Thursday, September 19, 2019

WRBL Week 2, 2019

Wisconsin Rapids Bro League

Week 2
Our 5th official season of blaming Cole Walters for storming Area 51 to no avail.

Current Standings (with regular season won-loss streaks)
Steven Nett Division
Team ChowHounds (Darrin Aschebrook) 2-0 W2
Colieveland 96ers (Cole Walters) 1-1 L1
Walter Polish Z Slayers (Scott Aschebrook) 0-2 L2
Team Easy Breesy (Ryan Dougherty) 0-2 L4

Shooter McGavin Division
30 to 50 Feral Hogs (Andy Todd) 2-0 W3
SNEEN MACHINE (Tyler Sneen) 2-0 W2
Tax Paying Homeowner (Alec Swanson) 1-1 W1
Is It Pronounced Navy (Nick Zurawski) 0-2 L3

Week Two Final Scores
ANDY  137 - COLE  125
SNEEN  120 - NICK  114
ALEC  132 - SCOTT  113
DARRIN  105 - RYAN  89

Heroes of the Week: DF New England Patriots (35 points), QB Patrick Mahomes (31), QB Lamar Jackson (30)

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Jim Rogash/Getty Images
Hero of the Week: DF New England Patriots (Walter Polish Z Slayers)
Zero of the Week: Aaron Donald's rogue hand (injured Drew Brees' hand)

Waiver Wonders: WR Demarcus Robinson (35 points), TE Mark Andrews (25), QB Russell Wilson (24)

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Ben Margot
Waiver Wonder: WR Demarcus Robinson (7 catches, 172 yards, 2 touchdowns)
Upcoming Week 3 Match-ups & NFL Schedule (in CT)
Sneen vs. Darrin
Ryan vs. Nick
Cole vs. Scott
Alec vs. Andy
Thursday Night Football: Tennessee @ Jacksonville 7:20 PM
Sunday NOON: Cincinnati @ Buffalo
Miami @ Dallas
Denver @ Green Bay
Atlanta @ Indianapolis
Baltimore @ Kansas City
Oakland @ Minnesota
NY Jets @ New England
Detroit @ Oakland
3:05 PM: Carolina @ Arizona
NY Giants @ Tampa Bay
3:25 PM: Houston @ LA Chargers
New Orleans @ Seattle
Pittsburgh @ San Francisco
Sunday Night Football: LA Rams @ Cleveland 7:20 PM
Monday Night Football: Chicago @ Washington 7:15 PM

Bro...
It's Thursday, September 19th and every NFL team has played two games (Yes, even the Dolphins), do you know where your starting quarterback is? I only ask this because Ryan's Team Easy Breesy QB Drew Brees, NFL mainstay QBs Ben Roethlisberger and Nick Foles plus young Jets' project QB Sam Darnold are all out for significant lengths of time and we're not even a month into the new season. If that weren't bad enough, we've seen Patrick Mahomes (who is not Christian McCaffrey) limp in week one, Carson Wentz in the Eagles' medical tent during week two and Alec's QB Cam Newton is now week-to-week with a case of "He's probably eternally broken". It's uncharted territory we're living in and with the changing of the guard at quarterback, who knows what the leaderboards will look like at the end of the season. Lamar Jackson, Mahomes, Dak Prescott, DeShaun Watson and even Gardner Minshew are off to great starts with Daniel Jones, Mason Rudolph and Luke Falk set to make their first career starts this week to mixed expectations. Meanwhile, I'm just sitting here, drinking my kale smoothie, sacrificing lambs to the volcano gods so that Tom Brady can win another championship... for me (our second).

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Not mentioned in the first paragraph but photoed here, Kyler Murray carrying the Cardinals to a not league-worst record.
Outside of the injuries, believe it or not, there were some quality NFL games in September! Sure, every single team still has some kinks to work out but there are some units that look especially solid that will establish themselves over the season or falter. Green Bay's defense went from 0 to 100 real quick and just in time with Aaron Rodgers looking more like his best days are behind him as he adjusts to Matt LaFleur and Nathaniel Hackett's new offense. There might just be four top ten defenses in the NFC North by the way and the only things that could prevent that division from having three playoff teams are the Eagles/Cowboys race, the sneaky Seahawks and their own inconsistent quarterbacks (except for Trubisky, who might just be really bad). Another surprisingly fit unit is Baltimore's offense, which looks like the best in the team's history though this small sample size of two games against the shitty Dolphins defense and the shitty Cardinals defense. Even with Lamar Jackson getting all the time in the world to throw and follow linemen to 5.0+ yards per carry, he's still shown accuracy that not even the most diehard "HE'S NOT A RUNNING BACK" truthers thought would translate so well, so quickly to the pros. The Ravens' defense is also very much in a transitional period after losing a ton of proven talent like Eric Weddle, C.J. Mosley and Terrell Suggs and replacing them with slightly younger, also-proven players like Earl Thomas, Pernell McPhee and fourth-year linebacker Patrick Onwuasor. With the Bengals Bengal'ing their way to another 6-10 or lower finish, the Browns looking nowhere near ready for primetime (Seriously, is Baker Mayfield mediocre at best right now?) and the Steelers already losing their minds and players simultaneously (0-2, James Conner minor injury, Roethlisberger, Minkah Fitzpatrick trade?, already got rid of Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown for nothing of note YET), the Ravens seem like a team to bet on achieving their over of 8.5 wins. 

