Thursday, June 21, 2018

2018 NBA Mock Draft: There's Ayton To Like In This Class

#1. Phoenix Suns - C DeAndre Ayton (Arizona)


Stan Liu/Arizona Athletics
Despite a decade in the lottery, the Phoenix Suns have only managed to land one star player in Devin Booker. It's surprising how none of the rumors floating about right now have Luka Doncic reuniting here with his Slovenian head coach (now the Suns head coach), Igor Kokoskov. Now, for the first time in franchise history, they have the best odds at landing a second star with the first overall selection. DeAndre Ayton is one of the least flashy #1 picks of the decade (outside of Anthony Bennett) as centers just aren't as prevalent as they were even five years ago. He'll fall somewhere between Dwight Howard (fantastic defender at his peak but, not necessarily a big winner) and Emeka Okafor (Fine but, not worth a top-3 pick) and frankly, Phoenix would take either result at this point.

#2. Sacramento Kings - SG Luka Doncic (Slovenia)


KZS
Doncic is the prospect with the highest potential to do it all and take over a game in this draft. His only glaring weakness coming into the draft from Slovenia is his inconsistent defense but, you know who else has inconsistent defense? Lebron James. Steph Curry. James Harden. Sure, "Defense wins championships" but, teams need one hell of a good offense to win in the NBA and with De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield and Doncic, the Kings would finally have a quality offense. Doncic would immediately be the face of Sacramento basketball and I see the team caving into the hype despite GM Vlade Divac's rumored disinterest in said prospect.

#3. Atlanta Hawks - PF Marvin Bagley III (Duke)


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Marvin Bagley never struck me as this amazing prospect at Duke but, he continued to produce numbers every game and has succeeded at every level so, he is not just some fluke talent that will fail at the next level. The Hawks will not shy away from drafting anybody at all due to position because they are without a #1 player at the moment with Dennis Schroder on the trading block. Bagley's one big skill is rebounding and scoring in the paint is his forte offensively. The Hawks could use a freak athlete to play along with budding defensive leader Taurean Prince and Bagley would be a nice test case for new head coach Lloyd Pierce.

#4. Memphis Grizzlies - SF Michael Porter Jr. (Missouri)


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At this time last year, Michael Porter Jr. was the most hyped prospect coming out of high school. A lingering back injury and two college basketball games later and the nation's former #1 prospect has lost some of his luster. Porter could be the make-or-break selection for the future of Memphis basketball with Seattle's basketball vacancy lingering. Porter is much like Marvin Bagley in his scoring abilities but, Bagley is still the far more trustworthy and consistent scorer. Of course, Porter is one of the most difficult players to evaluate because we don't really have any comparable prospects in this batch of players for his short college career. He could be the best player in the draft, as was the prevailing thought a year ago, or he could be THE bust of the draft with his potential for injury seemingly higher than any other first round pick. Either way, the Grizzlies just recently started playing terribly so, they can afford to take a risky pick here, it just might cost Memphis their team if the losing becomes a habit.

#5. Dallas Mavericks - C Mohamed Bamba (Texas)


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The Dallas Mavericks are without an identity right now and have been throughout the Dirk Nowitzki multi-season farewell tour. Their biggest weakness is that they don't play any defense with a 40-year old on the court and their refusal to give Nerlens Noel any minutes last season. Dennis Smith Jr. at point guard is an exciting building piece to a grander future for Mark Cuban's team but, they still need another guard (Wes Matthews and Seth Curry are not the long-term answers) and with no shooting guards remaining worthy of a top-five pick they are left to either deal this pick in a trade or focus on defense. Mohamed Bamba is a poor man's DeAndre Jordan, a player the Mavs targeted in free agency two years ago.

#6. Orlando Magic - PG Trae Young (Oklahoma)


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Orlando needs some star power and excitement that only Aaron Gordon has been able to show flashes of lately. Elfrid Payton was occasionally fun but more than anything, a disappointment, Jonathan Isaac is not very fun to watch yet and what even is a Mario Hezonja? The Magic suck and Trae Young might just suck also but, at least his attempts at becoming the next Stephen Curry will be fun to watch either way with a high ceiling.

