Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Enjoy my 2017 NFL Mock Draft before everyone slips

By now, everyone understands the concept of a mock draft and it is a fairly easy task to complete, although accuracy is always optional, but this year's class seems especially difficult and it begins at the very top. "What are the Browns thinking?" is typically a question asked with an exclamation but, this year the Browns are all in on moneyball (or some variation of it) and have shown a willingness and affinity for acquiring more draft picks by trading down so, that is certainly a possibility with both the #1 and #12 picks. Do any of the other two teams (New Orleans and Tennessee) with multiple firsts trade around their picks also? Who knows. It's a fun idea to daydream about but, making up future trades is not really a mock draft's purpose unless you are a professional NFL GM and that I am not (Although, I will hint at teams looking to move down or up without explicitly mapping out a complicated trade prediction).

Other storylines revolve around all of the various red flags that might tear this and every other mock draft apart when Reuben Foster (diluted urine sample), Jabrill Peppers (diluted urine sample), Caleb Brantley (battery arrest) and Patrick Mahomes (odd man out at QB) all fall and have their every movement documented in the green room on live television. One of the more exciting talents on my draft board is also not going to get drafted anywhere close to the first round due to a recorded punch (at Oklahoma) and a rumored punch and more (in high school). The amount of storylines are impossible to keep up with at the moment and the way teams view some of the concerns like position scarcity or off-field issues obviously make a ton of difference on a pick-by-pick basis. After all, Joe Mixon is a legitimate character concern in a draft for a league that views Colin Kaepernick as a problem so, there's no reason Mixon should be drafted... right?

The first domino to fall will be...

#1. Cleveland Browns - DE Myles Garrett (Texas A&M)


AP Photo/David J. Phillip

Current Depth (DE): Emmanuel Ogbah, Nate Orchard, Carl Nassib, Tyrone Holmes
Other Options: QBs Mitchell Trubisky & Deshaun Watson, Trade?

Much like Pablo Honey is technically a Radiohead album, the Cleveland Browns are technically an NFL franchise and the offensive line is their "Creep", the only thing that is 100% ready for primetime and indicative of what this team wants to become. Nothing this team has done since the Courtney Brown pick would be considered "obvious" and they could go out on a limb here by trying to find their franchise quarterback again (If they do that here, it would likely be Trubisky). Again, everything is possible but, Myles Garrett is the top prospect by a fairly decent margin and Nate Orchard is not a good starter.

#2. San Francisco 49ers - QB Mitchell Trubisky (North Carolina)


Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Current Depth (QB): Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley
Other Options: QB Deshaun Watson, DEs Myles Garrett & Solomon Thomas, Safeties Jamal Adams & Malik Hooker

Another team in need of pretty much everything, the 49ers are nowhere near competing for a playoff spot and might want to build a team around some stopgap quarterbacks before finding their leader for the future. Unfortunately for them, the only two QBs new GM John Lynch was able to acquire from the scrap heap were Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley: Yawns in quarterback form. The ceilings on both are not high enough for the team to not consider adding a fancy new arm early in the draft. I think that the ownership wants to avoid another shotgunnner with questionable accuracy in some eyes (Watson) and they'll bite on the bigger unknown future of Trubisky.

#3. Chicago Bears - S Malik Hooker (Ohio State)


Joe Maiorana - USA TODAY Sports
Current Depth (S): Quintin Demps, Adrian Amos, Harold Jones-Quartey, Chris Prosinski, DeAndre Houston-Carson, Deon Bush
Other Options: DE Solomon Thomas, QBs Deshaun Watson & Mitchell Trubisky, S Jamal Adams, Trade?
Chicago is just like the first two teams in that they COULD reasonably select a quarterback (I'd like Watson to go here) but, there are so many holes to still fill on this roster that it is much safer to not embarrass yourselves with Mike Glennon for a year. Ballhawking safety Malik Hooker is a neat fix for a defensive backfield that was completely broken by injuries and underperformance in 2016.

#4. Jacksonville Jaguars - TE O.J. Howard (Alabama)


Kim Klement - USA TODAY Sports


Current Depth (TE): Mychal Rivera, Marcedes Lewis, Ben Koyack, Neal Sterling, E.J. Bibbs, Gannon Sinclair
Other Options: QB Deshaun Watson, RB Leonard Fournette, DE Solomon Thomas, Trade?