Not achieving the over on their own Vegas odds? Nick Zurawski (Again, we're projecting A TON here). This week's crushing defeat (in a year full of crushing defeats for a known Miami sports fan) came with a real glimmer of hope on Monday Night Football as Odell Beckham Jr. made his way into the three-way tie for 2nd in league points among receivers with an 89-yard touchdown through the Jets' open-field strategy defense. Unfortunately due to game flow, that was it for the Browns' short-lived relationship with successful downfield passing and Is It Pronounced Navy is now asking "Is It Pronounced Victory?" with a six-point loss to a 2-0 SNEEN MACHINE team that might get more points once he realizes Damien Williams isn't happening. It did not help Nick's cause that none of Patrick Mahomes (who is still not Christian McCaffrey) FOUR second-quarter touchdowns landed in the hands of Sammy Watkins but instead, Demarcus Robinson twice, Travis Kelce (yay me!) once and rookie MeCole Hardman once. Speaking of MeCole Hardman... Those were the exact first words Cole Walters spoke after falling on the ice in Darrin's driveway after he won the championship.



In other WRBL games, I handed Cole his first loss of the season and promptly destroyed all evidence that I chea... I mean, destroyed all evidence that Cole was winning up until the fourth quarter of the three o'clock games. Lowkey, the only thing more shocking than Vegas-favorite Nick disappointing thus far is Scott also starting 0-2 in defense of his (tainted?) title. This week, Scott's Walter Polish Z Slayers forgot to pay their rent to the Tax Paying Homeowner himself, Alec Swanson and promptly lost in a debacle that could have been saved by starting Emmanuel Sanders and his miraculously healed Achilles over one of Jarvis Landry or Christian McCaffrey (who is not Patrick Mahomes). Meanwhile, the future is now for a surprisingly stacked Swanson team that has early breakthrough candidates for most improved player (an award that only exists in the NBA for some reason) at receiver in Marquise "Hollywood" Brown, DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, Kenny Golladay and D.J. Moore AND THOSE WERE ALL OF HIS BACKUP OPTIONS THIS WEEK. If he can land a quarterback more consistent than Cam Newton no longer is all of a sudden, this might be the first time I've ever taken Alec serious as anything other than a grown adult with a family and home. Forget the long-term implications of Drew Brees' thumb injury, this very week was essentially scratched off as a loss immediately once Brees hit the sideline for Team Easy Breesy. It's bad enough that Darrin is probably going to sabotage Ryan's team all year while the league's youngest defends our country but, even in a week where Team ChowHounds seemed willing to hand him a pity win, Team Easy Breesy just couldn't make it easy in their second consecutive sub-triple-digit scoring performance.

Week 3 brings the annual Thursday Night Football classic of Titans v. Jaguars, a game once dominated by the likes of Sen'Derrick Marks and Charlie Whitehurst so, get your remote ready in case one team decides to come out with their color rush jerseys on for old time's sake. Sunday has an early-season "Are they for real?" game with Lamar Jackson taking on the terrible Chiefs defense with one team leaving 3-0. The late afternoon slate is much juicier with five games than three as Kyler Murray MIGHT (Cam is questionable) take on Kyle Allen, who he lost the starting job to at Texas A&M in 2015 before both transferred. Also, the debuts of Daniel Jones, Mason Rudolph and whatever Sean Payton plans on doing with Taysom Hill (Payton has already hinted at Hill taking over WRBL Recap duties for a paragraph next week). The Sunday nighter has America's new team in Cleveland taking on the LA Rams, no pressure or anything. Most fantasy matchups should be decided on Sunday but, there is still the Bears defense (playing Washington) trying to save Nick from an 0-3 start against 0-2 Ryan and his lone Bear, Allen Robinson. I will be playing Alec in a battle that sees the NFL's top fantasy scoring RB (Austin Ekeler) through two weeks versus the eventual leading scorer at RB (Saquon Barkley, fantasy football's last "Sure thing" at his position). Along with our two 0-2's, two of the 2-0's will face off this week with Sneen taking on an absolutely loaded (but not in the alcoholic sense of that phrase) ChowHounds team now that Antonio Brown is temporarily available. Lastly, Scott takes on Cole in a thriller between two teams that have already beaten me this season. Just kidding, It's False. No Way. Not This Time. We Created It. Not This Time. No. Not This Time. It's Totally Made Up. Pure Fiction. It's Fiction. It's Fiction. We Made It Up. We Made This One Up. It's A Made Up Tale. It's A Total Fabrication. It Never Happened. It Never Happened. This One Was Invented By A Writer. Not This Time. It Never Happened. It's False. It Never Happened. It's A Fake. It's Fiction. It's An Urban Legend That Never Happened. No Way. We Got You. Not A Chance. Not This Time. It Never Happened. It Never Happened. We Made This One Up. It's Fiction. We Made Up This One. We Made It Up. Not This Time. Wrong. Not This Time. Not This Time. You're Wrong. Not This Time, It Never Happened.

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Scott's season could turn around on a dime if two-time WRBL champions Mike Evans (above) and Jarvis Landry start grabbing more passes.

Scoring Leaders
QB
Patrick Mahomes 58 (Cole)
DeShaun Watson 42 (Darrin)
Carson Wentz 41 (Scott)
Lamar Jackson 30 (Nick)
Aaron Rodgers 26 (Sneen)
Tom Brady 24 (Andy)
Drew Brees 19 (Ryan)
Matt Ryan 18 (Nick)
Cam Newton 16 (Alec)
Russell Wilson 15 (Andy)

