(Predictions In Parenthesis)
AL East
Boston Red Sox 93-69 (89-73, 2nd)
Baltimore Orioles 89-73 (74-88, 5th)
Toronto Blue Jays 89-73 (91-71, 1st)
New York Yankees 84-78 (84-78, 3rd)
Tampa Bay Rays 68-94 (77-85, 4th)
Never count the Baltimore Orioles out of the playoff hunt as long as they add a 30-something designated hitter whose career is declining. Whether it's Chris Davis, Steve Pearce, Pedro Alvarez or Mark Trumbo (all of whom were on the team this season), it won't matter how many games they trot out washed pitchers like Yovani Gallardo and Ublado Jimenez because they will rebuild the aging power hitter and they will make him better than ever before. Boston won this division based on the MVP numbers put up by David Ortiz and Mookie Betts while Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and even catcher Sandy Leon had their incredible highest of highs. Toronto's season went exactly as expected except for Jose Bautista missing most of the first three months to injury. If it weren't for Joey Bats' injury, they'd have finished in first. Even the Yankees were hard to eliminate after selling every quality veteran on their roster at the deadline. I certainly never saw Gary Sanchez turning into Barry Bonds for two months in order to reach the 84-78 W-L record I predicted but, I'll take the W and move on.
Fake Andy Todd Awards
Division MVP: Boston Outfielder Mookie Betts. Big Papi was great and all but, the designated hitter does not play defense. Mookie played defense and he played it very well. Josh Donaldson came close along with David Ortiz and even the powerful duo of Mark Trumbo and Manny Machado. Ultimately, Betts is the only one with a real chance at winning the actual American League MVP against that superhero with the halo in Hollywood (more on him later).
Division Rookie of the Year: This was not obvious at all through August and thankfully, Gary Sanchez hit 20 home runs in just 53 games, clinching this award. Sanchez should likely boot Brian McCann out of the Bronx as the five or six years of hype has been realized and has now turned into hope for the most successful franchise in all of sports. Luis Severino imploded and spent time in AAA and the bullpen before coming back up and at least earning some respect for consideration in the 2017 rotation. Yeah, I was horribly wrong about Severino.
Division Cy Young Award: I'll catch plenty of flak for this but... Aaron Sanchez. In Spring, the question surrounding Sanchez was whether or not he would pitch out the entire season in the rotation or if he would get demoted to the bullpen to "save his arm". Now, Toronto did send Sanchez down for about a 15 day stint in A-ball just to keep him from exceeding 200 regular season innings but, the starter-turned-reliever-turned-starter still started 30 games, pitched 192 innings, finished with a flashy win-loss record that Cy Young voters love (15-2) and was the most reliable pitcher down the stretch for a team that needed him in order to clinch home-field advantage in the AL's wildcard game. Everybody else would have chosen Rick Porcello or J.A. Happ for similar reasons except they are so win-dependent in their Cy Young cases that I'd rather just go with the player I could least imagine having no effect off of his current team. David Price sort of bounced back after the all-star break but, my preseason choice didn't even come close to winning this award.
The Sudden Collapse Award: Luis Severino would have gotten this award had he made more than 11 appearances prior to the 2016 season. Instead, Orioles free agent signing Yovani Gallardo predictably regressed. The unpredictability of his regression was just how awful his fall from grace was. Gallardo's ERA ballooned up a full two points (3.42 to 5.42) and Baltimore still has him signed through next year, keeping the awful Jimenez-Gallardo-Wade Miley trio alive.
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| Jim McIsaac/Getty Images North America Say hello to the new "Sanchize", New York. |
Cleveland Indians 94-67 (79-83, 4th)
Detroit Tigers 86-75 (81-81, 3rd)
Kansas City Royals 81-81 (88-74, 1st)
Chicago White Sox 78-84 (73-89, 5th)
Minnesota Twins 59-103 (85-77, 2nd)
There is not a division that I was more wrong on than the AL Central. I thought Cleveland's rotation was overrated, they won the division. I thought Brad Ausmus was going to be a disaster at manager for Detroit, he kept them in the playoff hunt until game #161. I thought "Kansas City has screwed me over the past few years so, I'll put them in first" and they all got hurt and ended at .500. I thought the Twins were finally going to see some players reach their potential and instead they all got hurt, declined and were the worst team in baseball. Nobody realized how much the Twins would miss Torii Hunter and how bad the entire pitching staff was going to be all year round. The one thing that was predictable however, was the off-field distractions of Kenny Williams being awful and Adam LaRoche's sudden last-minute retirement being too much to overcome for the White Sox.