Whether Tom Coughlin was telling the truth or not this Spring when he insisted that the team will fix Blake Bortles will be tested when a certain Clemson-based quarterback is still available at pick #4. I expect Jacksonville to somehow double down on their trust in Bortles by giving him one more safety blanket in elite tight end prospect O.J. Howard before declaring the Bortles era a "failure" the way that so much of the media already has.

#5. Tennessee Titans - DE Solomon Thomas (Stanford)


Don Feria - isiphotos.com
Current Depth (DE): Jurrell Casey, Karl Klug, DaQuan Jones, Angelo Blackson, Caushaud Lyons, Mehdi Abdesmad
Other Options: WR Mike Williams, Safeties Malik Hooker & Jamal Adams, TE O.J. Howard, Trade?
Acquired in the Rams' deal up for Jared Goff last season, the Titans seem fully willing to trade down once again and why not when you could acquire future first round picks of this caliber? If they do choose to keep the pick, Tennessee could see DE Solomon Thomas slide from his projected top three value to the fifth pick. The Titans would be smart to snatch up the best player available when they are so close to a playoff team and any minor upgrade could be a humongous difference in fate.

#6. New York Jets - QB Deshaun Watson (Clemson)


Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Current Depth (QB): Josh McCown, Bryce Petty, Christian Hackenberg
Other Options: QBs Mitchell Trubisky & DeShone Kizer, TE O.J. Howard, DT Jonathan Allen
The Jets are an absolute mess and need a great leader in the clubhouse.  By great clubhouse leader, I don't mean a grizzly veteran that's never won anything  (see: Josh McCown, Matt Forte' & David Harris). The Jets and their fans need any type of hope for the future, something they have not had since Mark Sanchez was drafted. I have been saying since the college national championship game that Watson is a lock to be drafted in the top five so, if the Jets have a chance one pick later, they better send in their pick to the commissioner before they get the chance to outthink themselves and surround a mediocre quarterback with a strong team because they've been doing that for nearly a decade. 

#7. Los Angeles Chargers - DT Jonathan Allen (Alabama)


Cedric Mason - Touchdown Alabama Magazine
Current Depth (DT): Brandon Mebane, Damion Square
Other Options: WR Mike Williams, RBs Leonard Fournette & Christian McCaffrey, QBs Deshaun Watson & Mitchell Trubisky, Trade?
The only Los Angeles-based team with a first round pick, the Chargers don't need much from their current team other than health from a few key members for them to be playoff contenders again. The biggest need on their roster is a future plan at defensive tackle and luckily for new head coach Anthony Lynn, Jonathan Allen might be the best player available at #7. 

#8. Carolina Panthers - CB Marshon Lattimore (Ohio State)


Marvin Fong - The Plain Dealer
Current Depth (CB): James Bradberry, Darryl Worley, Captain Munnerlyn, Teddy Williams, Zack Sanchez, Tyler Patmon, Lou Young, Jeff Richards
Other Options: RB Leonard Fournette, WRs Mike Williams & John Ross, Safeties Malik Hooker & Jamal Adams, Trade?
I can see why everyone thinks this is the spot for the first running back to be taken off the board with Jonathan Stewart being the one pre-2010s RB still with his original franchise and no clear successor in Charlotte. This is still a team only two years removed from a Super Bowl and the main reason for their failures last season  (outside of lingering Cam Newton injuries) were the struggles of their defensive backs against guys like Julio Jones, Mike Evans and Michael Thomas twice a year. Marshon Lattimore has a sketchy injury history but the team did reunite with Captain Munnerlyn this offseason in case of emergency.

#9. Cincinnati Bengals - S Jamal Adams (LSU)


John Korduner/Icon Sportswure
Current Depth (S): George Iloka, Shawn Williams, Clayton Fejedelem, Derron Smith
Other Options: RB Leonard Fournette, DT Jonathan Allen, G Forrest Lamp, ILB Reuben Foster
While Hooker can follow the football anywhere, Adams is more focused on disrupting players and making tackles when nobody else on the defense could. George Iloka is already a valuable starting safety and with Shawn Williams not ready to replace Reggie Nelson last season, it would seem likely that Marvin Lewis seeks an upgrade in the defensive backfield.

