, to get annihilated.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Johnny Manziel (Texas A&M)
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| Photo Via: TheWhistle.com "How could I have let this happen?" |
That caption is very much sarcastic as I believe the Jaguars have seriously improved themselves this off-season. It will be hard to pass on Sammy Watkins with Justin Blackmon potentially suspended for the entire season but, Chad Henne has done a mediocre job as a starting Quarterback and the Jaguars will be much better off if Manziel is starting week 1 next season. Everybody seems convinced that Cleveland will take Manziel but, I don't think they'll even get the chance.
4. Cleveland Browns - QB Blake Bortles (Central Florida)
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| Do you think this man cares that I have him going to the franchise with the worst luck historically? Probably not. |
The Browns have done the best job at setting up a huge smoke-screen for covering up who they're drafting this week. This team actually made people believe that they're sticking with "Trick shot" Tanney and recent free-agent pick-ups Tyler Thigpen, and Vince Young! Very clever, Cleveland. But I know what you want at your games...
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| Twitter Ok, but she probably won't be dressed like this Mid-December in Cleveland. |
I'm sure Blake Bortles is a solid quarterback as well. (I wasn't too convinced from the little bit I saw of him but, I'm not an NFL Scout). The Browns come up again, late in the first round and have plenty of opportunities to take a receiver later on. Sammy Watkins begins to become the main topic of ESPN discussion overkill after this pick and Mel Kiper gets unreasonably angry.
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| Who was I talking about again? |
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| Watkins was maybe the biggest benefit from his combine appearance. |
Calm down, Mel. There are a lot of picks in this draft particularly, where the teams simply will not be able to pass up on the talent and potential of a player. This is one of those picks. The Raiders could go QB since Schaub and McGloin aren't winning any Super Bowls any time soon. The Raiders could also go with an Offensive Tackle since that's a big need for them after losing Jared Veldheer in free agency. At the end of the day, receiving corps can always use an extra guy and Oakland doesn't have a whole lot going for them after #3 on the depth chart. I'd rather have Sammy Watkins line up as my #2 and forget about Rod Streater over time than keep the depth chart the way Oakland has it now. Also, look out for Denarius Moore trade rumors. He's not really a #1 receiver and was forced into becoming one over the past two seasons. I don't think he'd be too happy about falling to #3 on the depth chart.
6. Atlanta Falcons - OT Greg Robinson (Auburn)
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| "Ohh, Atlanta? Sounds promising" |
Atlanta seems confident in replacing Tony Gonzalez with Levine Toilolo at Tight End so, Eric Ebron will have to wait for now. Matt Ryan wasn't just missing both of his top two receivers last season, he also was without a single good Offensive Tackle. 2008 first-rounder Sam Baker has only achieved average status and has had a disappointing up-and-down career up to this point so while he'll still be starting and a potential weakness, Robinson could man the other side to give Ryan at least a few extra seconds of breathing room.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR Mike Evans (Texas A&M)
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| "Welcome to Florida, buddy. Long time, no see" |
Tampa Bay's Quarterback situation is a disaster-in-waiting. Mike Glennon is on the trading block and 34-year old journeyman Josh McCown is being handed a starting job he hasn't earned. Yet, Lovie Smith seems set on keeping things this way. His second coaching stint might be a short one if this is true. With all that in mind, the other glaring need for Tampa is at Wide Receiver where they could try to re-enact the success McCown had with Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall last year in Chicago, by drafting Texas A&M's Mike Evans. I don't have any clue who the #2 receiver is among this roster and that should never be a problem for an NFL team come week 1.
8. Minnesota Vikings - ILB C.J. Mosley (Alabama)
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| The MetroDome wasn't de-constructed, C.J. Mosley just tackled it. |
WHO ARE YOU PEOPLE? None of the QB's outside of Manziel and Bortles are good enough to be top 10 picks and although this team did try taking Christian Ponder a full round too early, there's no reason for them to try that again. C.J. Mosley is ready to contribute to a bad defense.