RB
Dalvin Cook 52 (Sneen)
Christian McCaffrey 48 (Scott)
Derrick Henry 45 (Darrin)
Le'Veon Bell 43 (Darrin)
Saquon Barkley 38 (Alec)
David Johnson 33 (Nick)
Marlon Mack 33 (Alec)
Ezekiel Elliott 32 (Ryan)
Josh Jacobs 32 (Nick)
Mark Ingram 31 (Andy)
Nick Chubb 30 (Scott)
Alvin Kamara 29 (Darrin)
Todd Gurley 25 (Ryan)
Damien Williams 24 (Sneen)
James Conner 23 (Sneen)
Austin Ekeler 22 (Andy)
Devonta Freeman 12 (Scott)
Leonard Fournette 10 (Nick)
Chris Thompson 9 (Cole)
Joe Mixon 8 (Cole)
Kerryon Johnson 7 (Andy)
Kenyan Drake 4 (Cole)

WR
Keenan Allen 43 (Alec)
Odell Beckham Jr. 42 (Nick)
T.Y. Hilton 42 (Cole)
Julio Jones 42 (Alec)
DeAndre Hopkins 40 (Nick)
Chris Godwin 40 (Cole)
Michael Thomas 40 (Andy)
Tyrell Williams 37 (Cole)
Amari Cooper 36 (Darrin)
JuJu Smith-Schuster 26 (Andy)
Adam Thielen 25 (Andy)
Davante Adams 24 (Sneen)
Julian Edelman 24 (Sneen)
Brandin Cooks 21 (Ryan)
Emmanuel Sanders 19 (Scott)
Marvin Jones Jr. 18 (Ryan)
Antonio Brown 15 (Darrin)
Stefon Diggs 14 (Alec)
Mike Evans 14 (Scott)
Sterling Shepard 10 (Darrin)
Sammy Watkins 10 (Nick)
Allen Robinson 8 (Ryan)
Jarvis Landry 6 (Scott)
Tyreek Hill 3 (Ryan)

TE
Evan Engram 38 (Darrin)
Travis Kelce 34 (Andy)
Vance McDonald 28 (Alec)
Zach Ertz 27 (Sneen)
George Kittle 21 (Cole)
David Njoku 12 (Nick)
Hunter Henry 10 (Ryan)
Darren Waller 10 (Nick)
Jared Cook 9 (Scott)
Delanie Walker 7 (Ryan)

PK
Wil Lutz 26 (Andy)
Justin Tucker 24 (Alec)
Greg Zuerlein 23 (Ryan)
Stephen Gostkowski 22 (Darrin)
Harrison Butker 21 (Nick)
Robbie Gould 21 (Cole)
Jake Elliott 13 (Sneen)
Ka'imi Fairbairn 11 (Scott)

DF
New England Patriots 35 (Scott)
Baltimore Ravens 18 (Andy)
Los Angeles Rams 18 (Sneen)
Buffalo Bills 16 (Darrin)
Chicago Bears 14 (Nick)
Los Angeles Chargers 8 (Ryan)
New Orleans Saints 8 (Alec)
Carolina Panthers 7 (Cole)
Arizona Cardinals 2 (Cole)
Jacksonville Jaguars -8 (Scott)

Hypothetical Standings
30 to 50 Feral Hogs 2-0
Colieveland 96ers 2-0
Team ChowHounds 1-1
Is It Pronounced Navy 1-1
Tax Paying Homeowner 1-1
SNEEN MACHINE 1-1
Walter Polish Z Slayers 0-2
Team Easy Breesy 0-2

Thursday, September 12, 2019

WRBL Week One, 2019 (Our 5th Official Season!)

Wisconsin Rapids Bro League

Week 1
Our 5th official season of blaming Cole Walters for the Patriots signing Antonio Brown.

Current Standings (with regular season won-loss streaks)
Steven Nett Division
Team ChowHounds (Darrin Aschebrook) 1-0 W1
Colieveland 96ers (Cole Walters) 1-0 W2
Walter Polish Z Slayers (Scott Aschebrook) 0-1 L1
Team Easy Breesy (Ryan Dougherty) 0-1 L3

Shooter McGavin Division
30 to 50 Feral Hogs (Andy Todd) 1-0 W2
SNEEN MACHINE (Tyler Sneen) 1-0 W1
Is Ir Pronounced Navy (Nick Zurawski) 0-1 L2
Tax Paying Homeowner (Alec Swanson) 0-1 L1

Week One Final Scores
DARRIN  191 - NICK  161
COLE  124 - ALEC  114
ANDY  131 - SCOTT  104
SNEEN  111 - RYAN  85

Heroes of the Week: RB Christian McCaffrey (42 points), WR DeAndre Hopkins (31), QB DeShaun Watson (30)


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USA TODAY Sports
Hero of the Week: QB DeShaun Watson (Team ChowHounds)
Zeros of the Week: DF Jacksonville Jaguars (-8 points)

Waiver Wonders: WR John Ross (34 points), WR Marquise Brown (30), DF San Francisco 49ers (28)

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The Athletic
Waiver Wonder: WR John Ross III (7 catches, 158 yards, 2 touchdowns)
Upcoming Week 2 Match-ups & NFL Schedule (in CT)
Cole vs. Andy
Sneen vs. Nick
Darrin vs. Ryan
Scott vs. Alec
Thursday Night Football: Tampa Bay @ Carolina 7:20 PM
Sunday NOON: Arizona @ Baltimore
Buffalo @ NY Giants
Dallas @ Washington
Indianapolis @ Tennessee
Jacksonville @ Houston
LA Chargers @ Lions
Minnesota @ Green Bay
New England @ Miami
San Francisco @ Cincinnati 
Seattle @ Pittsburgh
3:05 PM: Kansas City @ Oakland
3:25 PM: Chicago @ Denver
New Orleans @ LA Rams
Sunday Night Football: Philadelphia @ Atlanta 7:20 PM
Monday Night Football: Cleveland @ NY Jets 7:15 PM

Bro...
2019, the Wisconsin Rapids Bro League is in it's fifth official season of action. We've become a well-oiled machine and that deserves a pat on the back. There still has not been a repeat champion, the weekly blog posts are a nice added touch to the mystique of our hobby and Darrin once blew a 96-point lead in the Shelby Bowl so, you know the memes are strong. We're doing good but, you know what greatness is? Father Todd entering his FORTIETH season of fantasy football fun with his high school buddies from Pittsville in their touchdown-only league. You see kids, back in 1980 the league would have to wait until the Marshfield News Herald dropped all the info on football scores in their Tuesday edition and the league owners would tabulate their scores from there. Six of the eight original owners remain and they've had the same lineup since 1984. Not only has the PFL essentially been the same since 1984 but, it has become routine that the league meets for their annual draft and maybe once every five years one of the eight owners doesn't make for a live, offline draft (in which case, they stay on the phone line and call their picks in).

