If there's one thing I'm consistent at on this blog, it's posting a prediction piece, failing to recognize the sport more than once or twice during the season and then a repeat of the same cycle. Oddly enough, I'm deciding to actually take a look back and see whether or not I was anywhere close because after a long look in a metaphorical mirror, I'm ready to admit my faults in predicting sports.
(Actual Results in Parenthesis)
AL East
Baltimore Orioles 93-69 (96-66)
Boston Red Sox 90-72 (71-91)
Tampa Bay Rays 83-79 (77-85)
New York Yankees 78-84 (84-78)
Toronto Blue Jays 75-87 (83-79)
Pay no attention to my prediction for the team that traded away Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Jake Peavy. I got Baltimore right and I'm the only one that I know of who did. That said, the entire Orioles organization was upside-down and backwards this year with Chris Davis batting below the Mendoza line, Matt Wieters and Manny Machado out for a majority of the season, and the weakest regular season pitching rotation to reach the postseason.
The Winners of the Fake Andy Todd Awards!!!
Division MVP: Orioles Outfielder Adam Jones. I said Jones in the preseason and after another all-star year in Center Field, Hallelujah! I was right. Nelson Cruz was a close runner-up but he didn't play defense and is not a baserunner. With a war of 4.9 and a twelve game lead over second in the division, the Orioles' are going to keep Jones around for many, many more years.
Division Rookie Of The Year: In the preseason, I was thinking about nothing but batters for this award (Xander Bogaerts specifically). Well, after a rollercoaster season for Bogaerts, it's clear that this award belongs to a pitcher. Which one? that's the hard part. Masahiro Tanaka was a Cy Young candidate until he got hurt mid-season. Marcus Stroman helped Toronto finish above .500 with a 3.65 ERA. Both Tanaka and Stroman were great candidates for small sequences of time, Baltimore Starting Pitcher Kevin Gausman is my AL East Rookie of the Year with 20 starts in 2014 and a green light to start in the postseason.
Division Cy Young Winner: David Price, John Lackey, Jon Lester, and my preseason pick, Jake Peavy were all dealt at the trade deadline and that left the AL East Cy Young candidates thin. The thinnest of all the divisional Cy Young races. I'm going to go outside the box and give this award to Baltimore's Closer (who came out of nowhere), Zach Britton. After taking the 9th inning role from Tommy Hunter, Britton went on to save 37 games and keep one of the lowest ERAs (1.65) among AL Closers.
The Sudden Collapse Award: In retrospect, this is an incredibly easy choice. Chris Davis went from MVP candidate with 40+ homers to Mark Reynolds Jr. with a .196 batting average. Once again, shoutout to myself! for picking Matt Moore who made two starts before undergoing Tommy John Surgery. Even though that's not how somebody wins the Sudden Collapse Award (via injury) and it's just an unfortunate occurrence, I was still sort of right about Matt Moore not making a major impact on Tampa's season in a positive way.
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| Photo via: Keith Allison Steve Pearce was also instrumental in extending Baltimore's division lead late in the season. |
AL Central
Detroit Tigers 99-63 (90-72)
Cleveland Indians 86-76 (85-77)
Kansas City Royals 81-81 (89-73)
Chicago White Sox 69-93 (73-89)
Minnesota Twins 64-98 (70-92)
In April, I thought this was "the worst division in baseball". I was wrong (AL East takes that fake award). Kansas City surprised a lot of people by being in the division race up until last Saturday. They'll be facing Oakland in the wild-card game on Tuesday. The Tigers' bats slipped a little bit from where they were last season (Miguel Cabrera) and Justin Verlander is suddenly Tim Lincecum but the surprise of the season was Victor Martinez becoming a legitimate power hitter and an MVP candidate after missing all of 2012 and never hitting more than 25 home runs. The Royals, White Sox, and Twins all exceeded expectations thanks to their young pitching staffs and unexpected help from players like Danny Santana, Conor Gillaspie, and Lonnie Chisenhall.
Fake Andy Todd Awards
Division MVP: "Tigers First Baseman Miguel Cabrera (I mean, who else could I choose over him?)" - Andy Todd, April 2014. Well Andy, you could have chosen Victor Martinez. He was one of the two best players in the American League. Michael Brantley is the runner-up.
Division ROTY: If the Twins were in the playoff hunt at any point this season, Minnesota's Shortstop Danny Santana might have won this award but with K.C. in the wild-card, Starting Pitcher Yordano Ventura takes rookie of the division with ease.