9. Buffalo Bills - DT Aaron Donald (Pittsburgh)
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| (Getty Images) Aaron Donald has 2 first names and needs a nickname. I suggest "Wild Wings". Get it? Buffalo? |
Marcell Dareus is coming up on the final year of his rookie contract and while there have not been any signs pointing toward free agency for Dareus, it's still something that Buffalo should consider. Both Dareus and Kyle Williams were pro bowlers last season, which makes this prediction my least likely to become true. The way I see it, Buffalo loves D-Lineman more than Chris Berman loves the phrase "Circle the wagon!". Aaron Donald has to go somewhere, why not the place where he can sit a year behind expiring Marcell Dareus and 30-year old Kyle Williams and learn? (BREAKING: Marcell Dareus arrested on drug charges.)
10. Detroit Lions - OT Taylor Lewan (Michigan)
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| collegefootball.ap.org "Derp. I'm not Jake Matthews." |
Riley Reiff has backed up his status as a first-round draft pick about as well as Bryan Bulaga. There's still time for Reiff to turn into a nice offensive lineman but, what about the other two Tackles? Hilliard is a mediocre starter at best and Waddle is only notable for his cool first name. I'm not a big believer in teams drafting guys due to their ties to nearby colleges but, I think that the Lions will pull the rare "homegrown talent" pick here by selecting a perfect fit in Zach Lewan over the third Texas A&M alum.
11. Tennessee Titans - CB Darqueze Dennard (Michigan State)
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| (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall) Darqueze Dennard says goodbye to Michigan State fans. |
Replacing new Buccaneer Alterraun Verner is the only thing that makes sense for Tennessee to accomplish with the eleventh pick. This pick is a toss-up between Dennard and Oklahoma State's Justin Gilbert. From the games that I watched, Dennard seemed like a better pro prospect as he was all over the field and an unstoppable force in comparison to Gilbert. Gilbert will be great for turnovers, Dennard for everything else.
12. New York Giants - TE Eric Ebron (North Carolina)
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| Can Eric Ebron bring a third random Super Bowl to New York? "I don't know!" he answered. |
Prepare yourself, the boos will be aplenty when a New York-based team decides to select a Tight End at the draft (held in New York City), after the worst season for the Giants since 2004. Hopefully, Giants fans are smart enough to realize that Kellen Davis would hands-down be the worst starting Tight End in the NFL this year. If my prediction of Jake Matthews falling comes true, the Giants might just have to pick him. The issue is that they have a capable offensive line, which they can rely on to at least get the job done, something that they are incapable of stating about their Tight End situation.
13. St. Louis Rams - S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (Alabama)
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| (Mark Almond) Any team would love to see this multiple times per game. |
The Rams are set on starting Trumaine Johnson and Janoris Jenkins at Cornerback so, Justin Gilbert continues his fall as the Rams take a much-needed Safety in THE Ha Ha Clinton Dix (Read that in the way players say THE Ohio State University or THE U). Many mock drafts see this selection as a possibility and I agree with those guesses as I think Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is a rare talent from Alabama as he was crazy dominant in Alabama. Clinton-Dix's teammate Dee Milliner, however, was selected ninth overall by the Jets last season and his crazy talent did not translate into the NFL his rookie season. Maybe it's the coaching, maybe it's Maybelline. Either way I'm slightly hesitant to trust Clinton-Dix on having a terrific rookie season.
14. Chicago Bears - S Calvin Pryor (Louisville)
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| Andy Lyons / Getty Images North America Wait a minute... This looks semi-familiar... |
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| Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images -Gasp- It's a sign! |
If Calvin Pryor resembles the player I compared him to in the above photo, Chicago will be very happy and very-much win the NFC North. Sadly, I don't see all of that getting accomplished in Pryor's rookie season, nor do I see him coming close to Sherman. Calvin Pryor should be a good NFL Safety and that's an improvement over the glorified Arena League defensive backs they had starting last season. The Bears made an effort this offseason, signing three Safeties (Mundy, McCray, Jennings) but, are any of those guys really going to make your defense a top 16 defense? Probably not. Pryor is the only pick that I have in my mock draft that I think would just be dumb to pass up on if you're Chicago.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Jake Matthews (Texas A&M)
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| Jake Matthews will be more than motivated by his slide down the first round. |
Replacing Emmanuel Sanders with Lance Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey might raise the Steelers' eyebrows enough to take a receiver here (Cooks? Lee? Beckham Jr.?) but the amount of injuries that Pittsburgh has suffered on their O-line has been traumatizing to the team's success since their last super bowl appearance. Starting Center Maurkice Pouncey is the only lineman who has played consistently well also, which is a problem that needs fixing. Jake Matthews is just the guy Pittsburgh would love to have fall to them, as they would then have the perfect blocker for Ben Roethlisberger's scrambling ways and someone to help Pittsburgh have their first 1,000 yard rusher since Rashard Mendenhall (2010).