This year's Labor Day Weekend draft took place in a garage in the middle of nowhere (as is tradition) saw Raiders' RB Josh Jacobs go first overall, the devouring of prime rib, our first ever giant draft board with sticker-ed names and a postgame bonfire (as is also tradition) with two old desktop monitors, an old TV, a bench that had been used around the bonfire location for over a decade, a bag of clothes that were sitting in the Todd family garage for over five years and an old white board sacrificed to our "ceremonial burn" (Declaring it a ceremonial burn makes it legal, boys). Overall, even though there weren't stories about "Pig dice in Junction City" or "The Amish are purposely having their horses shit in front of my driveway", it was still one of the biggest and best draft parties yet. When you reach a milestone year like #40, it's important to go all out and with our Todd's Tornados going back-to-back in seasons 38 & 39, it was important that I followed up our custom-made championship hats with the first ever PFL Championship ring ceremony. That's right... I bought a Fantasy Champion ring along with our draft board. Thank you to all of our 10 keepers plus a host of others that have contributed to this new and exciting journey of victory after going 13 trophy-less finishes. 

Here's the roster headed into season #40 for Todd's Tornados...

QB - Russell Wilson (3rd rounder, 2012), Patrick Mahomes (3rd rounder, 2017), Daniel Jones (3rd rounder, 2019), Matthew Stafford (6th rounder, 2019)
RB - Todd Gurley (1st rounder, 2015), Ezekiel Elliott (#2 overall pick, 2016), Derrick Henry )#3 overall pick, 2016), Chris Carson (5th rounder, 2018), James White (our 1st rounder this season after being a cut from the '18 final roster), Jordan Howard (5th rounder + another re-draft)
WR - Michael Thomas (6th rounder, 2016), Keenan Allen (3rd rounder, 2017), Tyler Lockett (2nd rounder, 2018), Calvin Ridley (5th rounder, 2018), T.Y. Hilton (2nd rounder, 2019 + another re-draft), Larry Fitzgerald (Somehow Mr. Irrelevant this year)
TE - Austin Hooper (7th rounder, 2019), Vance McDonald (9th rounder, 2019)
PK - Wil Lutz (4th rounder, 2019 + 3rd year in a row we've drafted him), Jason Myers (8th rounder, 2019)
DF - Jacksonville Jaguars (10th rounder, 2019)

In leagues y'all actually care about news... The Bro League draft was somehow put together at the last minute by commissioner Nick Zurawski, a miracle worker at the very least. The final detail of last season's controversial Patrick Mahomes deal came to fruition as I ended up with the first overall pick (via random selection) and took Saints' WR Michael Thomas after the keepers were selected by everyone besides me (A self-imposed side-effect of said controversial deal). With three picks in the first two rounds, I was FINALLY (for the first time ever) able to lock down three probable Pro Bowl wideouts in Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Adam Thielen in addition to fully-recovered (we hope) Cooper Kupp. Back to Nick Zurawski though, the resounding belief around the league is that it is time for the perennial playoff participant to finally engrave his name on The Shelby with his first official championship victory as he is one of three remaining owners to not have experienced the fruits of winning (Alec and Darrin being the other two). While Darrin has hosted multiple league events and is mostly responsible for the creation of the league trophy (allegedly), ultimately Rapmaster Nicky Z is the one that puts this all together every year and bullies us into drafting at times inconvenient to our daily lives (Pretty sure Cole was just checking his phone every two minutes at work this year). Meanwhile, 2017 Champion Ryan Dougherty's Team Easy Breesy was mostly drafted by Darrin Aschebrook because nothing beats a father's intuition... and by nothing, I mean a fantasy football team owned by Tyler Sneen (Boom, still got it!).

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When you realize you have Austin Ekeler, Devin Singletary, Cooper Kupp and James White on your deepest bench yet.
In the most highly anticipated week one in years for the NFL and fantasy football alike, Darrin Aschebrook came out as top scorer with an insane 191 points without second-round pick WR Antonio Brown active (more on him once it feels safe to talk about anything football or otherwise with the newest Patriot receiver) and as is par for the course of fantasy football, Nick Zurawski scored second-most points for the week and lost to the #1 scorer ("Bring on the hypothetical win!" stated a downtrodden team owner) with both Lamar Jackson and Sammy Watkins (combined for EIGHT touchdowns) sitting on Is It Pronounced Navy's bench. It could be worse for our resident legal expert... he could always be a Dolphins fan (Take a long luau for Tagaviloa). In the Andy-Scott match, Scott's team took the week to recover from nine months of doing absolutely nothing to do absolutely nothing outside of Run CMC (AKA: Not Patrick Mahomes, AKA: The Greatest White Running Back since O.J. Simpson, AKA: Christian McCaffrey). The Panthers Running Back made his case early for back-to-back league MVP honors and 42 points as the rest of the Walter Polish Z Slayers put up 62 in a 27-point loss to my team led by a catch-less 22-point game from Mark Ingram. As previously hinted at, Ryan's team made a loud THUD! with just 85 points, giving hypothetical loser SNEEN MACHINE a fairly easy victory (though Tyler's 111 is far from a no-show) and in our closest game, Tyrell Williams was the beneficiary of the departure of Antonio Brown as Tyrell's business boomed it's way to 22-points in a clutch performance late Monday night, giving Cole a 10-point victory over the Tax Paying Homeowner, who relied on the Saints defense that once again failed to come through in the clutch for the third year in a row despite winning their reality game (that was all thanks to Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara).


