Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Trades Already Made & Ones To Come, The 2017 MLB Trade Deadline Preview

Major league teams trading players prior to a week before the trade deadline, thus forcing people to rewrite and edit their pre-deadline pieces is a tradition unlike any other. Twitter has quickly transitioned from the NBA's Woj Season to the MLB's Rosenthal Season with three trades occurring over a three-day span in the middle of the month. If I were a betting man, I'd say that the biggest names to get dealt this season are already off the market (Jose Quintana & J.D. Martinez) but, this is baseball, America's most unpredictable sport.

Trading season kicked off with a whimper in late June when the Marlins chose J.T. Riddle as their shortstop of the future by dealing defense-only Adeiny Hechavarria to the Rays for speedy AA outfielder Braxton Lee and 22-year old A-ball righty Ethan Clark. The change of scenery has yet to show any alterations in Hechavarria's game and the two minor leaguers are not projected for major league success so, this deal seems like one everybody will forget by next July.

One week later, the Blue Jays made two separate deals, acquiring sudden clubhouse headache Miguel Montero as Canada's first reasonable backup catcher of 2017 and 22-year old project outfielder Eduard Pinto. Toronto is not clearly buying or selling yet as they gave up on veteran reliever Jason Grilli and his 6.97 ERA (now with Texas) as most teams would have done and picked up a veteran catcher because Luke Maile and his .121 average are not worthy of a spot on the 40-man roster, let alone the 25-man list that forces John Gibbons to use Maile on a regular basis.

The All-Star break could have also been labeled the Hot Stove break as the rumor mill always kicks into high gear following the mid-Summer classic. This season barely even wasted any time before rumors turned into reality on the 13th. The first major trade piece was sent a short distance to the defending champions from their cross-town... I don't if "rivals" really applies here but sure.. rivals when the best lefty on the block (Jose Quintana) went to the Cubs for a haul of enticing prospects. As if the White Sox did not already have enough in the way of Top 100 prospects, GM Rick Hahn received outfielder Eloy Jimenez and pitcher Dylan Cease (along with infielders Matt Rose and Bryant Flete) all for one arm that had underperformed halfway through the season. Acquiring the #8 and #63 prospects in baseball (according to MLB.com) alongside two solidly performing infielders for at least a season and a half of Jose Quintana is an excellent move and would have been fairly lopsided if it weren't for the two team-option years remaining on the newest Cub's contract. Overall, a fair deal if Quintana's shiny debut is a sign of things to come (7 shutout innings with 12 strikeouts).

CBSSports.com
Jose Quintana's Cubs tenure is off to a brilliant start.


In response to their rivals making a deal, the Brewers swapped AAA All-Star 1B Garrett Cooper with Yankee southpaw Tyler Webb to help glue together a random bullpen in Milwaukee while the Yankees desperately clung onto the nearest body resembling a major league first baseman. So far, so meh.

The Nationals tried solving their serious closer concerns by adding two non-closers (though both have experience in the ninth inning). Washington does not NEED any additional help until October but, with Oakland trying to sell high on any and all rostered veterans, the Nats jumped at the chance to scoop up Sean Doolittle (36 career saves) and Ryan Madson (85 career saves). All it cost the NL East leaders was Blake Treinen during a career-worst season, promising A-ball third baseman Sheldon Neuse and 19-year old lefty Jesus Luzardo. Giving up last year's third round pick (Luzardo) in addition to Treinen and Neuse might seem like a bit much but, the Nationals might be in their last 18 months of Bryce Harper and if there's any team that should be selling everything for a championship, it's them.

The most surprising deal to me was Arizona dealing three minor league shortstops (Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King) for right fielder J.D. Martinez. Martinez has outperformed all expectations as a Tiger and after his return from a six-week lisfranc injury, the 29-year old has a .305/.388/.630 line and 16 homers. The D-Backs didn't strike me as a team willing to acquire or capable of adding a hitter of Martinez's stature. He is a lefty-destroyer, something the Diamondbacks were missing in their hunt to maintain home-field advantage in the NL's wildcard game.