16. Dallas Cowboys - OLB Anthony Barr (UCLA)
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| (Stephen Dunn/Getty Images North America) Anthony is "Barr" none, the biggest unknown (in terms of draft position) in this year's draft. |
I've seen mock drafts with Anthony Barr going in the top ten. I've seen mock drafts with Anthony Barr falling out of the first round. Anthony Barr's draft stock is as big of a mystery as Teddy Bridgewater's draft stock. The former Bruins' Linebacker could be seen as a huge need/steal for the eternally 8-8 Cowboys. I like what I saw from Barr in college and think he could be a solid (though not exact) replacement for DeMarcus Ware.
17. Baltimore Ravens - OT Zack Martin (Notre Dame)
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| Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images It was oddly difficult to find a high-quality picture of Zack Martin since Notre Dame played in so many rainy games last season. |
We're getting to that point in the draft where all of the Wide Receivers and Tackles start blending together and I probably have all of the positions right and players wrong. No NFL team can go into training camp with just three tackles on their roster. Plenty of "experts" see Baltimore leading the surge of selections at Wide Receiver but I think that's ridiculous considering, this team already has Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin plus, Rick Wagner? He's not replacing Michael Oher.
18. New York Jets - DT Ra'Shede Hageman (Minnesota)
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| Can't trust your defensive backs to defend the pass? Draft a Defensive Tackle who can do this. |
This would not be a need pick-up and more of a Rex-Ryan-loading-up-on-defensive-lineman pick. No doubt, the Jets should consider Justin Gilbert if he really does manage to fall to them but, I get a strange sensation that the Jets won't be able to stop foaming at the mouth if Hageman falls to them. It wouldn't make a ton of sense but, then again neither did Cornerback Kyle Wilson in 2010, when the team already had Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie.
19. Miami Dolphins - OT Morgan Moses (Virginia)
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| Stacy Revere/Getty Images That's a mighty strong beard you've got going for you there, Morgan. |
Morgan Moses is an Offensive Tackle, who I admittedly know very little about. Every expert seemingly has him going to the Dolphins and I agree that they'll definitely be thinking Offensive Line this draft. Nate Garner is more of a Guard than a Tackle and Miami DOES NOT want to force a guy to change positions when Garner isn't doing a terrible job at Guard, unlike most of his teammates last year. Ryan Tannehill needs to stop getting sacked and Lamar "Turquoise Justice" Miller could have had a respectable season last year if the offensive line weren't made of test dummies. Knowshon Moreno will probably need some help as well, to avoid turning into pre-2013 Knowshon Moreno. Morgan Moses blocked for Logan Thomas in college, and that... that doesn't tell me a lot. Best of luck to you, Morgan Moses!
20. Arizona Cardinals - DT Timmy Jernigan (Florida State)
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| (AP Photo/Phil Sears) Coming off of a BCS Championship, Timmy Jernigan could be a day one pick. |
Timmy Jernigan is the man that I have going in the first round who is most likely to slip through into day 2. Jernigan reportedly failed a drug test according to SI.com, and when you know you're about to be tested and still partake in an activity that would dilute your urine, you've shown a lack of maturity, responsibility, and, most of all, decision making. The Cardinals haven't been one to avoid character issues though (See: Tyrann Mathieu) so, Jernigan is a possibility considering their current crop of Defensive Tackles. Dan Williams was a major surprise first-round pick in 2010 and is still a surprise today, as he has yet to look like a late first-rounder. Carson Palmer isn't ready to be replaced and this team is set at Wide Receiver and Cornerback so, the big names continue their fall. Commence the NFL Network/ESPN green-room depression camera shots.