Image result for stefon diggs saints
Craig Lassig/European Pressphoto Agency
Pictured: Now only the second least-clutch moment from the Saints defense in the 2010s.

What does Week 2 bring? Well, the Panthers and Bucs play on Thursday Night so, we'll know what Scott's odds look like versus Alec as Christian McCaffrey (who is still not Patrick Mahomes) tries to carry one 0-1 fantasy team over another. 30 to 50 Feral Hogs take on the Colieveland 96ers in a winner takes home a Kwik Trip Rewards Card rivalry game. Darrin gets to tank Ryan's team because he raised the son that is defending his right to keep an injured Tyreek Hill in the lineup. It seems fitting that not only does Hill have a cast to match his son's but, Darrin could use the Chiefs' wideout to ABUSE his powers over HIS SON's team (The Roast of Alec Baldwin is this week so, I'm feeling a little bolder in my material). The Falcons look to rebound off a miserable showing in Minnesota with a home game against the Eagles and Tyler Sneen's QB Carson Wentz on Sunday Night. Speaking of Tyler Sneen, his machine takes on Nick as it all might come down to Browns' WR Odell Beckham Jr. on Monday Night Football against the Jets. It should be a fun game with two very disappointing week one teams looking to pull out the UNO reverse card on their season's fortunes. Also digging through his deck of cards, maybe Nick can still win it all (No pressure) because that squad he built looks DEEP one game into the season and still, he wants a ring like Carmellllooo. Anything can happen on any given Sunday, especially on Monday Night! Now, knock on wood if you're with me.

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USA TODAY Sports
[Redacted]
Scoring Leaders
QB
DeShaun Watson 30 (Darrin)
Patrick Mahomes 27 (Cole)
Carson Wentz 24 (Scott)
Drew Brees 20 (Ryan)
Matt Ryan 18 (Nick)
Russell Wilson 15 (Andy)
Aaron Rodgers 12 (Sneen)
Cam Newton 5 (Alec)

RB
Christian McCaffrey 42 (Scott)
Derrick Henry 28 (Darrin)
Dalvin Cook 25 (Sneen)
David Johnson 25 (Nick)
Marlon Mack 25 (Alec)
Le'Veon Bell 23 (Darrin)
Josh Jacobs 23 (Nick)
Alvin Kamara 23 (Darrin)
Mark Ingram 22 (Andy)
Saquon Barkley 17 (Alec)
Damien Williams 17 (Sneen)
Ezekiel Elliott 13 (Ryan)
Nick Chubb 11 (Scott)
James Conner 10 (Sneen)
Leonard Fournette 10 (Nick)
Todd Gurley 10 (Ryan)
Kerryon Johnson 7 (Andy)
Kenyan Drake 4 (Cole)
Devonta Freeman 3 (Scott)
Joe Mixon 3 (Cole)

WR
DeAndre Hopkins 31 (Nick)
T.Y. Hilton 28 (Cole)
Keenan Allen 26 (Alec)
Amari Cooper 22 (Darrin)
Michael Thomas 22 (Andy)
Tyrell Williams 22 (Cole)
Emmanuel Sanders 19 (Scott)
Julian Edelman 15 (Sneen)
Julio Jones 15 (Alec)
Odell Beckham Jr. 14 (Nick)
Chris Godwin 14 (Cole)
JuJu Smith-Schuster 13 (Andy)
Adam Thielen 13 (Andy)
Sterling Shepard 10 (Darrin)
Marvin Jones Jr. 9 (Ryan)
Davante Adams 7 (Sneen)
Brandin Cooks 5 (Ryan)
Stefon Diggs 5 (Alec)
Mike Evans 4 (Scott)
Tyreek Hill 3 (Ryan)

TE
Evan Engram 28 (Darrin)
George Kittle 13 (Cole)
David Njoku 12 (Nick)
Travis Kelce 11 (Andy)
Zach Ertz 10 (Sneen)
Hunter Henry 10 (Ryan)
Vance McDonald 6 (Alec)
Jared Cook 5 (Scott)

PK
Harrison Butker 17 (Nick)
Stephen Gostkowski 16 (Darrin)
Wil Lutz 14 (Andy)
Greg Zuerlein 14 (Ryan)
Robbie Gould 11 (Cole)
Justin Tucker 11 (Alec)
Jake Elliott 6 (Sneen)
Ka'imi Fairbairn 4 (Scott)

DF
Baltimore Ravens 14 (Andy)
Buffalo Bills 11 (Darrin)
Chicago Bears 10 (Nick)
Los Angeles Rams 9 (Sneen)
New Orleans Saints 4 (Alec)
Arizona Cardinals 2 (Cole)
Los Angeles Chargers 1 (Ryan)
Jacksonville Jaguars -8 (Scott)

Hypothetical Standings(Based on Top 4 Weekly Scorers instead of Head-to-Head Matchups)
Team ChowHounds 1-0
Is It Pronounced Navy 1-0
30 to 50 Feral Hogs 1-0
Colieveland 96ers 1-0
Tax Paying Homeowner 0-1
SNEEN MACHINE 0-1
Walter Polish Z Slayers 0-1
Team Easy Breesy 0-1