#10. Buffalo Bills - WR Mike Williams (Clemson)


Jamie Squire - Getty Images
Current Depth (WR): Sammy Watkins, Andre Holmes, Kolby Listenbee, Corey Brown, Walt Powell, Brandon Tate, Dezmin Lewis, Jeremy Butler, Corey Washington
Other Options: WRs John Ross & Corey Davis, QBs DeShone Kizer & Mitchell Trubisky
Sammy Watkins should be one of the best receivers in the world but, injuries have destroyed him year after year. Last season was especially difficult for Buffalo when they needed to heavily rely on Robert Woods and Marqise Goodwin while trying to decipher whether or not Tyrod Taylor was their quarterback of the future.  This seems like the most obvious position-team draft fit among the 32 teams and GM Doug Whaley would be insane not to pick one of the top three receivers unless he found a QB he loves more than Taylor.

#11. New Orleans Saints - CB Marlon Humphrey (Alabama)


Harry How/Getty Images
Current Depth (CB): Delvin Breaux, P.J. Williams, Sterling Moore, Ken Crawley, Damian Swann, De'Vante Harris, Anthony Gaitor, Taveze Calhoun, Forrest Hightower, Jimmy Pruitt
Other Options: TE O.J. Howard, CB Marshon Lattimore, WRs Mike Williams & John Ross, Trade?
The Saints' defense has been terrible for years and despite promising improvement from younger players like Breaux, Stephone Anthony and Sheldon Rankins, they are still terrible as a whole. I'm not sure how the team completely cures their defensive ailments under Sean Payton but, placing one of the top corners in the draft opposite Breaux can only help. They may also look to ship off this pick for a Malcolm Butler or a Richard Sherman or even try to replace Brandin Cooks but, they need to focus on defense and let Drew Brees do the rest. 

#12. Cleveland Browns - S/LB Jabrill Peppers (Michigan)

Sports Illustrated
Current Depth (S): Derrick Kindred, Ibraheim Campbell, Ed Reynolds, Tyvis Powell, Justin Currie
Other Options: QB Mitchell Trubisky, WRs Corey Davis & John Ross, CBs Marshon Lattimore & Marlon Humphrey, OLB T.J. Watt, Trade?
Nobody knows what this front office is thinking outside of accumulating a ton of potential and seemingly grabbing players with highly-touted college careers. Peppers was a Heisman finalist for some reason and the Browns seem like a team that would love to try the safety/linebacker hybrid that the Cardinals and Rams have had success experimenting with. 

#13. Arizona Cardinals - OT Ryan Ramczyk (Wisconsin)

Dan Sanger - Icon Sportswire
Current Depth (OT): D.J. Humphries, Jared Veldheer, Ulrick John, John Wetzel, Cole Toner, Givens Price
Other Options: QBs DeShone Kizer & Patrick Mahomes, WR John Ross, G Forrest Lamp, OT Cam Robinson
Carson Palmer won't last forever (he certainly didn't last season) and while it'd be nice to get a project QB like Kizer or Mahomes, the stubborn nature of Bruce Arians might force the team to take one last chance at protecting Palmer before starting over again. Ramczyk is the latest disciple from the Wisconsin School for Offensive Linemen who want to block and do other stuff good too. He's no Joe Thomas but, he's better than Gabe Carimi. 

#14. Philadelphia Eagles - RB Leonard Fournette (LSU)

Twitter
Current Depth (RB): Ryan Mathews, Wendell Smallwood, Darren Sproles, Terrell Watson
Other Options: RBs Dalvin Cook & Christian McCaffrey, WRs Corey Davis & John Ross, OT Ryan Ramczyk, CBs Marlon Humphrey & Marshon Lattimore
The value of the draft day running back was never lower until Ezekiel Elliott revived the position last season. I see teams being more hesitant than most fans do this season. Fournette will get the Philly draft crowd excited as he is a step up from the mess they had last year. Darren Sproles will be able to keep his role as a change-of-pace, pass catcher and Fournette is the type of runner that will ware down defenses four yards at a time.