21. Green Bay Packers - DT Louis Nix III (Notre Dame)
| (Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports) I am not challenging this man on anything. Ever. He's a tank. |
That's it. The Packers, LITERALLY, have just one Defensive Tackle as of draft week. You know they're planning something. B.J. Raji re-signed to a one-year deal this off-season worth $4 million. I don't know anybody that thinks B.J. Raji should have a guaranteed contract past this season as he been on a downward spiral since Green Bay's Super Bowl run three years ago. Louis Nix III was an unstoppable beast of a football player in 2012 and was considered a definite top-3 pick. 2013 was less than stellar for Nix and he's now considered a late first-rounder or worse. It was noticeable on the field but, I think one excuse you could use in favor of Nix is that opposing Offensive Lineman no longer had to keep their eyes on Manti Te'O, thus letting them key in on Nix more than in previous seasons. He'll benefit from the Clay Matthews effect, if Matthews can stay healthy.
22. Philadelphia Eagles - WR Brandin Cooks (Oregon State)
| (USA Today Sports) Hopefully, Brandin Cooks is not in any gangs. |
DeSean Jackson is gone, being released into free agency, where he decided to sign with the division-rival Washington Redskins. Brandin Cooks is very fast and has very reliable hands. I'm calling it now, Brandin Cooks will have a better NFL career than DeSean Jackson. Riley Cooper is pretty good but not quite #1 material and Jeremy Maclin is recovering from a torn ACL. The Eagles need a safety-blanket in case one of their top two gets hurt and Brad Smith is not supposed to be a starting NFL Wide Receiver. Chip Kelly will opt to go with his former school's rival Wide Receiver out of Oregon State instead of Odell Beckham Jr..
23. Kansas City Chiefs - WR Odell Beckham Jr. (LSU)
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| Speaking of Odell Beckham Jr.... |
Kansas City could pass up on Beckham Jr. if they so desire. A.J. Jenkins was a first-round draft pick in 2012 after all, by the San Francisco 49ers. It's strange that nobody mentions that but, watching his career constantly drive at 5 MPH is pretty depressing for Chiefs fans and I'm sure they very much embrace selecting a Wide Receiver in the first round. Beckham Jr. was highly regarded up until the combine when scouts really took notes on guys like Brandin Cooks, Cody Latimer, Marqise Lee, and Jordan Matthews. The Chiefs might even end up getting a steal in the former LSU Tiger.
24. Cincinnati Bengals - OLB Ryan Shazier (Ohio State)
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| Marvin Fong, The Plain Dealer Alas, no more waiting for the former Buckeye. |
Cincinnati has a great team except for two areas: Quarterback (so many questions about Andy Dalton) and Outside Linebacker. Burfict is great and everybody knows that by now if they watched him last season. Michael Boley is a solid fill-in veteran for a year or two and Dontay Moch is not a starter. Shazier is much needed in Cincy and they have a chance at competing even without a consistent Quarterback if they draft Shazier. It would shock me to see them go anywhere else with pick #24.
25. San Diego Chargers - CB Justin Gilbert (Oklahoma State)
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| I'll never forget the Oklahoma State-TCU game from last season, both teams went through at least two quarterbacks due to some fantastic defense. |
The Chargers Cornerback collection is a large grouping of average or worse corners. This needs to change and San Diego's first instinct will be to go after a corner. With Justin Gilbert still on the board, this pick was easy for me to make (especially since there are no repercussions to my fake picks in this fake draft other than being mocked mercilessly for being wrong). The draft loses a potential day two story-line in "How far will Justin Gilbert fall?" but we'll all be able to still discuss Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, and Carlos Hyde come day two.
