Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Conference Championship Previews + 2016 Heisman/Top 25 Updates

Did rivalry weekend reignite the spark that this college football season needed this weekend? In the case of Ohio State-Michigan, it absolutely did. In the case of every other big-name matchup? Ehh, not so much. "The Game" going to double overtime was easily the greatest game played in this amateur sport all year and since it was so early in the day, everyone else that followed felt underwhelming and FAR less competitive. Take Washington-Washington State for instance... two teams having their best defensive performances in years this season and the classic air raid attack of Mike Leach's offense versus a team filled with skill players that are more talented than some NFL teams (I see you, Chicago Bears). Ultimately, it was not even close after one measly quarter and Washington improved their playoff odds with the blowout victory. Sure, Colorado-Utah was close and the novelty of Alabama-Auburn is still relevant after all these years but, there are just too many rival schools in America that are not even close in terms of talent this season (see: Clemson-South Carolina). Also, it's still Nick Saban's world and we're all just casually losing through it.

Conference Championship Previews
Marathon MAC Championship (7 PM ET, Friday on ESPN2): Western Michigan v. Ohio in Detroit, MI
(Dave Richard/Associated Press)
Western Mich. WR Corey Davis would be a great Heisman Candidate if people actually cared about Bronco football.
Only two teams in college football finished the regular season undefeated. One team was Nick Saban's Death Star that only has a 1% chance of losing and the other was P.J. Fleck's Western Michigan Broncos. The boat rowers have had a ridiculously easy schedule in comparison to the SEC powerhouse but, it still seems like they should be ranked higher than their current status at #21. WMU seems to be thriving thanks to the disrespect shown their way by the CFP committee and with future NFLers at QB (Zach Terrell), RB (Jarvion Franklin) and WR (Corey Davis), it hasn't mattered when their defense has slipped up against Toledo, Kent State and Eastern Michigan. Ohio's offense has nothing to brag about and the Bobcats are completely reliant on their defense, as made evident in last week's 9-3 win over Akron. Senior D-lineman Tarell Basham has the perfect name as he has bashed through every offensive line he's faced this season. Will Basham's ten sack total have a chance at getting higher against tackles Chukwuma Okorafor and Taylor Moton? Probably (#analysis). The real test will be on Zach Terrell and seeing how quick he can release the ball before Ohio's stout defense affects his throws.

My Pick: Western Michigan 24-10

PAC-12 Championship Game (9 PM ET on FOX): Colorado v. Washington in Santa Clara, CA
(David Zalubowski/AP)
After shutting down Utah's passing game, Colorado's defense faces it's toughest challenge yet against Jake Browning and company.
Entering the 2016 season, I was fully on board with Washington being a contender and with QB Jake Browning throwing 40 touchdowns, it's easy to say that the Huskies have exceeded expectations by miles on offense. Most of the national hype surrounding "sleeper team" Washington was focused on how good their defense had been in 2015 and with how great their offense has performed, the defense has stayed true to their potential and is a top 10 defense in college. Colorado has gained momentum ever since QB Sefo Liufau returned from injury in a 40-16 win over Arizona State. Since that game, their offense has had it's flashes of greatness while the defense has been outstanding with CB Tedric Thompson getting hot as of late. Colorado has shut down Stanford 10-5 and UCLA 20-10 and recently brushed aside two #22 teams in Washington State (38-24) and Utah (27-22). This is one of a rare couple conference championships that everyone should absolutely watch.

My Pick: Colorado 19-16

NOTE: Every game listed below takes place on Saturday

AAC Championship (12 PM ET on ABC): Temple v. Navy in Annapolis, MD
Louis DeLuca/AP
If you like an absurd amount of rushing attempts, Temple-Navy is the game for you.
The departure of QB Keenan Reynolds seems have had little to no effect on the Midshipmen's success as Navy will finish the season as the only ranked team in the American Athletic Conference. The Navy offensive line is just that good that they can let Keenan Reynolds set records and follow up that performance with senior QB Will Worth rushing for 25 touchdowns and counting (remember that Army-Navy takes place on December 10th on CBS as the official last game of the regular season). If there is one defense that has a chance at stopping Worth, it is the Owls of Temple. After having immediate success that ended in disappointment last season, Temple dropped their home opener to Army and dropped off of everyone's radar for the 2016 season. As it turns out, Temple's defense is the hottest in the nation as of the last month with 23 total points allowed in their last four games against Cincinnati, Connecticut, Tulane and Eastern Carolina (none of whom are world-beaters this year but still... 23 points TOTAL). The deciding factor on this game will be what iteration of the Owl offense will show up as they have been far more inconsistent than they were a year ago and there are certainly weaknesses in Navy's defense to exploit.

