I've tried my hardest to predict the upcoming season despite a seemingly record amount of turnover so, here are my thoughts on each division...
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| The Boston Globe Prediction: The Patriots demolish the AFC East. |
New England Patriots 14-2
Miami Dolphins 8-8
Buffalo Bills 2-14
New York Jets 1-15
The Patriots have, by far, the easiest road to the postseason and should receive all credit at the end of the year for making their path so easy. Whether it's adding Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore to a Super Bowl-winning roster or the continued domination of their division leading to two different teams fully tanking (Jets & Bills), the Patriots have this division locked down with or without Tom Brady. Miami is staring at another .500 season as Jay Cutler barely moves the team's win trajectory backwards from Ryan Tannehill. This is an absolute mess of a division and yet, New England will not go undefeated.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 11-5
Pittsburgh Pirates 9-7
Cleveland Browns 7-9
Cincinnati Bengals 6-10
I'm not totally OUT on the Steelers and I actually love their defense headed into 2017. I just went through every team's schedule and I favored Baltimore's schedule and Cleveland's offensive line enough to cut into the odds that Pittsburgh dominates again. Cincinnati decided to reunite the entire 2016 gang but, decided to part with two of their offensive linemen and downgraded at both positions. Starting DeShone Kizer from day one of his NFL career could prove costly for Cleveland but if the preseason is any indication, he is ready to play now and with a quality team that's already halfway there during a rebuild, this team just needs time before they're ready to escape their ugly recent history. Baltimore may have already lost RB Kenneth Dixon and LB Albert McClellan for the season but, Ozzie Newsome spent the off-season trying to recapture the greatness of past Baltimore defenses. It only takes one injury to change things dramatically and with Ben Roethlisberger considering retirement this off-season, it does not appear this team will be able to get on the same page for a Super Bowl run.
AFC South
Tennessee Titans 10-6
Houston Texans 9-7
Indianapolis Colts 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12
The health of Andrew Luck will answer whether or not Indianapolis lives up to their 8-8 potential. Luck's presence also could swing virtually every divisional game on the Colts' schedule. The Texans have one of the league's top defenses with J.J. Watt healthy and on the field but, Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller and Braxton Miller appear to need more time to develop into effective NFL players so, the offense is not quite ready for the postseason. Mike Mularkey has never been a flashy name as a head coach as his ground-and-pound mentality is a throwback in today's game and luckily for him, GM Jon Robinson picked up an excellent duo of running backs last off-season in addition to having one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Jacksonville will only be something if they trade for Tyrod Taylor and their free agents pay off for the first time in years.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs 12-4
Oakland Raiders 11-5
Los Angeles Chargers 8-8
Denver Broncos 7-9
Denver can only rely on their defense for so long and Trevor Siemian is not an NFL Quarterback, sorry I'm not sorry. The Chargers' significant lack of a crowd in their new stadium might feel demoralizing for some of the players that thrive on performing for huge audiences. Oakland is still everyone's favorite up-and-coming team but, it still seems like every Raider should be at least a little bit better than they actually are. Kansas City's last-minute addition of second year linebacker Reggie Ragland might prove wise if Derrick Johnson goes down again. I'll take the Chiefs experience and lack of turnover above Oakland's potential and inconsistent defense.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 10-6
New York Giants 10-6
Philadelphia Eagles 8-8
Washington 6-10
With or without Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott is going to be awesome this season behind the best tackle (Tyron Smith), guard (Zack Martin) and center (Travis Frederick) in football. The Cowboys defense will be optional over the long run. Philadelphia needs to support their second-year quarterback slightly better if that team wants to go anywhere near the playoffs soon. The Giants have built an interesting roster around Eli Manning that could both kill him (the offensive line is a joke) and save him (Brandon Marshall, Odell Beckham Jr. and Evan Engram can save the worst passes and their defense is still top 3 in the league). With the sudden departure of 22-year old safety Su'a Cravens, Washington's defense will be in turmoil early on and by the time Jay Gruden figures out what to do with that side of the ball, the absence of former offensive coordinator Sean McVey will become apparent. I'm not buying what Dan Snyder's team is selling.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 12-4
Minnesota Vikings 9-7
Detroit Lions 6-10
Chicago Bears 4-12
I do not see much change in the NFC North as the Bears still suck, Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers, the Vikings are still my favorite sleeper team that is one or two injuries away from being bad and I hate the Lions for whatever reason as they will drop three games from their win total despite the current 100% health of Ameer Abdullah. The Vikings improved their offensive line and running back situations enough that they should make the Packers nervous. The Lions are not all that different from the 2016 iteration of Detroit's team and they're one injury (poor Taylor Decker) away from being in the wildcard hunt.