26. Cleveland Browns - WR Marqise Lee (USC)
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| (USATSI) "Cleveland!? Zoinks!" |
I'm not entirely convinced that all the media speculation on Cleveland wanting a receiver is real but, I'm willing to go with the flow and predict that the Browns would love to give Blake Bortles a fancy new toy in Marqise Lee to go along side the "best-thing-since-Lebron" Josh Gordon, and free-agent signees Hawkins & Burleson. Lee was going to be a top 20 pick before injuries took him out for most of the 2013 college football season. The fact that he's still considered a first-rounder after all those injuries tells you all you need to know about Marqise Lee. He's for real. Trent Richardson? Not so much. (Cleveland got this pick from Indianapolis for Trent Richardson)
27. New Orleans Saints - OT Cyrus Kouandjio (Alabama)
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| Eileen Blass-USA TODAY Sports Nick Saban doesn't smile at many of his players. Cyrus Kouandjio must be a special talent. |
The Saints are a widely successful team already so, the question for GM Mickey Loomis and company is "What can we add to win us a Super Bowl?". The answer to that question is a guy with championship experience already. Cyrus Kouandjio has been getting torn apart since giving a very disappointing showing at the combine but, he could still be picked in the first round based off of a strong resume blocking for the Crimson Tide. New Orleans needs someone on the other side of Zach Strief and Kouandjio seems like a perfect fit to New Orleans' O-Line puzzle.
28. Carolina Panthers - WR Kelvin Benjamin (Florida State)
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| (USATSI) What other photo did you think I would use? |
After a hellish off-season, Carolina's depleted receiving corps will add a great-hands guy in Kelvin Benjamin, who will then be thrown to the wolves as the Panthers' #1 receiver immediately. Marvin McNutt (AKA: McNuttatron) was a running joke this off-season as the Panthers' #1 option but, it's time to really help Cam Newton with an actual starting-caliber Wide Receiver.
29. New England Patriots - TE Jace Amaro (Texas Tech)
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| collegesportsblog.dallasnews.com Let's all hope Jace Amaro doesn't murder anybody. |
It's only been a year since Aaron Hernandez was cut by the Patriots due to his on-going murder trial, and the Patriots are already in need of a Tight End due to Rob Gronkowski's serious injury risks that have risen over the past two seasons. Tom Brady ran out of options to throw to last season in New England. All the injuries began piling up so bad, that the Patriots re-signed Austin Collie about 100 different times. It was a train-wreck of a receiving corps and yet, they still made it to the AFC Championship game. Jace Amaro could be the one piece that Bill Belichick needs for a 4th Super Bowl ring.
30. San Francisco 49ers - DE Kony Ealy (Missouri)
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| Tim Tai/SENIOR STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER "Excuse me while I take this." |
If you don't think that the 49ers are concerned about their pass-rush with all of the Aldon Smith off-the-field issues, you're wrong. If the 49ers can't get a receiver like Benjamin, Beckham, or Cooks, they'll be forced to consider taking a Defensive End late in the first. Kony Ealy may have benefited from playing on the opposite side of Michael Sam but, there was still enough proof in the tapes that could catapult Ealy into the first round.
31. Denver Broncos - CB Jason Verrett (TCU)
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STAR-TELEGRAM
Covering fellow first-rounder Odell Beckham Jr. this well will help assist your draft stock. |
What do you give a team that added seemingly everything in the off-season? Another Cornerback to help them defend new in-division rivals like James Jones, Sammy Watkins, and Odell Beckham Jr.. The Broncos will make a true power move in responding to those additions with one of their own, adding a replacement for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in Jason Verrett. He may not start right away but, should help shore up an average collection of defensive backs.
32. Seattle Seahawks - CB Bradley Roby (Ohio State)
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| BARBARA J. PERENIC | DISPATCH This appears to be a pick-six in the above photo. Seattle always welcomes more of these. |
I made my mock draft about two weeks ago, which was before the Seahawks decided to sign ex-Viking A.J. Jefferson at Cornerback. Now, I still believe corner is a possibility and ultimately, what they will pick but, with the signing of Jefferson, it seems a lot more likely Seattle targets a Tight End like Austin Sefarian-Jenkins. Bradley Roby was a great college Cornerback and I have a hard time believing he'll fall out of the first round so, Seattle snatches him up with the last pick in the first round after losing Walter Thurmond III in free agency.
Good luck to all of your teams and please, don't bet on these picks because I think they're going to happen. I am not an expert.
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