Division Cy Young: Max Scherzer put up the strikeout totals (252 K's in 220.1 IP) but his ERA (3.15) in comparison to Cleveland's Corey Kluber (2.44) is like comparing Pedro Martinez to the best year of Javier Vazquez. Kluber was clearly better than Scherzer but Scherzer's strikeout total and team success was high enough for consideration in many circles. I picked Scherzer in the preseason but I'm not going to deny Kluber of this fake award.
Sudden Collapse Award: Justin Verlander was supposed to have fallen off last season (3.46 ERA & 3.28 FIP) but apparently, he had only begun a Roy Halladay-like decline as his 2014 was miles worse. (4.54 ERA & 3.74 FIP). This is a memo to all baseball GM's: Don't pay your 29+ year old pitchers for more than three or four seasons.
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| Jesse Johnson - USA Today Sports With all of the hype surrounding now-injured batters Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, baseball experts really slept on Danny Santana (above) and Kennys Vargas. |
AL West
Oakland Athletics 94-68 (88-74)
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 85-77 (98-64)
Texas Rangers 84-78 (67-95)
Seattle Mariners 79-83 (87-75)
Houston Astros 66-96 (70-92)
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 85-77 (98-64)
Texas Rangers 84-78 (67-95)
Seattle Mariners 79-83 (87-75)
Houston Astros 66-96 (70-92)
What the hell, Oakland?! The A's looked like clear division favorites at the all-star break and then crashed almost as badly as the late 00's Mets or this year's Brewers (more on them later). The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim ended up overcoming an injury to Garrett Richards and the continuing downward trends of Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton and won the division by ten games. When it comes to injuries, nobody got hit worse than the Texas Rangers this year. Jurickson Profar, Mitch Moreland, Prince Fielder, Matt Harrison, and Martin Perez all suffered terrible season-ending injuries. Texas was not helped by free-agent signings Alex Rios (who excelled in batting average and nothing else) and Shin-Soo Choo (who played like a washed up batter). Seattle's additions from the minors and Robinson Cano helped immensely in their exciting yet disappointing wild-card hunt.
Fake Andy Todd Awards
Division MVP: Angels Outfielder Mike Trout. I got this one right but I'm sure I'm not the only one. -Irish Jigs anyway-
Division ROTY: Taijuan Walker was not the #5 starter from day one like it was assumed before the season and George Springer (despite the lack of playing time thanks to injury) walks away with AL West Rookie of the Year honors thanks to his 20 homers in just 295 at-bats.
Division Cy Young: Mariners' Felix Hernandez will probably win the AL Cy Young so chalk that one up as a win for me.
Sudden Collapse Award: I saw Jered Weaver's production getting worse through 2013 so I just assumed that 2014 would be the year from hell for him. I was wrong. Texas Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo was the most disappointing free-agent signing that stayed healthy this year. Without much questioning, he EARNED this award.
Division MVP: Angels Outfielder Mike Trout. I got this one right but I'm sure I'm not the only one. -Irish Jigs anyway-
Division ROTY: Taijuan Walker was not the #5 starter from day one like it was assumed before the season and George Springer (despite the lack of playing time thanks to injury) walks away with AL West Rookie of the Year honors thanks to his 20 homers in just 295 at-bats.
Division Cy Young: Mariners' Felix Hernandez will probably win the AL Cy Young so chalk that one up as a win for me.
Sudden Collapse Award: I saw Jered Weaver's production getting worse through 2013 so I just assumed that 2014 would be the year from hell for him. I was wrong. Texas Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo was the most disappointing free-agent signing that stayed healthy this year. Without much questioning, he EARNED this award.
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| Tony Taormina - USA Today Sports Felix is still king despite barely missing the postseason. |
NL East
Washington Nationals 97-65 (96-66)
Atlanta Braves 90-72 (79-83)
Philadelphia Phillies 87-75? Seriously? (73-89)
New York Mets 74-88 (79-83)
Miami Marlins 71-91 (77-85)
I must've been high on something when I tried defending the terrible, washed-up Phillies in April. Washington was only one win off from my projection but ended up destroying the rest of the NL East thanks to the best regular season pitching staff in baseball. The Marlins were ehh...kind of in the playoff hunt before Giancarlo Stanton's face exploded. The Mets were 79-83 and I had no idea until I looked at the final standings just now. Apparently, their youth in pitching helped them win more than they should have also.
Fake Andy Todd Awards
Division MVP: Marlins Outfielder Giancarlo Stanton.
Division ROTY: Originally, I had thought that Christian Yelich was still rookie-eligible. As it turns out, he got enough work in 2013 for that to count towards his rookie season. I'm giving this award to Mets' Starter Jacob DeGrom, who made a serious case for NL Rookie of the Year in the second half of the season.