#7. Chicago Bulls - SF Mikal Bridges (Villanova)


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Much like his Spartan brother (but not really) Miles (his name to be announced later in the lottery), Mikal Bridges can do a little bit of everything except, this Bridge has already crossed championship waters. The Bulls need a kid who knows how to win on their team other than Ryan Arcidiacono's one college championship, also with Villanova. This team is tanking well in that Bridges won't necessarily end the tank right away but, he is the best player available and there would be no position battles to speak of in Chicago, no matter who they take here.

#8. Cleveland Cavaliers - PG Collin Sexton (Alabama)


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The Cavaliers went from being ridiculously old to being inexperienced and inconsistent once the playoff races fully kicked in. Their biggest weakness? Point Guard by far. Jordan Clarkson put on one of the worst Finals performances EVER and George Hill missed a key free throw in game one that prevented his team from taking a game away from the Warriors. This team needs an explosive point guard that can score whether Lebron James is in the team's future plans or not. Sexton is nowhere near the shooter Kyrie Irving was for this team but, he is an aggressive basketball player like Irving and that is something the team severely lacks outside of James right now. If Lebron does leave, I would put good money on Sexton being the rookie of the year because Kevin Love would likely be dealt once GM Koby Altman realizes he has to blow this team up as they are probably in the lottery with just Love, Tristan Thompson, Larry Nance Jr. and whoever they land at #8 here.

#9. New York Knicks - PF Jaren Jackson Jr. (Michigan State)


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At 18 years old, Jackson Jr. is still one of the most polished bigs in this draft class and putting him alongside Kristaps Porzingis (who would be the full-time center in this scenario) is a Knicks fan's dream. Honestly, it would be surprising to see the dominos to fall exactly like this as Jackson Jr. is a top-five prospect on most team's boards but, some players get overrated on random team's draft boards every year. Every non-playoff NBA team could use some defense and Jackson Jr. is more than ready to take his defensive game to the next level after winning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year honors during his one collegiate season. He's not a clone of Draymond Green or anything but, he's certainly worth the price of trading up in the draft if the Knicks or any other team feels passionate enough for one of this year's youngest prospects.

#10. Philadelphia 76ers - SF Miles Bridges (Michigan State)


Jeffrey Becker - USA TODAY Sports
Much like Ben Simmons, there isn't much that Miles Bridges cannot do but, Bridges CAN actually shoot. The things Bridges struggles with are fundamental skills that can be improved with the right teacher to keep him in line (and Brett Brown has done a hell of a job for Philadelphia). Bridges is not the most overpowering court presence but, this is already a team with Joel Embiid and Simmons so, they don't exactly need the most aggressive pickup this year as much as they need another high-potential player that can slot in well as a role player early. If they do trade Robert Covington, it's likely they are getting a star forward in return and Covington is not the only player leaving. If not, Bridges could be an opening night starter and look like it as well.

#11. Charlotte Hornets - PF Wendell Carter Jr. (Duke)


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Trading Dwight Howard to the Brooklyn Nets has opened the door for another big man to enter the Hornets' lineup ASAP and luckily for new GM Mitch Kupchak, one more lottery-worthy big man remains on the draft board. A team consistently stuck behind 12 or more NBA teams in terms of wins, Charlotte doesn't seem too eager to switch up their formula and Carter Jr. has a similar skillset to that of Dwight Howard. Teams with Michael Jordan in charge tend to be the least predictable at this event though so, even with Carter being a safe fit, they really could do anything (including package Kemba Walker into a deal for a top-five pick).

#12. Los Angeles Clippers - PG Jerome Robinson (Boston College)


Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire
(See under Pick #13)

#13. Los Angeles Clippers - SF Kevin Knox (Kentucky)


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Thanks to dealing Blake Griffin to Detroit, the Clippers ended up with back-to-back draft picks as neither team could do enough to avoid being one of teams bubbling under playoff contention. With their Pistons' pick, I see the Clippers taking a chance on a lesser-known high-scorer in Boston College's Jerome Robinson. The Clips will then pray that he turns into Damian Lillard because, their leading scorer in the 2017-18 season was Sixth Man Lou Williams. At #13, they'll take the top player on the board in Kentucky's Kevin Knox. Knox is an 18 year old project with a high ceiling. Knox struggles defensively at times but, makes up for it by frequently finding a way to land an open shot by staying active on his feet on offense.