#15. Indianapolis Colts - G Forrest Lamp (Western Kentucky)

Hans Pennink - Associated Press
Current Depth (G): Jack Mewhort, Denzelle Good, Joe Haeg
Other Options: S/LB Jabrill Peppers, RBs Leonard Fournette & Dalvin Cook, DEs Taco Charlton & Derek Barnett
Hopefully, new GM Chris Ballard understands that his team must protect Andrew Luck at all costs by drafting an offensive lineman. If they feel like shoring up a respectable defense, they could also reasonably draft any position on that side of the ball but, Andrew Luck is the face of the franchise and they don't need a great defense to bounce back into the postseason.

#16. Baltimore Ravens - WR John Ross (Washington)

Jennifer Buchanan - USA TODAY Sports
Current Depth (WR): Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman, Chris Moore, Michael Campanaro, Chris Matthews, Vince Mayle, Keenan Reynolds, Kenny Bell
Other Options: WR Corey Davis, RBs Dalvin Cook & Christian McCaffrey, OT Ryan Ramczyk, DE Taco Charlton
Losing Steve Smith Sr. is huge when you consider how absent Mike Wallace was from the end zone the three years prior to him becoming a Raven. Also, Breshad Perriman has speed but not much else whereas John Ross is the slot receiver this team desperately needs. His hands are far from perfect but, he might be the most explosive talent on offense in this draft not named Joe Mixon.

#17. Washington - DE Taco Charlton (Michigan)

Allison Farrand/Michigan Daily
Current Depth (DE): Ziggy Hood, Stacy McGee, Terrell McClain, Anthony Lanier, Matt Ioannidis
Other Options: DT Malik McDowell, ILB Reuben Foster, DE Tim Williams, RBs Christian McCaffrey & Dalvin Cook
Washington needs to shut down Dak Prescott a bit more frequently than they did last season in order to win the NFC East. They are in desperate need of a running back but, you can get a nice player like Alvin Kamara in the second. Until then, load up on defense while the rest of your division gets another year of experience on their up-and-coming offenses.

#18. Tennessee Titans - WR Corey Davis (Western Michigan)

AP Photo/Carlos Osorio
Current Depth (WR): Rishard Matthews, Tajae Sharpe, Harry Douglas, Tre McBride, Jonathan Krause, K.J. Maye, Eric Weems
Other Options: WR John Ross, DE Tim Williams, CBs Kevin King & Tre'Davious White, Trade?
If GM Jon Robinson was serious about acquiring Brandin Cooks before the young wideout was dealt to New England, then this team is twiddling their thumbs in anticipation for a new #1 receiver to choose. This seems to be the pick most likely to be dealt considering two wideouts are already off my board and the Titans need both a corner and receiver and could easily find each via trade. They may trade up or down, either way the Titan phones will be ringing.

#19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - OLB Haason Reddick (Temple)

Mitchell Leff - Getty Images
Current Depth (OLB): Lavonte David, Adarius Glanton, Cameron Lynch, Devante Bond
Other Options: CBs Kevin King, Tre'Davious White & Adoree' Jackson, RBs Christian McCaffrey & Dalvin Cook, OT Cam Robinson, OLB T.J. Watt
The fastest linebacker in this year's class vaulted up draft boards everywhere with his ridiculous combine showing. Outside of Lavonte David, this team has no outside linebacker ready to play every down. Reddick would cure that issue and cover the ground that David used to be 100% able to cover before he started suffering injuries. The Doug Martin issue is weird and may force them to take another running back early but, they seem to be a corner and a linebacker away from fielding a great defense.

#20. Denver Broncos - OT Cam Robinson (Alabama)

Matthew Emmons - USA TODAY Sports
Current Depth (OT): Menelik Watson, Ty Sambrailo, Donald Stephenson, Michael Schofield, Justin Murray
Other Options: TE David Njoku, OT Garett Bolles, DTs Malik McDowell & Chris Wormley
With Paxton Lynch and/or Trevor Siemian set in stone as the future quarterbacks of this team for the next 2+ years, it would be wise for John Elway to help them in the ride to potential stardom with a reliable offensive player in some form. The most sensible player to take would be a tackle to protect the quarterback's blind side and Robinson fits that mold. This is still a defense-first team however, and Sylvester Williams leaves a big enough hole that they might panic and reach for a player at defensive tackle.