Fake Awards
Division MVP: After 14 seasons in the majors, it has been one wildly successful ride for Miguel Cabrera and my preseason pick for this award delivered with numbers we had seen from him every year until his minor drop-off last season.
Division Rookie of the Year: It's Michael Fulmer of the Tigers and it's not even close. Sorry Byron Buxton but, you really need to deliver on your potential one of these years.
Division Cy Young Award: Actual Cy Young candidate (there are a dozen of them this year) Corey Kluber turns out to be another preseason prediction gone well for me. He really benefited being the only Cleveland pitcher to stay healthy all year long. Honorable mention: Justin Verlander.
The Sudden Collapse Award: Wade Davis was doing just fine until his arm got tired. The real "winner" this season was James Shields for being so bad that he returned to the division after a 1-year absence (the Padres gave up on him) and "Big Game James" turned into "No Game James" with a 6-19 record and a 5.85 ERA. Shields' June may have been the worst month for a pitcher this century.
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| Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports Fulmer is one of two realistic AL Rookie of the Year candidates. |
Texas Rangers 95-67 (95-67, 2nd)
Seattle Mariners 86-76 (83-79, 3rd)
Houston Astros 84-78 (98-64, 1st)
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 74-88 (78-84, 4th)
Oakland Athletics 69-93 (68-94, 5th)
Mike Trout continues his hopeless plight of single-handedly carrying this worthless Angels franchise to the postseason. So far, all Trout's career has been good for has been avoiding last place in the AL West and that's all it will be as long as the same people continue to be in charge of that organization. Houston blamed their first-half frustrations on Carlos Gomez, traded him to Texas and then blamed their second-half frustrations on him as well as he bounced back, helping Texas run away with the division while the Astros' pitching staff continued to under-perform. Seattle surprisingly stayed in the wildcard hunt until the final week. One can only imagine what this Seattle team would have done with Felix Hernandez in his prime.
Fake Awards
Division MVP: I picked Carlos Correa in the preseason and mentioned that one should never bet against Mike Trout. I was correct... one should never bet against the future hall of famer that is Mike Trout. The closest thing to Trout was either Nelson Cruz or Robinson Cano.
Division Rookie of the Year: Considering I traded A.J. Reed after three months in my dynasty fantasy league, he obviously has not lived up to the hype yet. Somebody with zero hype around him in the spring that turned into one of the league's most reliable closers was Edwin Diaz of the Mariners. He has a chance at joining the Kenley Jansen-tier of closers.
Division Cy Young Award: Dallas Keuchel was supposed to be the safe choice here and he blew it BIG TIME. The real winner of this award was Cole Hamels because unlike Felix Hernandez, Hamels' best years are still happening on the mound in 2016.
The Sudden Collapse Award: My eyes were focused on Hisashi Iwakuma and his potentially injured self not being signed by the Dodgers when they had the chance to do so. As it turns out, nothing was really wrong with Iwakuma statistically and Dallas Keuchel may have been a total fluke Cy Young winner in 2015.