Later on that same night, the Yankees swooped in on the Red Sox' budding deal with the White Sox and claimed three major leaguers for the price of New York's third-best prospect (OF Blake Rutherford), a first-round pick from 2013 (LHP Ian Clarkin), a .382 hitter in AA (CF Tito Polo) and they likely forced Chicago to take on disappointing reliever Tyler Clippard. Clippard will be the only player to have an immediate impact on the White Sox as he is now likely their closer in a bizarre turn of events. Clippard might get the role because the Yankees' return in this deal included closer David Robertson (2nd stint in pinstripes), reliever Tommy Kahnle and third baseman Todd Frazier. As a result of this trade and the Quintana deal, the White Sox now own a league-high ten of MLB.com's top 100 prospects including the recently promoted Yoan Moncada.

Lastly, the Marlins added four of Seattle's top 30 prospects (OF Brayan Hernandez and pitchers Lukas Schiraldi, Pablo Lopez and Brandon Miller) for one David Phelps. Granted, Seattle does not have a flashy farm system but, four guys for David Phelps is a deal any team would love to make.

Here are the Major League Baseball Standings as of the morning of July 21st.

Green = Buyers
Blue = Undecided as of the 21st
Red = Sellers

AL East
Boston Red Sox 54-43
Tampa Bay Rays 51-45
New York Yankees 49-45
Baltimore Orioles 46-49
Toronto Blue Jays 44-51

AL Central
Cleveland Indians 48-45
Minnesota Twins 48-46
Kansas City Royals 47-47
Detroit Tigers 43-51
Chicago White Sox 38-54

AL West
Houston Astros 63-32
Seattle Mariners 48-49
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 47-50
Texas Rangers 45-50
Oakland Athletics 43-52

NL East
Washington Nationals 57-37
Atlanta Braves 46-48
New York Mets 43-50
Miami Marlins 42-51
Philadelphia Phillies 32-61

NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers 52-46
Chicago Cubs 49-45
Pittsburgh Pirates 48-48
St. Louis Cardinals 46-49
Cincinnati Reds 40-55

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers 66-30
Arizona Diamondbacks 55-40
Colorado Rockies 56-41
San Diego Padres 41-54
San Francisco Giants 37-60

The Royals were guaranteed sellers until they turned a winning corner sometime in June. Now, they are trapped with multiple key players on expiring contracts and an outside shot at contending for another surprise championship run. The Angels should never sell as long as they have Mike Trout unless they grow confident enough in their own managerial staff to deal Trout for the entire White Sox minor league system. The Braves should almost certainly be sellers 8.5 games out of the wildcard chase and 11 games behind their division leaders but much like last season, Atlanta is inexplicably rumored to be interested in every big name once a player is finally dealt (see: Quintana, Chris Sale, etc.). With the mixed signals coming from Atlanta, the hopelessness of Anaheim and the never-say-never attitude of the 2015 champion Royals, these three are totally unpredictable when it comes to trades.  Let's go team-by-team and figure out who every GM has a realistic shot at acquiring and shopping away before July 31st's trade deadline or the August 30th waiver deadline. Typically, I would have a paragraph summary with each team on their season to this point and additional explanations on why they'd be making any moves but, due to an unforseen amount of action that has already taken place and an unexpected illness in the process of creating this deadline piece, I must save my summaries on teams for sometime in the future. 

Since I began mapping all of this out, 3 separate trades have taken place...

The Twins acquired SP Jaime Garcia & C Anthony Recker from Atlanta for RHP Huascar Ynoa and cash considerations.

The Royals acquired SP Trevor Cahill, RP Brandon Maurer & RP Ryan Buchter from San Diego for SP Travis Wood, RP Matt Strahm & IF Esteury Ruiz

The Rays acquired RP Sergio Romo from the Dodgers for a player to be named or cash.