#14. Denver Nuggets - SG Lonnie Walker (Miami)


Sports Illustrated
With the final lottery selection, the Nuggets will add more guard depth as they look to replace Emmanuel Mudiay's minutes with someone younger than Devin Harris. It should be some time before we see Walker really get acclimated to the style of an NBA game and there will be some embarrassing turnovers and poor shot selection along the way but, Walker could be a reliable sixth-man down the road with his shooting upside and ability to guard either the fastest guard on the court or the shooters maneuvering for space.

#15. Washington Wizards - SG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Kentucky)


FanSided.com
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has seen his stock rise at the last minute (this happens to at least one player per year) and there is even a rumor that the Toronto Raptors are trying to trade back into this year's first round to acquire the shooting guard. I foresee the Wizards' need for a backup guard that's actually worth a damn overshadowing all other teams' desires for a new guard.

#16. Phoenix Suns - PG Aaron Holiday (UCLA)


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Who knew there were still siblings from the Holiday family to be drafted? (Jrue went 17th in 2009 and Justin was an undrafted free agent in 2011 but, still plays for the Bulls in 2018). Aaron was the star for the UCLA Bruins and that used to be a huge selling point for NBA teams but, not anymore with the Bruins' struggles as of the mid-2010s. Holiday would be a nice player to use while Brandon Knight gets eased back in from a torn ACL that caused him to miss all of last season. If they don't take a guard here, it's possible that this team is keeping Elfrid Payton after he showed some flashes of good basketball late in the season.

#17. Milwaukee Bucks - SG Troy Brown Jr. (Oregon)


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A lengthy, defense-first player that could play a few positions? Sign the Bucks up. Brown's shooting motion is of great concern but, it did work for him in college. Ultimately, the Bucks need a real shooting guard that isn't Jason Terry coming off their bench and new coach Mike Budenholzer will immediately fall in love with this Duck potentially turning a Buck.

#18. San Antonio Spurs - SF Dzanan Musa (Bosnia and Herzegovina)



When there is a foreign prospect that does not have a ton of information available to even experts of the draft process, it's a safe bet that the Spurs are on the phone with that prospect on the daily. But for real, Rudy Gay declined his option and Kawhi Leonard has mentally checked out so, the need for a small forward is there and Musa can shoot like Danny Green. Unfortunately, he cannot defend like Danny Green so, he's more likely to fit coming off the bench in a Kyle Korver-type role.

#19. Atlanta Hawks - SG Josh Okogie (Georgia Tech)


AP
With John Collins and Marvin Bagley (Hypothetical #3 pick) already on board as the likely future bigs for this squad, I see the Hawks taking a guard with the 19th selection as they need guards that can score with Dennis Schroder likely being dealt sometime this offseason. Okogie will fill up a box score in ways that teams would love to end up finding this late in the first.

#20. Minnesota Timberwolves - PF Robert Williams (Texas A&M)


AP Photo/Kathy Willens
Easily the biggest surprise in my mock draft is how far Robert Williams slips here to the Timberwolves. Williams is being projected to go anywhere from #10 to #16 but, I'm hearing that his conditioning is a red flag and if there are any red flags coming out prior to the night of the draft, then it is a pretty big concern for multiple front offices. Minnesota just needs depth and a better coach (shots fired) so, Williams would be a welcome presence off the bench if they ever play him.

#21. Utah Jazz - C Mitchell Robinson (Western Kentucky)


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The surprises don't end at #20. Despite there being no big men worthy of a first round pick left after Robert Williams, the Jazz are so desperate to not have a repeat of their nearly season-killing 11-15 record without Rudy Gobert that they will do anything they can to keep the center position sturdy even if Gobert has to take some time off again. Mitchell Robinson never played a game at Western Kentucky after he decided to prepare for his NBA career instead. That sounds counter-intuitive but, they'll be abolishing the "One-and-Done" rule in the next five years probably and if a kid doesn't want to go to college for something he already has enough skill and recommendations for, then go ahead and live your dream, Mitchell Robinson. I just hope you enjoy Utah.

#22. Chicago Bulls - PG Elie Okobo (France)



The Bulls' Point Guard depth chart reads as follows...