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| Adam Glanzman, Getty Images Keuchel had a bumpy 2016 from start to finish and cost Houston multiple important games. |
Washington Nationals 95-67 (85-77, 2nd)
New York Mets 87-75 (100-62, 1st)
Miami Marlins 79-82 (82-80, 3rd)
Philadelphia Phillies 71-91 (67-95, 4th)
Atlanta Braves 68-93 (53-109, 5th)
I ALMOST had this division's order correct. The Mets completely blew up their rotation by having the arms of Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom all get sore at some point causing them to miss games. Terry Collins did not help with in-game management decisions either but, the story of the Mets' 2016 season will likely be all of the big names going down for significant amounts of time (including Yoenis Cespedes, Travis d'Arnaud and Lucas Duda as well). Luckily for them, they get one more chance to redeem the season by winning the wildcard game. The Marlins had an outside shot at the playoffs until Jose Fernandez died and nothing seemed to matter anymore. The Nationals won the division handily thanks to the emergence of a Wilson Ramos with functioning eyesight, the best version of Daniel Murphy and rookie phenom Trea Turner. I was shocked that Dusty Baker didn't ruin this team somehow but, there's a full month of baseball left so there's still a chance for some classic Dusty shenanigans. Philadelphia overachieved for the first two months and that was needed in order to hold off a surprisingly resilient team of nobodies in Atlanta.
Fake Awards
Division MVP: Catchers do not play everyday but, I don't think it can be overstated how much a team benefits from having somebody that can actually hit playing behind the plate. In Washington's case, the divisional race would have been a lot closer had Wilson Ramos not had lasik eye surgery this offseason so, I'm giving him the award over the equally impressive Daniel Murphy. Bryce Harper kept his on-base percentage high but, struggled to hit at all for a majority of the season. Hopefully, it is just a minor lingering injury that can be fixed in the offseason because baseball is more fun with an MVP-candidate Bryce Harper.
Division Rookie of the Year: In March, I liked Steven Matz to upset Trea Turner for this award and I was right for every minute that Turner had yet to be promoted. Once Turner was promoted, the 2016 fantasy baseball landscape changed for the better and a star was born. Turner wins this award in a landslide.
Division Cy Young Award: In what has been the strongest pitching division for a couple of years now, this race is still almost too close to call between Max Scherzer and Jose Fernandez. I'm giving the award to Fernandez because he pitched enough innings that if he were to have started the final two starts he was scheduled to start, we can reasonably predict that his stats would have been right on par with Scherzer's with more importance considering how badly the Marlins needed Fernandez in the stretch run.
The Sudden Collapse Award: My preseason choice of Ben Revere certainly fell off in a major way from his 2015 stat line. Bryce Harper had a still semi-productive collapse also. The most surprising fall was actually Matt Harvey and while he still has a rare few starts go well for him, his 4.86 ERA and baffling start was finally explained by suffering from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, an injury that may hamper the rest of his pitching career. Harvey's performance hurt the Mets' 2016 and his injury might hurt their future.
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| Brad Mills - USA TODAY Sports Scherzer might not win the Cy Young Award but, he'll always have that 20-strikeout game. |
Chicago Cubs 103-58-1 (102-60, 1st)
St. Louis Cardinals 86-76 (89-73, 3rd)
Pittsburgh Pirates 78-83-1 (94-68, 2nd)
Milwaukee Brewers 73-89 (70-92, 4th)
Cincinnati Reds 68-94 (69-93, 5th)
Flaw #1 in trying to predict regular season baseball is that there is just no way for a person to predict the results of all 162 games and therefor, without doing the math, there is no way to tell whether or not the total league won-loss totals add up and make any logical sense. Maybe if I had taken the time to actually add up all of the wins and losses, Pittsburgh and St. Louis would have been docked a few wins. Also, WHO KNEW THAT TIES WERE A THING? The Cubs lived up to the hype... for now despite the immediate loss of Kyle Schwarber to a torn ACL. The knuckle-dragging, mouth-breathing Cardinals finished one game out of the wildcard race because contrary to prior belief, it is okay for them to take a year or two off from the postseason. The Milwaukee Brewers rode the red hot bats of Jonathan Villar and Ryan Braun to a couple of extra wins while the Reds performed exactly as expected with the worst bullpen ever.
Fake Awards
Division MVP: 2016 Preseason pick Kris Bryant wins the award narrowly over teammate Anthony Rizzo.
Division Rookie of the Year: Prior to the season, I suggested that everyone "pick a Red, any Red". That was bad advice since Cardinals' shortstop Aledmys Diaz came from the same hometown as Jose Fernandez and made Cardinal fans forget Jhonny Peralta's existence quickly. Jose Peraza never stood a chance.
