Thursday, April 10, 2014

My 2014 MLB Preview Division-by-Division

Quick Pre-Prediction Note: Everyone's picking the Dodgers to win the World Series. Yeah, because Mark McGwire and Don Mattingly need MORE world series victories.

AL East
Baltimore Orioles 93-69
Boston Red Sox 90-72
Tampa Bay Rays 83-79
New York Yankees 78-84
Toronto Blue Jays 75-87

This may be an optimistic projection for both Baltimore and Toronto but these Yankees are not the Yankees we know and somewhat tolerate from the George Steinbrenner era. This Yankee team has a line-up filled completely with 30+ year old starters and perennial injury risks like Carlos Beltran, Brett Gardner, and the soon-retiring Derek Jeter. The Sox are the defending champions but there's no reason that their roster last year should have ever won a championship outside of David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, and Koji Uehara's miracle season.

Fake Andy Todd Awards!!!
Division MVP: Orioles Outfielder Adam Jones
Division Rookie Of The Year: Either the obvious choice of Red Sox Shortstop Xander Bogaerts or Some Yankee who gets thrown into the dumpster fire that will be their line-up by August. (Yangervis Solarte? Who?)
Division Cy Young Winner: Red Sox' Jake Peavy 
The Sudden Collapse Award: Rays Starting Pitcher Matt Moore & Yankee Closer David Robertson

Hello, my name is Yangervis Solarte. You diss my Yankees. Prepare to die.
AL Central
Detroit Tigers 99-63
Cleveland Indians 86-76
Kansas City Royals 81-81
Chicago White Sox 69-93
Minnesota Twins 64-98

The worst division in baseball had some fluke seasons last year from the White Sox (who aren't that bad) and the Indians (who aren't that good). Ubaldo has left the building and Danny Salazar is the new breakthrough ace of the staff for Cleveland but might the pressure be too much for him? Kansas City is hoping that Mike Moustakas (MOOSE TACOS!) will carry over his superb Spring Training totals into the regular season (Yes, I realize we are a week into the season and the answer is; he won't but, it's possible his bat returns at any moment). Detroit dropped Prince Fielder and Jhonny Peralta, replacing them with Ian Kinsler and Nick Castellanos. These moves were fantastic as they were simply "rather be a year early than a year late" moves.

Fake Andy Todd Awards
Division MVP: Tigers First Baseman Miguel Cabrera (I mean, who else could I choose over him?)
Division ROTY: Indians Starting Pitcher Danny Salazar
Division Cy Young: Tigers' Max Scherzer
Sudden Collapse Award: Indians First Baseman Carlos Santana 

I fully support Max Scherzer's attempt at back-to-back Cy Young Awards, but I will not support this frightening life-sized bobblehead of him.
AL West
Oakland Athletics 94-68
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 85-77
Texas Rangers 84-78
Seattle Mariners 79-83
Houston Astros 66-96

Houston went 51-111 in 2013, becoming immortalized as one of the worst teams in baseball history. I see them improving as elite prospects like George Springer and Jonathan Singleton will make their debuts at some point this season (My prediction: June for Springer, September for Singleton). The Mariners added Robinson Cano, Corey Hart, Logan Morrison, and some young pitching which was nice but not division-altering. The Angels are hoping for comeback seasons from the now-injured Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols. All the Angels need is for one to stay healthy and bat .280 to become relevant again as long as they have Mike Trout in the outfield. Texas added Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo but has a messy pitching rotation and an injured batter in young Jurickson Profar. With all these teams being unpredictable, Oakland won the division last year and I don't see any big losses other than the injury to Starting Pitcher Jarrod Parker so expect the A's to run away with it.

Fake Andy Todd Awards
Division MVP: Angels Outfielder Mike Trout
Division ROTY: Mariners Starting Pitcher Taijuan Walker
Division Cy Young: Mariners' Felix Hernandez
Sudden Collapse Award: Angels Starting Pitcher Jered Weaver

How could I have forgotten to mention the loss for the Athletics of 40-year old ace Big Fat Bartolo Colon?
NL East
Washington Nationals 97-65
Atlanta Braves 90-72
Philadelphia Phillies 87-75
New York Mets 74-88
Miami Marlins 71-91