NFC South
Carolina Panthers 10-6
Atlanta Falcons 9-7
New Orleans Saints 9-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-9
Carolina still has to get over the loss of Josh Norman and a full season of health from both Cam Newton and Kelvin Benjamin combined with gradual improvement of the defensive backfield will result in another division win for Ron Rivera. The fall of the Falcons will not be as tragic as their Super Bowl loss or the 2016 Arizona Cardinals but, they will miss OC Kyle Shanahan. The addition of Adrian Peterson might be the most hyped transaction for the Saints but with his age and injury history, the former Viking should not have an impact on any team in 2017. Instead, New Orleans will see their first non-atrocious defense in years and Drew Brees will still be awesome and the Saints should be in the wildcard hunt. Tampa Bay, much like Oakland, is getting the "they have ARRIVED!" hype before they've actually put anything together long enough to win a playoff game. Even worse, Tampa hasn't made the playoffs with their core of players yet. I'm not a Buccaneer believer until I see that defense improve and Jameis Winston evolve on being a poor impersonator of Brett Favre.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks 10-6
Arizona Cardinals 10-6
Los Angeles Rams 6-10
San Francisco 49ers 3-13
Despite Carson Palmer's continued decline in skills and the losses of S Tony Jefferson and DE Calais Campbell, the Cardinals will have just enough great resources (much like the Giants but, with one of the three best running backs in the NFL) for a wildcard spot. Jared Goff is the biggest mystery headed into 2017 after a horrific rookie season quarterbacking for an outdated head coach (Jeff Fisher). Will hiring the NFL's youngest head coach ever help Goff return to #1 pick status? Not yet but, give them a chance with a smarter, more balanced offense. Kyle Shanahan can't suddenly make Brian Hoyer or C.J. Beathard MVP candidates so, the 49ers are screwed this season thanks to letting Colin Kaepernick walk in free agency (but hey, he's still available!). Seattle is now entering year six of their sudden and impressive dominance. Adding Sheldon Richardson to a defense that already had Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright, Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas is more Golden State Warriors and KD-ish than anything New England did this Spring or Summer.
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| When trying to avoid an obvious MVP candidate like Rodgers, Brady or David Johnson, Russell Wilson seems like a fun, realistic pick. |
MVP - QB Russell Wilson
OPOTY - QB Aaron Rodgers
DPOTY - S Earl Thomas
OROTY - RB Leonard Fournette
DROTY - DE Myles Garrett
CoachOTY - John Harbaugh
ComebackPOTY - S Earl Thomas
Passing leader - Drew Brees
Rushing leader - Ezekiel Elliott (with no suspension), David Johnson (with suspension)
Receiving leader - Brandin Cooks
1st Coach Fired - John Fox
My Official Super Bowl Prediction
Seahawks 31 - Patriots 20
Before going through every single game and picking every winner, I thought I'd get really weird this year and give the Vikings their first ever Lombardi Trophy. Alas, they fell one game short of a wildcard appearance and instead, Seattle lives up to their fullest potential with a healthy Tyler Lockett, a not-the-worst-in-the-league offensive line and the most important defensive player in the NFL, Earl Thomas. Pete Carroll will make sure to not have a repeat of Super Bowl 49 as Seattle will put up and prevent enough points to make any efforts at a Super Bowl 51 repeat for New England impossible. Russell Wilson has beaten more impressive defenses with worse receivers on his own team in the past and Seattle's defense was not healthy three Super Bowls ago despite Thomas and Sherman playing in the 24-28 loss. All that plus Jimmy Graham points in Seattle's favor. Besides, Ricardo Lockette and Marshawn Lynch aren't on the team anymore so, the temptation to throw inside the five might not even be there for 'ol thrill-seeking Pete Carroll.
Super Bowl MVP: QB Russell Wilson
Best of luck to your team of choice and may the action on the field live up to the hype being built up this week!
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