Division Cy Young: Somehow, Stephen Strasburg ended up as the 4th best starter in his own pitching staff even though he had a really solid season (3.14 ERA, 242 K's in 215 IP). Marlin Jose Fernandez looked like a clear favorite until he underwent Tommy John Surgery in May. Doug Fister was phenomenal despite missing the first two months (the anti-Fernandez). This was a fantastic division of pitching aces and the winner of this prestigious fake award is Atlanta's Julio Teheran for putting in a full season of work with a mediocre team around him.
Sudden Collapse Award: Braves Shortstop Andrelton Simmons was my April pick and he did disappoint BUT Nationals Third Baseman Ryan Zimmerman turned in an oddly disappointing season filled with DL-stints and overshadowing from young players like Anthony Rendon and Ian Desmond.
| (John J. Kim /Tribune photo) Despite turning in his best season to date, Strasburg was not a Cy Young or MVP candidate as I had hoped. |
NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers 93-69 (82-80)
Cincinnati Reds 92-70 (76-86)
Pittsburgh Pirates 88-74 (88-74)
St. Louis Cardinals 84-78 (90-72)
Chicago Cubs 62-100 (73-89)
Nobody told me that a full season of Ryan Braun would be so average. Hey! I got Pittsburgh's record spot-on correct! Too bad I didn't have them making it to the wildcard game again. Cincinnati's record was a result of injuries (Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips) and under-producing from players who always produce (Jay Bruce, all those injured players). St. Louis is the least deserving division winner in the Majors as their pitching staff finally has some flaws in it and yet, the Brewers epic collapse gave them an easy shot at winning the division despite all the ridiculous trades they made at the deadline (Allen Craig & Joe Kelly for... John Lackey?, Justin Masterson? starting Oscar Taveras with no other emergency backup?). The Cubs were the Cubs but with an added taste of some exciting young talent in Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, and Arismendy Alcantara.
Fake Andy Todd Awards
Division MVP: Pirates Outfielder Andrew McCutchen. He is baseball's next Jeter.
Division ROTY: Mike Olt had the power but a terribly underwhelming and undeveloped batting eye. Billy Hamilton of the Cincinnati Reds wins Rookie of the NL Central via forfeit by every other disappointing rookie in the division.
Division Cy Young: St. Louis Cardinals Adam Wainwright (2.38 ERA 1.03 WHIP) started to show some signs of slowing down as his strikeout rate plummeted in the second half of the season but, he still had an incredible season and eeks out this award over Johnny Cueto.
Sudden Collapse Award: I made a fantasy baseball dynasty league trade last year that helped absolutely nobody (yet) by dealing Matt Wieters, Jean Segura, Royals Second Baseman Johnny Giavotella, Curtis Granderson, and Travis d'Arnaud to someone for Mike Zunino and Ryan Braun right after Braun got suspended. I'm still going to lose this deal thanks to Matt Wieters but at least I can say I bailed out on Jean Segura at the right time. Segura has shown absolutely nothing besides solid defensive play since July of 2013.
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| Al Behrman/Associated Press
Ignite the "Johnny was robbed!" chants
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NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers 97-65 (94-68)
Arizona Diamondbacks 87-75 LOLOLOLOL (64-98)
San Francisco Giants 87-75 (88-74)
San Diego Padres 76-86 (77-85)
Colorado Rockies 68-94 (66-96)
The Dodgers and Giants were unsurprisingly great. The Diamondbacks were surprisingly horrifyingly bad. The Padres offense was terrible and yet, that team finished 77-85. It was really hard for anyone to make any headlines in this division when Matt Kemp was finally healthy again, Paul Goldschmidt wasn't, and Clayton Kershaw was the greatest player in baseball this year.
Fake Andy Todd Awards
Division MVP: Clayton Kershaw
Division ROTY: Many of the Rockies' bats came out of nowhere but none of them were rookies. The NL West was a division run by heavy veteran talent. Arizona's Chris Owings wins due to a small pool of young talent in NL West.
Division Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
Sudden Collapse Award: Sure, it was almost all injury related but Rockies' Outfielder Carlos Gonzalez was the weakest non-Wilin Rosario bat in Colorado's lineup when healthy.
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| Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Matt Kemp quietly re-entered MVP discussions by the end of the season. |
Up-to-date Playoff Predictions
Wildcard Games
Royals over Athletics
Giants over Pirates
1st Rd.
Angels over Royals
Tigers over Orioles
Nationals over Giants
Dodgers over Cardinals
2nd Rd.
Tigers over Angels
Nationals over Dodgers
World Series
Tigers over Nationals in 7.
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| AP Photo I don't have a clear feel for this postseason so I'm sticking with my preseason pick of rookie manager Brad Ausmus' team. |
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