Division Cy Young Award: I had a hunch that Jake Arrieta would regress and he did but, Gerrit Cole also was much quieter than his past couple of successful seasons. The winner of the NL Central Cy Young was NL ERA champion Kyle Hendricks, whose career ERA is right there with Chris Sale and many other annual all-stars.
The Sudden Collapse Award: I was sort of right in assuming that Mark Melancon would lose the Pirates' closing job at some point since he was dealt to Washington. He was strictly dealt as a result of an expiring contract and not performance so, he never even came close to getting this award. Instead, Taylor Jungmann was so godawful in April that the Brewers' starting pitcher did not appear again until September when the rosters expanded. Honorable mention to the likeliest offseason trade candidate not named Braun or Puig, Andrew McCutchen.
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| Scott Cunningham/Getty Images North America Diaz was among a trio (Story & Seager) of NL shortstops to dominate the NL ROTY discussions. |
Los Angeles Dodgers 91-71 (92-70, 2nd)
San Francisco Giants 87-75 (96-66, 1st)
Colorado Rockies 75-87 (75-87, 4th)
Arizona Diamondbacks 69-93 (88-74, 3rd)
San Diego Padres 68-94 (71-91, 4th)
It can be pretty difficult to foresee more than one or two teams that are obviously destined for 90 losses in any given season and this division always has one team severely underwhelm to the point where they are a 90-loss team. Last year it was the Padres, this season the Diamondbacks acquired Shelby Miller, Jean Segura, Zack Greinke and a whole bunch of losses since Segura of all people was the lone player to live up to or, in his case, exceed the hype. Shoutout to the Rockies on matching my win-loss prediction. The Dodgers went from being great with Clayton Kershaw to shockingly unstoppable without Clayton Kershaw for the months of July and August. Their success led to the downfall of the Giants who owned the best record at the all-star break and one of the three worst records in baseball post-all-star break. Ultimately, San Fran is in the wildcard game versus the Mets and the winner gets to play the Cubs and three of the five best pitchers in the postseason (Lester, Arrieta and Hendricks).
Fake Awards
Division MVP: His team might have stunk but there is no denying that Nolan Arenado is the best all-around non-pitcher in this division. (Sorry, Paul Goldschmidt)
Division Rookie of the Year: The obvious safe choice turned out to be the right choice in Dodger shortstop Corey Seager. (Valiant effort prior to injury, Trevor Story)
Division Cy Young Award: I am so very conflicted on who should receive this award. Madison Bumgarner was great and all but, Clayton Kershaw was still Clayton fucking Kershaw for the four months he was fully healthy and for the time that he was out, Rich Hill was basically Clayton Kershaw: Old. Give me Kershaw over Bumgarner over Hill.
The Sudden Collapse Award: I hit the target in guessing Scott Kazmir might fall off but, the disappointment that was Shelby Miller was not matched, especially considering all that Arizona moronically gave up for him. (Sorry for bringing that up again to the recently departed GM Dave Stewart and manager Chip Hale)
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| Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports The award for Best Unscripted Drama of 2016 goes to... Madison Bumgarner! |
AL MVP - Mike Trout
NL MVP - Kris Bryant
AL Cy Young - Aaron Sanchez
NL Cy Young - Jose Fernandez
AL Rookie of the Year - Michael Fulmer
NL Rookie of the Year - Corey Seager
AL Manager of the Year - Jeff Banister
NL Manager of the Year - Joe Maddon
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| Sporting News In a year where there are no right or wrong answers for any of the awards, Mike Trout as AL MVP seems like the closest thing to an agreeable opinion. |
Wildcard Games
Blue Jays over Orioles
Giants over Mets
1st Round
Rangers over Blue Jays
Red Sox over Indians
Cubs over Giants (going against my preseason pick? what could possibly go wrong here?)
Dodgers over Nationals
2nd Round
Rangers over Red Sox
Cubs over Dodgers
World Series
Cubs over Rangers in 7.
| No fear. |
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