Boston Red Sox
Positional Targets: Third baseman or men, backup hitter, bullpen assistance
Specific Targets: Yunel Escobar, Jose Reyes, Manny Machado?, Conor Gillaspie, Eduardo Nunez, Addison Reed, Hunter Strickland, Pat Neshek
Any big-name prospects they might deal?: With Dombrowski in charge, anything is possible. 3B Rafael Devers would be the hardest player to part with, especially given the team's current corner infield security.

Tampa Bay Rays
Positional Targets: Bullpen help, outfielder(s?)
Specific Targets: Michael Lorenzen, Brad Hand, Brandon Maurer, Jeremy Jeffress, Melky Cabrera, Carlos Gomez, Hunter Pence?
Any big-name prospects they might deal?: One of 1B Jake Bauers and 1B Casey Gillaspie, RHP Jose De Leon, RHP Chih Wei-Hu

New York Yankees
Positional Targets: Corner infielder, Starting Pitching
Specific Targets: Sonny Gray, Yu Darvish, Matt Moore, Eduardo Nunez, Steve Pearce, Yangervis Solarte?
Any big-name prospects they might deal?: Unless the player has already appeared in the majors (ex: OF Clint Frazier), the entire farm could be for sale if someone like Yu Darvish is truly on the table.

Baltimore Orioles
On The Market: Everyone not named Dylan Bundy, Jonathan Schoop or Adam Jones.
Who gets a bigger post-deadline role?: RPs Jimmy Yacabonis & Stefan Crichton and C Chance Sisco.

Toronto Blue Jays
On The Market: SPs J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada & Francisco Liriano, RPs Danny Barnes, Joe Biagini & Aaron Loup, IF Darwin Barney, SS Troy Tulowitzki, utilityman Steve Pearce, DH Kendrys Morales
Who gets a bigger post-deadline role?: OF Anthony Alford and SP Mike Bolsinger.

Cleveland Indians
Positional Targets: Catcher, outfield depth, Starting Pitcher
Specific Targets: Jonathan Lucroy, Cameron Rupp, Wellington Castillo, Marcell Ozuna, Jay Bruce?, Carlos Gomez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Scott Feldman, Dan Straily
Any big-name prospects they might deal?: Everybody including Bradley Zimmer is for sale if the right all-star becomes available.

Minnesota Twins
Positional Targets: Multiple Pitchers, outfielder?
Specific Targets: Jhoulys Chacin, Jaime Garcia, Jeremy Hellickson, Curtis Granderson?, Matt Joyce?, Howie Kendrick
Any big-name prospects they might deal?: RHP Felix Jorge is the only name I'd deal from this promising core of young players.

Kansas City Royals
Positional Targets: Pitching (like... a lot of it) and outfielders.
Specific Targets: Jeff Samardzija?, Sonny Gray, J.A. Happ, Raisel Iglesias, Hector Neris, Santiago Casilla, Justin Upton?, Nick Markakis, Denard Span
Any big-name prospects they might deal?: C Chase Vallot.

Detroit Tigers
On The Market: EVERYONE not named Miguel Cabrera.
Who gets a bigger post-deadline role?: Utilityman Jim Adducci, RPs Joe Jimenez & Bruce Rondon, SP Myles Jaye

Chicago White Sox
On The Market: SPs James Shields, Derek Holland, Mike Pelfrey & Miguel Gonzalez, RPs Dan Jennings, Anthony Swarzak & Tyler Clippard, OF Melky Cabrera
Who gets a bigger post-deadline role?: SPs Lucas Giolito & Reynaldo Lopez, OF Jacob May, RPs Matt Purke & Zach Burdi

Houston Astros
Positional Targets: Starting Pitcher, Tony Sipp replacement
Specific Targets: Justin Verlander, Michael Fulmer, Edinson Volquez, Dan Straily, J.A. Happ, Justin Wilson, Tony Cingrani, Mark Melancon
Any big-name prospects they might deal?: OFs Kyle Tucker & Teoscar Hernandez, RHP Franklin Perez