#21. Detroit Lions - OLB T.J. Watt (Wisconsin)

Daniel Gallen
Current Depth (OLB): Antwione Williams, Thurston Armbrister, Brandon Chubb
Other Options: S/LB Jabrill Peppers, OLB Haason Reddick, ILBs Zach Cunningham & Reuben Foster
"De-fense. clap clap. De-fense. clap clap" will be the chant heard from wherever the Lions' draft party is taking place. This team needs defense and they need it in multiple forms (Ziggy Ansah and Darius Slay are safe). There has to be a team out there that loves T.J. Watt based on name-value alone and I would bet on Detroit buying all the way in on this pass-rush specialist with a late-first round grade.

#22. Miami Dolphins - CB Kevin King (Washington)

Lindsey Wasson/The Seattle Times
Current Depth (CB): Byron Maxwell, Tony Lippett, Xavien Howard, Bobby McCain, Jordan Lucas, Lafayette Pitts
Other Options: CBs Tre'Davious White & Sidney Jones, OLB T.J. Watt, G Forrest Lamp 
Originally Gareon Conley's place, Kevin King is a far less controversial, risky or allegedly rapey pick. Miami could go a few places here (see: Watt and Lamp) but, I think Kevin King is the safest, logical choice here considering weak coverage was the main culprit behind their elimination last season. Besides, Maxwell and Lippett were already two incredibly risky starters before the Steelers playoff game.

#23. New York Giants - ILB Zach Cunningham (Vanderbilt)

Vanderbilt Athletics
Current Depth (ILB): B.J. Goodson, Curtis Grant
Other Options: ILB Reuben Foster, OLB T.J. Watt, TE David Njoku, RB Dalvin Cook
Having just two middle linebackers on your roster with no idea how either of them look over a 16-game season is not a recipe for success. Hell, that doesn't work anywhere 99% of the time. Expect the Giants to fill the one hole on their otherwise awesome defense with either Reuben Foster (character concerns) or Vanderbilt's sleeper Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Zach Cunningham. There are other needs on offense but, they have an offensive minded head coach.

#24. Oakland Raiders - DT Chris Wormley (Michigan)

Brad Mills - USA TODAY Sports
Current Depth (DT): Justin Ellis, Darius Latham
Other Options: DT Malik McDowell, ILBs Reuben Foster & Zach Cunningham, CBs Kevin King, Tre'Davious White & Adoree' Jackson
Few units were as disappointing as the Raiders' defense last season and losing Stacy McGee only hurts matters up the middle. Chris Wormley might not be the big name that Malik McDowell is but, McDowell has proven to be inconsistent and has some character concerns as well. Wormley is a safe choice with nice pass-rushing ability for a defensive tackle. Any defensive draft choice is a draft choice well spent for the future franchise of Las Vegas.

#25. Houston Texans - QB DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame)

Michael Conroy/AP
Current Depth (QB): Tom Savage, Brandon Weeden
Other Options: QB Patrick Mahomes, OT Garett Bolles, CBs Kevin King & Tre'Davious White, Trade?
This is an obvious fit if Kizer is not already off the board. They were a quarterback away from a possible Super Bowl last year and now they need to replace A.J. Bouye but, not as badly as they still need that quarterback.

#26. Seattle Seahawks - OT Garett Bolles (Utah)

AP
Current Depth (OT): Luke Joeckel, George Fant, Robert Myers
Other Options: OTs Cam Robinson & Taylor Moton, CB Sidney Jones, S Obi Melifonwu, Trade?
Insert the sentiments previously expressed on Houston but, replace "QB" with "any offensive linemen" and "Kizer" with "Bolles". Only Seattle knows how healthy Earl Thomas is right now and if they take his hints at retirement seriously, don't be surprised when they take the explosive Obi Melifonwu.

#27. Kansas City Chiefs - ILB Reuben Foster (Alabama)

Cedric Mason - Touchdown Alabama Magazine
Current Depth (ILB): Derrick Johnson, Ramik Wilson, D.J. Alexander, Khaseem Greene, Justin March-Lillard, Terrance Smith
Other Options: DTs Chris Wormley & Malik McDowell, CBs Sidney Jones & Tre'Davious White
No, Reuben Foster might not fall this far due to his diluted urine sample but, Kansas City is a perfect fit for him with Derrick Johnson on his last legs and Andy Reid as a believer in second chances. Mock drafts are an imperfect science and you may have noticed a few noteworthy prospects still on the board and yet, Reuben Foster is just too talented to slide into the second round unless there's more to worry about beyond his rudeness to medical workers.