My Pick: Navy 38-17

Conference USA Championship Game (12 PM ET on ESPN): Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky in Bowling Green, KY
Martin Conley/The Daily Independent
The Hilltoppers have a chance at redemption after a 52-55 loss at Louisiana Tech in October and the running game (featuring RB Anthony Wales) figures to play a much bigger role than in their original meeting.
I have been so impressed by WKU head coach Jeff Brohm these past few years as he went from being another "Air Raid" offense-running underrated QB-whisperer to an actually great head coach this season as he let the running game loose a bit more on the way to a 9-3 record. After beginning the season 3-3, the Hilltoppers have gone on a six-game winning streak after making some adjustments to their overall strategy. It's only been two years since the most memorable college shootout I've ever seen occurred between Western Kentucky and Marshall and just last week, WKU looked like an SEC team versus Marshall's timid transition squad in a 60-6 victory. This game figures to be another high-scoring affair for both teams as Louisiana Tech rode the arm of Ryan Higgins and the hands of Carlos Henderson to a 55-52 win in which the Bulldogs staved off a comeback attempt by QB Mike White and his favorite wideouts. It could just turn into another passing bonanza but, I'd like to think that both teams are smarter than that and realize that both run defenses can be had as well.

My Pick: Western Kentucky 45-38

SEC Championship Game (4 PM ET on CBS): Alabama v. Florida in Atlanta, Georgia
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
RoboSaban consoles his latest victim as he thinks ahead to the SEC Championship game.
Alabama is still undefeated and Florida has 59 points over their last four games. Sure, the Gators have the fifth-best defense in college but, this result seems more obvious than the rest of the conference championships.

My Pick: Alabama 38-6

ACC Championship Game (8 PM ET on ABC): Clemson v. Virginia Tech in Orlando, FL
Steve Helber-AP
If Virginia Tech wants to have any chance in this game, QB Jerod Evans will need to play extremely well.
The Virginia Tech Hokies have one quality win (34-3 over North Carolina) and three losses in total. Their schedule was much weaker than Clemson's and they failed to get anywhere close to the Tigers' success this season. The motivation to win it all is driving Clemson as a loss here would knock them out of the College Football Playoff. This is the final stretch run for pretty much every one of their offensive skill players and they are not going to waste that opportunity. Virginia Tech can put up a good fight on both ends of the ball but, they have yet to face a team like Clemson and that will show on Saturday night.

My Pick: Clemson 49-24

Big Ten Championship Game (8 PM ET on FOX): Wisconsin v. Penn State in Indianapolis, IN
FoxSports
The Watt family continues to make Wisconsin great again with the latest sibling, T.J. dominating.
In a matchup of two teams that are heavily reliant on their running games and defenses, the winner of this game is probably headed to the College Football Playoff barring some questionable judgement on the part of the committee. It's not hard to figure out which team should be favored in this game when looking at how each team competed versus Michigan. Penn State lost 10-49 at "The Big House" while Wisconsin's defense had a far more respectable game in a close 7-14 loss also on the road. Wisconsin's two losses have come by a combined 14 points to teams that are currently still in the CFP and their defense should have no problems against RB Saquon Barkley and will force QB Trace McSorley to air it out more than he is used to. Again, the winner of this game SHOULD go to the playoffs but, if the final is something like 45-42 (highly unlikely), then I'm sure the committee will feel more comfortable with Bama, Clemson, Ohio State and Washington but again.... that's not going to happen.

My Pick: Wisconsin 31-17


Other games (involving ranked teams) taking place on Saturday
12:30 PM ET: (FOX) Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma
3:30 PM ET: (FS1) Baylor @ West Virginia

The AT (Andy Todd) Top 25
#1. Alabama Crimson Tide
#2. Ohio State Buckeyes
#3. Clemson Tigers
#4. Washington Huskies
#5. Wisconsin Badgers
#6. Michigan Wolverines
#7. Oklahoma Sooners
#8. Colorado Buffaloes
#9. Penn State Nittany Lions
#10. Oklahoma State Cowboys
#11. Western Michigan Broncos
#12. West Virginia Moutaineers
#13. USC Trojans
#14. Florida State Seminoles
#15. Florida Gators
#16. Navy Midshipmen
#17. Virginia Tech Hokies
#18. South Florida Bulls
#19. Stanford Cardinal
#20. Louisville Cardinals
#21. Iowa Hawkeyes
#22. Auburn Tigers
#23. LSU Tigers
#24. Boise State Broncos
#25. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Heisman Update
#1. QB Lamar Jackson - Louisville
#2. QB Baker Mayfield - Oklahoma
#3. QB DeShaun Watson - Clemson

Good luck to the teams of your choice and may the weekend be filled with chaos for our entertainment pleasure!

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