Thursday, September 5, 2019

Andy Todd's 2019 NFL Season Preview

Did anybody else forget that the Rams played the Patriots in one of the worst Super Bowls ever seven months ago? Despite all the love and affection America and I now have for the Kansas City Chiefs, the defending champions are still the New England Patriots.... again. Despite the weird sense that Philadelphia is still trying to defend their relatively recent Super Bowl up with another W in the big game, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady sit at the top of the mountain... again. They've done this so many times to such a wide variety of teams that it's worth wondering just what the hell it will take to stop the team with the oldest quarterback and longest-tenured head coach? Does losing the greatest tight end of ALL-TIME (Let's start the season off with a warm take) even matter? How about losing the highest-paid defender in this year's free agency? (DE Trey Flowers) As long as Belichick is in charge, the answer appears to be no but at some point, Tom Brady will get that noodle arm because every quarterback does. Remember Peyton Manning's final season? Remember Brett Favre's final season? I had both of them in fantasy so, of course I remember (the mental scars may never heal). When father time catches up with Brady, will Belichick pull the plug early like he has everyone else? (Think of a Week 10 benching for Jarrett Stidham in this alternate reality I have sculpted) Is that even possible?

This is all just a long-winded way of telling people to NOT bet on the Patriots' Super Bowl odds (try something a little flashy yet reasonable like Minnesota or Pittsburgh or even the Titans if the Marcus Mariota contract year brings him super powers). The league might not be as wide open as the NBA is right now but beyond New England, who is the clear favorite? Without Gronk and Trey Flowers and tackle Trent Brown, aren't the Patriots just one of at least 8 teams with really good quarterbacks that could just ride their passing games to a playoff run? Essentially, yes. As always, injuries will come into play more than they do in any of the other big American sports and the deepest team (The Eagles had a bunch of major injuries two years ago and survived off of a stacked veteran depth chart) has solid odds at persevering. Until those bodies end up on the trainers' tables, we're just left picking names out of a hat and hoping that the teams' fortunes aren't seriously affected by one key lineman taking an awkward step.

Here are my random picks (but really, I put some time and thought into this and picked every game so, at least please respect the process) for the NFL season ahead...

AFC East
New England Patriots 12-4
Buffalo Bills 8-8
New York Jets 8-8
Miami Dolphins 3-13

Both Buffalo and New York should be on an upward trajectory with the improvements made by their two second-year quarterbacks. They will both be in the wildcard hunt with the Jets' secondary and Bills' overall lack of talent keeping them close but still on the outside looking in. Miami's organization is tanking despite whatever miracles Ryan Fitzpatrick, Charles Harris and Raekwon McMillan can pull off on the field (and any wins should be considered miracles for the Dolphins in 2019). The loss of TE Rob Gronkowski would signal the end of an era for any other franchise but, these are the New England fucking Patriots we're talking about and with a potential 16-game schedule out of veteran receivers Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon and Demaryius Thomas, they might just give 42-year old Tom Brady one last run at his 4th MVP award. Not much to say about this division, just insert anything said since 2012 and it's probably fitting. Lock it in, the Pats are playoff bound.

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
Baltimore Ravens 10-6
Cleveland Browns 9-7
Cincinnati Bengals 3-13

When Father Todd and I went through a few prop bets and announced our over/under picks in a now annual tradition, his bet for first coach fired was Bengals' rookie head coach Zac Taylor. I was shocked. What does this 59-year old mustachioed Midwesterner know that Cincinnati's front office doesn't heading into 2019? (Ignore the fact that he just stated "Cincinnati's head coach" with zero knowledge of Taylor's background or name and instead, focus on how widely known it is that this team's season is destined for failure). I agree with all of the hype for this division surrounding the Browns and they SHOULD be a playoff team based on the talent of their starting lineup but, these are still the Cleveland Browns and something has to go wrong. Maybe Freddie Kitchens struggles to adjust to life as a head coach, maybe the holes in the o-line are exposed or maybe defenses catch on to Baker Mayfield's habits as he hits a sophomore speed bump. Baltimore rebuilt everything besides their solid offensive line and that leaves a wide range that this team, with as unproven a commodity as Lamar Jackson leading the way, could finish with a ceiling of 13-3 or a floor of 4-12. I see them sneaking in as a wildcard thanks to Jackson's playmaking abilities coming in clutch and John Harbaugh's coaching being an advantage over similar wildcard candidates. Typically, losing two of the best offensive skill position players in the NFL would be a tragic turn of events for a franchise but, these are the Pittsburgh Steelers and they just constantly reload talent since the 1970s. They already won games without Le'Veon Bell last season (just barely missing the playoffs) and the loss of Antonio Brown just spreads the ball around more to improving receiver James Washington, veteran addition Donte' Moncrief and tight end Vance McDonald. Any wins lost on offense should be picked up by the young and improving defense and the fact that they don't have to face a first-place schedule.

Image result for t.j. watt steelers 2019
Steph Chambers/Post-Gazette
Defense is back in style in Pittsburgh with a young linebacker trio (T.J. Watt [above], Bud Dupree, rookie Devin Bush) revitalizing a unit that has been inconsistent the past five years.