Seattle Mariners
Positional Targets: Starting Pitching X 1,000,000
Specific Targets: Scott Feldman, Jhoulys Chacin, Matt Moore, Jeff Samardzija, Matt Cain, Marco Estrada
Any big-name prospects they might deal?: Yes, everybody will be available for reliable starting pitching.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
On The Market: SP Ricky Nolasco, RPs Bud Norris, Blake Parker & David Hernandez, 3Bs Luis Valbuena & Yunel Escobar, OFs Ben Revere & Kole Calhoun
Who gets a bigger post-deadline role?: SP Parker Bridwell, RP Cam Bedrosian, 3B Kaleb Cowart, RP Brooks Pounders

Texas Rangers
On The Market: Everyone not named Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara or Elvis Andrus.
Who gets a bigger post-deadline role?: SP Austin Bibens-Dirkx, OF Ryan Rua & utilityman Jurickson Profar

Oakland Athletics
On The Market: SP Sonny Gray, RPs John Axford, Daniel Coulombe, Liam Hendriks & Santiago Casilla, 1B Yonder Alonso, IF Jed Lowrie, OFs Matt Joyce, Rajai Davis & Khris Davis?
Who gets a bigger post-deadline role?: SP Daniel Mengden, IF Joey Wendle, OFs Mark Canha & Jaff Decker

Washington Nationals
Positional Targets: Starting Pitcher, Outfielder
Specific Targets: Justin Verlander, Sonny Gray, Jeff Samardzija, Rajai Davis, Denard Span, Melky Cabrera
Any big-name prospects they might deal?: C Pedro Severino, OF Victor Robles, SS Luis Garcia

Atlanta Braves
On The Market: SPs Jaime Garcia & R.A. Dickey, RPs Jose Ramirez, Arodys Vizcaino & Jim Johnson, C Tyler Flowers, 2B Brandon Phillips, OF Nick Markakis
Who gets a bigger post-deadline role?: SP Lucas Sims, RPs Mauricio Cabrera & Enrique Burgos

New York Mets
On The Market: RPs Jerry Blevins, Josh Edgin, Josh Smoker, Fernando Salas, Hansel Robles & Addison Reed, C Travis d'Arnaud, 1B Lucas Duda, IF Asdrubal Cabrera, OFs Jay Bruce & Curtis Granderson
Who gets a bigger post-deadline role?: RPs Chasen Bradford, Logan Pill & Ben Rowen, C Kevin Plaeecki and SS Gavin Cecchini

Miami Marlins
On The Market: SPs Dan Straily, Adam Conley & Edinson Volquez, RPs Dustin McGowan, A.J. Ramos, Vance Worley, Junichi Tazawa & Brad Ziegler, C A.J. Ellis, 1B Justin Bour?, 2B Dee Gordon, 3B Martin Prado and OF Marcell Ozuna
Who gets a bigger post-deadline role?: SPs Justin Nicolino & Chris O'Grady, RP Drew Steckenreider, C Tomas Telis, IF Miguel Rojas & utilityman Steve Lombardozzi

Philadelphia Phillies
On The Market: Anybody over 27 years old and 1B Tommy Joseph.
Who gets a bigger post-deadline role?: SP Ben Lively, RP Edubray Ramos, C Jorge Alfaro, 1B Rhys Hoskins and OF Roman Quinn.

Milwaukee Brewers
Positional Targets: Starting Pitcher, bullpen help, Second Baseman
Specific Targets: Sonny Gray, J.A. Happ, Kevin Gausman, Raisel Iglesias, Dan Jennings, Mychal Givens, Ian Kinsler, Jed Lowrie
Any big-name prospects they might deal?: OF Corey Ray, RHP Luis Ortiz, IF Isan Diaz and OF Trent Clark

Chicago Cubs
Positional Targets: Starting Pitcher, one more star
Specific Targets: Yu Darvish, Justin Verlander, Sonny Gray, Justin Upton?, Yoenis Cespedes?, Wil Myers?
Any big-name prospects they might deal?: After Eloy left, everybody was marked "available".