1. Kris Dunn
2. Cameron Payne
3. Jerian Grant

That's three first-rounders with no real successes yet. Elie Okobo probably won't be good enough to start but, at least the 20-year old french guard already has a more consistent all-around game than any of the three Bulls listed above. Kris Dunn is still a former lottery pick and a work in progress but, this team could use an Elie Okobo.

#23. Indiana Pacers - SF Zhaire Smith (Texas Tech)


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As seen in the photo above, Zhaire Smith is as athletic as most of the lottery picks but, his game is nowhere near a finished product just yet. Smith would give the Pacers some needed depth at the forward position that will need some seasoning before he gets any real playing time, much like 2017's T.J. Leaf selection. He'll need to adjust to NBA defenses but, he can make an impact just by being one of the better high-energy guys involved in off-the-ball action.

#24. Portland Trail Blazers - PG Jalen Brunson (Villanova)


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Portland needs to make a move in order to get any further in the playoffs than a first-round sweep. Adding a proven winner and finally getting a quality backup for Damian Lillard seems like a natural next step for the Blazers and Jalen Brunson is a natural fit. With two NCAA championships and a National Player of the Year award, Brunson should get playing time immediately and from there, we'll see how he adjusts to the speed of the NBA (much like current Blazer Shabazz Napier).

#25. Los Angeles Lakers - PF Moritz Wagner (Michigan)


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In a little bit of a reach, I have the Lakers locking down a big that can shoot. If this team truly is the leader in the Lebron James sweepstakes, then they are going to need to improve their bench with players that can get open and hit from downtown. Wagner does not really have any NBA skills outside of his shooting but, Ryan Anderson has made a career out of that and after the first 15 picks, teams are really just throwing darts at their own personal favorites.

#26. Philadelphia 76ers - PG Jevon Carter (West Virginia)


WVU Sports/Dale Sparks
Philadelphia's only position that isn't crazy deep yet is at point guard and Jevon Carter is one of my favorite sleepers for immediate success in this class. Markelle Fultz should be better in year two and T.J. McConnell still has his moments but if either gets injured again, Carter should provide a solid immediate stopgap. Carter's defense-first game reminds me of Toronto's Delon Wright, only Carter's floor is higher.

#27. Boston Celtics - SG Kevin Huerter (Maryland)


Nick Wass/Associated Press
No team needs a deeper bench less than Boston but if they keep this pick, they'll looking at taking a shooter so that they can avoid a repeat of their game 7 woes against Cleveland this May. Huerter, much like Moritz Wagner, is exclusively a three-point shooter that needs to gain weight and some aggression in his drives before he can become an NBA regular.

#28. Golden State Warriors - PG Donte DiVincenzo (Villanova)


Eddie Pells/Associated Press
Quinn Cook surging into a real NBA player was a nice story in the later months of the NBA's regular season while Steph Curry nursed another ankle injury but, this team should still be looking for some emergency contacts with Curry and Shaun Livingston's injury histories. A nice strategy would be drafting a proven winner with streaky scoring ability that they can call up from the G-League at any time in Donte DiVincenzo. This team doesn't need a damn thing but, the Warriors won't pass up adding college's best sixth man to replace any of the veterans (like a Nick Young perhaps?) that they'll lose off the bench in the coming years.

#29. Brooklyn Nets - SF Rodions Kurucs (Latvia)


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Rodions Kurucs spent one extra year in Latvia to work on his game and bulk up and it has paid off. Brooklyn needs more enough complimentary talents before they finally get to use one of their own lottery picks next June. Kurucs isn't supposed to be more than just a role-playing forward with a nice shooting stroke but, that isn't stopping him from trying to be more. He's an interesting prospect with an unknown ceiling and this franchise can afford to take shots in the dark like this because there is little risk involved this late in the draft.

#30. Atlanta Hawks - PG De'Anthony Melton (USC)


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With their third and final first round pick, Atlanta will draft a point guard in case they do end up parting with Dennis Schroder. The only other point guard the Hawks roster is Isaiah Taylor, a glorified G-League player. De'Anthony Melton can't shoot but, will put his impact on the game in every other way before he'll hit a mid-range jumper. Atlanta's hypothetical big three going into next season should be Taurean Prince, Marvin Bagley and John Collins and Melton would be the perfect complimentary piece to all of them with good defense and smart passes.

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