AFC South
Houston Texans 9-7
Jacksonville Jaguars 8-8
Indianapolis Colts 7-9
Tennessee Titans 5-11

One of the more wide open divisions, the AFC South's dip in quality over the past two weeks has been surprising to say the least. The Colts went from Super Bowl contenders to who the hell knows with Jacoby Brissett taking over for a retired Andrew Luck under center. The rest of the team remains a truly great, on-the-rise squad but, the aspirations have been lowered for the immediate future. The Texans gave up some serious draft capitol (two firsts and a second) along with DE Jadeveon Clowney for a left tackle (Laremy Tunsil) to give Deshaun Watson some needed relief from opposing pass rushers, a more-experienced Will Fuller (Kenny Stills) and a third rounder. I don't think the B+ lineman and C+ receiver make up for the loss of an all-pro defender but, J.J. Watt remains and as long as he's in a Texans' uniform, they'll hover around .500 and have an advantage over similarly-talented teams. Jacksonville is a similarly-talented team with some noticeable weaknesses now that linebacker Telvin Smith is taking a season off and Nick Foles is left playing with some inexperienced receivers. The defense of two years ago mostly remains but, there's going to be some leftover bad vibes that keep them from seeing their full potential. The Titans could be 11-5 or 5-11 and I see things going poorly with Mike Vrabel not knowing who to start at quarterback. I've been on Marcus Mariota Island and Ryan Tannehill Island for both of their careers but, I just don't think either has been healthy long enough to build on any promise their talent brings to the table. The Tennessee defense is weaker along the front seven in experience especially but, should be fine with a very underrated secondary. Ultimately, the schedule will be too tough and my faith in them is shakier than it has been in a while.

AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7
Denver Broncos 9-7
Los Angeles Chargers 8-8
Oakland Raiders 6-10

The regression to the mean is here for Kansas City. No, their offense won't lose much of a step (though the running back situation will prove tough to fix post-Kareem Hunt) but the rest of the league is better (at least the Chiefs' opponents and the AFC West are) than they were and Kansas City has nowhere to go but down except for their completely rebuilt and unpredictable defense. Denver revives Joe Flacco's career for a second stint at stardom with a still-good defense and improving young offensive weapons. Melvin Gordon's holdout puts a bit more pressure on Philip Rivers and with how quietly inconsistent the quarterback's been over sixteen seasons, I expect a regression on his part as well. Losing Derwin James for the season isn't helping LA's case either in their last season playing in a soccer stadium. All three of those teams are entering the season pretty confident and looking like normal NFL teams.... and then there's the Raiders. Oakland is quietly in the playoff hunt too with the Antonio Brown, Trent Brown and LaMarcus Joyner additions but, the "distraction" narrative that every team uses to excuse themselves from signing Colin Kaepernick or Dez Bryant actually applies in Oakland. Jon Gruden is not long for this land of oak and despite the ingredients being there for a wildcard contender, I just don't see the team overcoming an overmatched and outdated coaching staff mixed with a prove it or beat it season for Derek Carr, whatever the hell Antonio Brown is and true headcases constantly facing suspension like Richie Incognito and Vontaze Burfict. At least they claimed DeShone Kizer at the last minute... that will solve everything.

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USA TODAY Sports
OLB Bradley Chubb (above) will blossom into an all-pro with the ability to lead the league in sacks annually in year #2 alongside perennial all-pro Von Miller.

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 12-4
Philadelphia Eagles 12-4
New York Giants 5-11
Washington 3-13

Much like last season's AFC East, this division has two teams just waiting to throw their rookies into the fire. In New York, the Giants will either wait an entire season to start Daniel Jones or tank the first few games with barely any receiving options (Golden Tate suspended, Sterling Shepard week-to-week and Corey Coleman on IR) before benching Eli Manning for the preseason MVP. Washington actually has a solid defense but, the early tapes on Dwayne Haskins do not impress. Case Keenum should be fine for half the season until fans grow impatient at how mediocre Jay Gruden's offense looks compared to the rest of the NFL. Gruden is on the hot seat and I see both him and Keenum off the field before Week 17. Ezekiel Elliott got fed a $90 million contract and despite the offensive line not being quite as good as they were during his rookie season, the return of Travis Frederick at Center cannot be overstated for how much help he brings to the Dallas football equation. The Dallas defense is also on the rise and they rival Philadelphia on both sides of the ball. Speaking of the Eagles, there is no team deeper than Doug Pederson's right now, as was the case two years ago when they took down the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Can Wentz stay healthy? I say yes and just in time because unlike with Nick Foles, there's a difference between Carson Wentz and 38-year old brought-out-of-retirement Josh McCown.

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Matt Slocum, AP
The return of DeSean Jackson (above) after a five-year stint around the NFL should take some pressure off of Zach Ertz after a record-breaking 116 catch season for the Tight End.

NFC North
Chicago Bears 11-5
Green Bay Packers 11-5
Minnesota Vikings 8-8
Detroit Lions 6-10

Sports Illustrated had the Bears finishing in last before the injury bug bit Detroit hard and even before that series of unfortunate events for Detroit, it was really hard to imagine just how Matt Nagy's obsession with a missed field goal could tear a team down immediately after a breakthrough season. There are no bad defenses here right now with Green Bay rebuilding via free agency for the first time in the GM Brian Gutekunst era, Minnesota bringing back most of everyone including a renewed and refreshed Everson Griffen and Chicago coming off an excellent first season with Kahlil Mack in the Windy City. Unfortunately, LB Jarrad Davis is lost for a significant amount of time, as is guard Frank Ragnow and that's not a good sign with literally zero games of consequence played last year or any recent year for this unlucky Lions' franchise. The rebuilt D-line (now starring Trey Flowers and featuring Mike Daniels) can only do so much for the consistently middle-of-the-road offense. The Vikings are still one star short of a Super Bowl contender and who knows, maybe that star is just a healthy Dalvin Cook or one Josh Norman trade away (Not that Norman is actively on Washington's trade block but, at 3-13 anything could happen there). How Aaron Rodgers and rookie head coach Matt LaFleur get along will determine whether or not we ever see Rodgers in MVP/Super Bowl contention again but, Green Bay just needs to see their first healthy (relatively speaking) season in a while to stay afloat against the Bears and their flashiest offense in franchise history (no seriously, the Bears only fun offense since Walter Payton was that one Marc Trestman season so, excuse the Bears fans for buying whatever Matt Nagy is selling in 2019). Losing defensive coordinator Vic Fangio matters but, a second-year of Nagy over young playmakers like QB Mitchell Trubisky, RB David Montgomery and WR Anthony Miller should offset any decline on defense.