I've heard many bad things about the Phillies, some reasonable (Howard, Utley, Rollins trio are not what they used to be), some not quite as proven (Papelbon is terrible, Domonic Brown will crumble, Revere is too injury prone). Overall, I like Philly more than most with my 87-75 prediction. The Nationals majorly disappointed last season and we're all still waiting for Bryce Harper's MVP candidate season. This might not be the year that we see that side of Harper yet but as long as this team has Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, and Gio Gonzalez in the rotation, they're contenders. Atlanta has had five major league pitchers (in addition to the still-recovering Jonny Venters) have Tommy John Surgery and thus are out for the season. That's too many good arms going down for me to have complete confidence in choosing Atlanta to win the NL East. Meanwhile, the Mets and Marlins are interchangeable as long as Mets Pitcher Matt Harvey is out. 

 Fake Andy Todd Awards
Division MVP: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stephen Strasburg 
Division ROTY: Marlins Outfielder Christian Yelich
Division Cy Young: Nationals' Stephen Strasburg
Sudden Collapse Award: Braves Shortstop Andrelton Simmons

Just think of it as growing pains for Atlanta's young, defensive-minded Shortstop
NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers (You heard it here first) 93-69
Cincinnati Reds 92-70
Pittsburgh Pirates 88-74
St. Louis Cardinals 84-78
Chicago Cubs 62-100

My blodest call involves my home state's team winning their division. Homer pick? Never. I have no more emotions toward the Brewers than I do any other team, I just truly believe that they are a tough task to take down this season as long as Ryan Braun is done getting suspended. The Reds are consistent all around and I expect them to take one of the National League's wildcard spots. Pittsburgh has been through some tough times this year, watching the Steelers become mediocre and all, but they aren't done suffering just yet as the Pirates will be good enough to get their hopes up once again until the last week of the season, when they lose the second wildcard slot to the Atlanta Braves. Too many things went right for the Cardinals last season and while they'll still be relatively good, they won't be in the playoffs as I have them finishing fourth one season after making the World Series. The Cubs are the Cubs.

Fake Andy Todd Awards
Division MVP: Brewers Outfielder Ryan Braun
Division ROTY: Cubs Third Baseman Mike Olt
Division Cy Young: Reds' Homer Bailey
Sudden Collapse Award: Brewers Shortstop Jean Segura

Reds Outfielder Billy Hamilton will add tons of stolen bases but I don't imagine him batting higher than .230 and will not be an everyday lead-off hitter the way that Cincinnati is praying for.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers 97-65
Arizona Diamondbacks 87-75
San Francisco Giants 87-75
San Diego Padres 76-86
Colorado Rockies 68-94

There's no reason for the Dodgers to NOT win this division. Unless Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Ryan Vogelsong all have comeback years for the Giants, the Dodgers should run away with it. Arizona did some nice things this off-season by adding Starting Pitcher Bronson Arroyo, Closer Addison Reed, and extending the contract of First Baseman Paul Goldschmidt but does not "wow" me overall as a team. The Padres continue to look bad this year but their pitching acquisitions since the start of last season will help play a role in a slight revival that keeps them within grasp of a .500 win-loss record. The Rockies pitching is awful and their batters are only okay and that's never an ideal combination.

Fake Andy Todd Awards
Division MVP: Dodgers First Baseman Adrian Gonzalez
Division ROTY: Diamondbacks Shortstop Chris Owings
Division Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw Patrick Corbin Giants' Madison Bumgarner 
Sudden Collapse Award: Padres Outfielder Will Venable or Rockies Outfielder Michael Cuddyer if you like your players to have actually reached an all-star game before collapsing. 

NO CLAYTON! That's not going to help your back!
I might actually call back to these predictions at the end of the year. If I do, it will be embarrassing as my baseball predictions are usually my weakest of all the sports.

PLAYOFFS?!
Wildcard Games
Red Sox over Indians
Braves over Reds
1st Rd.
Tigers over Red Sox
Orioles over Athletics
Dodgers over Braves
Brewers over Nationals
2nd Rd.
Tigers over Orioles
Dodgers over Brewers
World Series
Tigers over Dodgers in 6.
First: A triple crown. Second: The MVP trophy. Next: World Series MVP for Miguel Cabrera.

Post-Preview Note: Don't fail me, Yasiel Puig! (I'm a disgruntled fantasy keeper league owner who took Puig first overall this March).

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