Pittsburgh Pirates
Positional Targets: Starting Pitcher and a reliever.
Specific Targets: Marco Estrada, Wade Miley, Jeremy Hellickson, Anthony Swarzak, Brad Brach, Brad Hand, Hunter Strickland
Any big-name prospects they might deal?: SS Cole Tucker and RHP Luis Escobar

St. Louis Cardinals
Positional Targets: Anything and everything but a Catcher.
Specific Targets: Kevin Gausman, Miguel Gonzalez, Homer Bailey, Santiago Casilla, A.J. Ramos, Zach Britton, Jed Lowrie, Howie Kendrick, Hunter Pence?, Denard Span
Any big-name prospects they might deal?: They may be reluctant to deal anyone with high ceilings.

Cincinnati Reds
On The Market: SPs Homer Bailey & Scott Feldman, every reliever, C Devin Mesoraco
Who gets a bigger post-deadline role?: SPs Cody Reed & Lisalverto Bonilla & RP Kevin Shackelford

Los Angeles Dodgers
Positional Targets: Starting Pitcher.
Specific Targets: Sonny Gray, Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels
Any big-name prospects they might deal?: Every prospect is for sale with how important this run is for the Dodgers.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Positional Targets: Closer, Catcher
Specific Targets: Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Justin Wilson, Raisel Iglesias, Nick Hundley, Cameron Rupp, Jonathan Lucroy
Any big-name prospects they might deal?: There are no "big" names in the D-Backs' system so, everyone is available.

Colorado Rockies
Positional Targets: Relievers and a shortstop.
Specific Targets: Darren O'Day, Anthony Swarzak, Tony Cingrani, Alex Wilson, Kyle Ryan, Josh Edgin, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jose Iglesias, Troy Tulowitzki?
Any big-name prospects they might deal?: RHP Peter Lambert, OF Jordan Patterson, 2B Forrest Wall

San Diego Padres
On The Market: SPs Clayton Richard & Jhoulys Chacin, RPs Brad Hand, Kirby Yates and Craig Stammen, C Hector Sanchez & OF Jabari Blash
Who gets a bigger post-deadline role?: SPs Dillon Overton & Walker Lockett & RP Carter Capps

San Francisco Giants
On The Market: Everyone not named Buster Posey or Madison Bumgarner
Who gets a bigger post-deadline role?: IF Orlando Calixte, SPs Chris Stratton & Tyler Beede

Please note that the following does not consider contracts and is mostly just fun nonsense ideas...

9 Deals I want to see happen (Not necessarily going for realistic here)
1. Detroit sends Justin Verlander to Milwaukee for IF Isan Diaz, RHP Brandon Woodruff & a low-level body and/or cash.
2. Texas sends Yu Darvish and Jeremy Jeffress to the Cubs for DH Kyle Schwarber, RHP Jose Albertos & RHP Duane Underwood.
3. Texas sends Adrian Beltre to Boston for 3B Michael Chavis, RHP Roniel Raudes & a low-level body.
4. Oakland sends Sonny Gray to Houston for OF Kyle Tucker & a low-level body.
5. Baltimore sends Zach Britton & Brad Brach to the Dodgers for OF Yusniel Diaz, SS Gavin Lux and RHP Brock Stewart.
6. Toronto sends Troy Tulowitzki back to Colorado for Carlos Gonzalez and nobody wins.
7. Texas sends Cole Hamels to the Dodgers for RHP Yadier Alvarez and three low-level bodies.
8. Texas sends Jonathan Lucroy to Cleveland for 1B Bobby Bradley, RHP Shane Bieber and LHP Ryan Merritt.
9. The Mets send Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and Addison Reed to Tampa Bay for RHP Jose De Leon, OF Garrett Whitley & cash.

No, I'm not necessarily rooting for a complete Texas Ranger rebuild, they just seem to be the team most ready to copy the White Sox' recent strategy of acquiring as many Top 100 prospects as possible for your older core. Also, I need Kyle Schwarber to DH somewhere. Some of those trades honestly make my eyes burn but, it sure would create a lot of havoc on a fun timeline and that was my whole purpose in figuring those ***FLAWLESS*** trade ideas out. 

Happy Rosenthal Season! and may the trades be in your team's favor.

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