NFC South
New Orleans Saints 13-3
Carolina Panthers 10-6
Atlanta Falcons 9-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13

Oddly enough, I have three of these four teams losing one more game than I did on last year's preview and yet, none of those three games dropped by the solid teams falls in Tampa Bay's favor, who I have at 3-13 again. I'm just not enough of a believer in Bruce Arians to see Jameis Winston in a Buccaneer uniform beyond this season. Also, that defense is not going to be good. As for the teams that matter, the Falcons need to get back to the playoffs and stop wasting Julio Jones' prime. The injury bugs have yet to spread across the league but, they will and Atlanta surely cannot be as unlucky as they were last season losing their three best defenders in September (LB Deion Jones missed half the season while safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen landed on IR for good). Carolina's no longer ENTIRELY dependent on the health of Cam Newton's shoulder (Christian McCaffrey's shiftiness and lack of depth behind him reign supreme in importance) but, he still matters more to his team than about 25-30 quarterbacks do to their respective teams. The Panthers have a couple of question marks on defense like "Is Gerald McCoy still elite?" and "Just how many more hits can Luke Kuechly take?" but, there's the DNA of a playoff team under Ron Rivera. If things go south for Carolina, Rivera will be headed elsewhere in 2020 (Washington? Minnesota? Arizona???). After two heart-wrenching playoff losses on a Hail Mary to Stefon Diggs and an uncalled pass interference that changed the league's rule book forever, the Saints are back with essentially the same squad as last year minus Mark Ingram, plus Latavius Murray and the loss in catching ability that Ingram learned and Murray doesn't have yet will be made up by new tight end Jared Cook. Expect similar results from a similar roster.

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USA TODAY Sports
Playing catch-up all year long leads to Mike Evans topping the NFL in receiving yards.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks 11-5
Los Angeles Rams 9-7
Arizona Cardinals 5-11
San Francisco 49ers 3-13

There are some major unknowns in the NFC West and yet, things could end strikingly similar to last year with everyone sleeping on Seattle again and LA having built a formidable system for the long haul on offense. What causes the Rams to regress and miss the postseason is their quietly lesser offensive line with the losses of center John Sullivan and guard Rodger Saffold. Sean McVay wasn't the only important revelation for Jared Goff and Todd Gurley these past two seasons, the real reason the shift from cellar dweller to contender and Super Bowl participant happened as quickly as it did was a trustworthy line giving the kids (now veterans) room to breathe. The LA defense isn't quite as deep and with the additions of Clay Matthews and Eric Weddle, they just look a little bit older and potentially slower than they did a year ago as well. Seattle just picked up Jadeveon Clowney, an underrated run defender and quality pass rusher that could be the one missing piece that gets them a wildcard or better yet, an advantage over the Rams. The biggest question in Seattle is can Tyler Lockett immediately take over where now-retired WR Doug Baldwin left off? I'm not as concerned about the loss of Earl Thomas since they sneaked into the playoffs without him (due to injury) last season. Can Kliff Kingsbury bring the air raid offense to the NFL with an electrifying rookie quarterback to immediate success? Again, not with that offensive line. The Cardinals defense is also a major issue after being serviceable and more for most of the 2010s with Patrick Peterson now suspended six games. The 49ers did not set the world on fire with Jimmy Garoppolo healthy last season (1-2) but, he should still be a step up from Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard. I'm not as concerned with Kyle Shanahan's ability to run some successful play-actions on offense as I am with Garoppolo and whether or not he can be the first successful post-Patriot Tom Brady backup on another team.

MVP - QB Patrick Mahomes
OPOTY - QB Aaron Rodgers
DPOTY - OLB Von Miller
OROTY - QB Kyler Murray
DROTY - ILB Devin Bush
CoachOTY - Bill Belichick
ComebackPOTY - RB Le'Veon Bell
Passing leader - Ben Roethlisberger
Rushing leader - Ezekiel Elliott
Receiving leader - Mike Evans
1st Coach Fired - Jay Gruden

My Official Super Bowl Prediction
Eagles 34 - Steelers 33

The safest bet is the New England Patriots, duh. That's not fun though. Philadelphia has a starter-quality backup at nearly every position and this is a bet on Carson Wentz staying healthy as that is one of the very few thinner positions on the team. Meanwhile, I'm also betting on Devin Bush being a rare player that transforms the Steelers' defense from good to great as the Ryan Shazier replacement they needed and missed so dearly last season, when they barely missed out on the postseason. This franchise wants to get Ben Roethlisberger one more ring (that'd be 3) and they want to prove themselves right for letting Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown walk. Antonio Brown is kind of proving them in the right already by literally fighting his new front office. The Eagles win this shootout by a missed extra point because the decline in production from Chris Boswell is the one weakness the Steelers did not address this offseason and this will lead to an offseason-long discussion on how important something as random as kicking SHOULD be in the NFL. Ultimately, nothing will change but there seems to be a rising swell of support for just outlawing kickers that I could see becoming a narrative if things get shakier league-wide.

Super Bowl MVP: QB Carson Wentz

May the new season bring everyone quality health and serene locker room chemistry, it's time for some football.