#28. Dallas Cowboys - CB Fabian Moreau (UCLA)

Mark J. Rebilas - USA TODAY Sports
Current Depth (CB): Orlando Scandrick, Anthony Brown, Nolan Carroll, Sammy Seamster, Leon McFadden, Jeremiah McKinnon, Duke Thomas
Other Options: CBs Tre'Davious White & Adoree' Jackson, DEs Tim Williams & Derek Barnett
With the deepest cornerback class in years shriveling up on a day-to-day basis, Fabian Moreau is completely believable as a first-round selection now. Dallas really needs help at two specific positions they have struggled to develop at the past five years, defensive end and cornerback. Considering Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall's new presence in the Cowboys' division, they need somebody to cover those two. Moreau and White seem the most NFL ready at the position even though either defensive end listed above would be a nice addition.

#29. Green Bay Packers - RB Dalvin Cook (Florida State)

Lynne Sladky - AP
Current Depth (RB): Ty Montgomery, Christine Michael, Don Jackson
Other Options: RB Christian McCaffrey, CBs Sidney Jones, Tre'Davious White & Quincy Wilson, Trade?
My "Against The Grain" pick has Green Bay waiting on the deep pool of talent at cornerback and instead, jumping on a workhorse running back because there is no way Ty Montgomery and his sickle-cell trait can make it through all 16 games and there's a reason teams keep cutting Christine Michael. McCaffrey is totally possible here but, Cook seems to have the higher ceiling based on his Elliott-like running style. In all likelihood, they'll just trade out of the first round and think this over a bit longer.

#30. Pittsburgh Steelers - DE Derek Barnett (Tennessee)

USA TODAY Sports
Current Depth (DE): Cameron Heyward, Stephon Tuitt, Tyson Alualu, L.T. Walton, Roy Philon, Johnny Maxey
Other Options: DE Tim Williams, TE David Njoku, S Obi Melifonwu, QB Patrick Mahomes
Derek Barnett was once thought of as a top-ten pick but, nobody talks about him that way today for some reason. I see Pittsburgh taking a chance on the former Volunteer because they need to develop a pass rush outside of geezer James Harrison. The Steelers are still one of the more puzzling teams this draft season and might even go with the eventual Ben Roethlisberger replacement here.

#31. Atlanta Falcons - DE Tim Williams (Alabama)

CBSSports.com
Current Depth (DE): Brooks Reed, Derrick Shelby, Adrian Clayborn, Jack Crawford, Martin Ifedi
Other Options: OLB Tyus Bowser, DE Takkarist McKinley, OT Garett Bolles, S Obi Melifonwu
Atlanta has nowhere to go but down from leading an evil empire 28-3 in a Super Bowl. The o-line was a big issue in the Super Bowl but, the defensive line is still not up to par and it should be much easier to find early-round talent on defense at pick #31 than on the offensive line.

#32. New Orleans Saints - TE David Njoku (Miami, FL)

Steve Mitchell - USA TODAY Sports
Current Depth (TE): Coby Fleener, Josh Hill, Michael Hoomanawanui, John Phillips, Garrett Griffin, Jake Stoneburner
Other Options: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, CBs Adoree' Jackson & Tre'Davious White, QBs Patrick Mahomes & Davis Webb, Trade?
Coby Fleener was supposed to replace Jimmy Graham? LOL. This team always reaches for offense even when they should go defense in the first four rounds, every year since 2011. Given the tremendous disappointment that the front office must have felt from Coby Fleener's extensive quest for mediocrity, they might overreact and grab the big-bodied David Njoku instead of continuing to add young defenders or trading the pick for a veteran or a higher pick.

So, enjoy the first night of the draft despite some of the uncomfortable, dark storylines surrounding it. No matter what, hopeless franchises will become hopeful with the reading of a card by a robot man named Roger. It's boring in theory and never boring in execution.

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