This is all just a long-winded way of telling people to NOT bet on the Patriots' Super Bowl odds (try something a little flashy yet reasonable like Minnesota or Pittsburgh or even the Titans if the Marcus Mariota contract year brings him super powers). The league might not be as wide open as the NBA is right now but beyond New England, who is the clear favorite? Without Gronk and Trey Flowers and tackle Trent Brown, aren't the Patriots just one of at least 8 teams with really good quarterbacks that could just ride their passing games to a playoff run? Essentially, yes. As always, injuries will come into play more than they do in any of the other big American sports and the deepest team (The Eagles had a bunch of major injuries two years ago and survived off of a stacked veteran depth chart) has solid odds at persevering. Until those bodies end up on the trainers' tables, we're just left picking names out of a hat and hoping that the teams' fortunes aren't seriously affected by one key lineman taking an awkward step.
Here are my random picks (but really, I put some time and thought into this and picked every game so, at least please respect the process) for the NFL season ahead...
AFC East
New England Patriots 12-4
Buffalo Bills 8-8
New York Jets 8-8
Miami Dolphins 3-13
Both Buffalo and New York should be on an upward trajectory with the improvements made by their two second-year quarterbacks. They will both be in the wildcard hunt with the Jets' secondary and Bills' overall lack of talent keeping them close but still on the outside looking in. Miami's organization is tanking despite whatever miracles Ryan Fitzpatrick, Charles Harris and Raekwon McMillan can pull off on the field (and any wins should be considered miracles for the Dolphins in 2019). The loss of TE Rob Gronkowski would signal the end of an era for any other franchise but, these are the New England fucking Patriots we're talking about and with a potential 16-game schedule out of veteran receivers Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon and Demaryius Thomas, they might just give 42-year old Tom Brady one last run at his 4th MVP award. Not much to say about this division, just insert anything said since 2012 and it's probably fitting. Lock it in, the Pats are playoff bound.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
Baltimore Ravens 10-6
Cleveland Browns 9-7
Cincinnati Bengals 3-13
When Father Todd and I went through a few prop bets and announced our over/under picks in a now annual tradition, his bet for first coach fired was Bengals' rookie head coach Zac Taylor. I was shocked. What does this 59-year old mustachioed Midwesterner know that Cincinnati's front office doesn't heading into 2019? (Ignore the fact that he just stated "Cincinnati's head coach" with zero knowledge of Taylor's background or name and instead, focus on how widely known it is that this team's season is destined for failure). I agree with all of the hype for this division surrounding the Browns and they SHOULD be a playoff team based on the talent of their starting lineup but, these are still the Cleveland Browns and something has to go wrong. Maybe Freddie Kitchens struggles to adjust to life as a head coach, maybe the holes in the o-line are exposed or maybe defenses catch on to Baker Mayfield's habits as he hits a sophomore speed bump. Baltimore rebuilt everything besides their solid offensive line and that leaves a wide range that this team, with as unproven a commodity as Lamar Jackson leading the way, could finish with a ceiling of 13-3 or a floor of 4-12. I see them sneaking in as a wildcard thanks to Jackson's playmaking abilities coming in clutch and John Harbaugh's coaching being an advantage over similar wildcard candidates. Typically, losing two of the best offensive skill position players in the NFL would be a tragic turn of events for a franchise but, these are the Pittsburgh Steelers and they just constantly reload talent since the 1970s. They already won games without Le'Veon Bell last season (just barely missing the playoffs) and the loss of Antonio Brown just spreads the ball around more to improving receiver James Washington, veteran addition Donte' Moncrief and tight end Vance McDonald. Any wins lost on offense should be picked up by the young and improving defense and the fact that they don't have to face a first-place schedule.
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| Steph Chambers/Post-Gazette Defense is back in style in Pittsburgh with a young linebacker trio (T.J. Watt [above], Bud Dupree, rookie Devin Bush) revitalizing a unit that has been inconsistent the past five years. |
AFC South
Houston Texans 9-7
Jacksonville Jaguars 8-8
Indianapolis Colts 7-9
Tennessee Titans 5-11
One of the more wide open divisions, the AFC South's dip in quality over the past two weeks has been surprising to say the least. The Colts went from Super Bowl contenders to who the hell knows with Jacoby Brissett taking over for a retired Andrew Luck under center. The rest of the team remains a truly great, on-the-rise squad but, the aspirations have been lowered for the immediate future. The Texans gave up some serious draft capitol (two firsts and a second) along with DE Jadeveon Clowney for a left tackle (Laremy Tunsil) to give Deshaun Watson some needed relief from opposing pass rushers, a more-experienced Will Fuller (Kenny Stills) and a third rounder. I don't think the B+ lineman and C+ receiver make up for the loss of an all-pro defender but, J.J. Watt remains and as long as he's in a Texans' uniform, they'll hover around .500 and have an advantage over similarly-talented teams. Jacksonville is a similarly-talented team with some noticeable weaknesses now that linebacker Telvin Smith is taking a season off and Nick Foles is left playing with some inexperienced receivers. The defense of two years ago mostly remains but, there's going to be some leftover bad vibes that keep them from seeing their full potential. The Titans could be 11-5 or 5-11 and I see things going poorly with Mike Vrabel not knowing who to start at quarterback. I've been on Marcus Mariota Island and Ryan Tannehill Island for both of their careers but, I just don't think either has been healthy long enough to build on any promise their talent brings to the table. The Tennessee defense is weaker along the front seven in experience especially but, should be fine with a very underrated secondary. Ultimately, the schedule will be too tough and my faith in them is shakier than it has been in a while.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7
Denver Broncos 9-7
Los Angeles Chargers 8-8
Oakland Raiders 6-10
The regression to the mean is here for Kansas City. No, their offense won't lose much of a step (though the running back situation will prove tough to fix post-Kareem Hunt) but the rest of the league is better (at least the Chiefs' opponents and the AFC West are) than they were and Kansas City has nowhere to go but down except for their completely rebuilt and unpredictable defense. Denver revives Joe Flacco's career for a second stint at stardom with a still-good defense and improving young offensive weapons. Melvin Gordon's holdout puts a bit more pressure on Philip Rivers and with how quietly inconsistent the quarterback's been over sixteen seasons, I expect a regression on his part as well. Losing Derwin James for the season isn't helping LA's case either in their last season playing in a soccer stadium. All three of those teams are entering the season pretty confident and looking like normal NFL teams.... and then there's the Raiders. Oakland is quietly in the playoff hunt too with the Antonio Brown, Trent Brown and LaMarcus Joyner additions but, the "distraction" narrative that every team uses to excuse themselves from signing Colin Kaepernick or Dez Bryant actually applies in Oakland. Jon Gruden is not long for this land of oak and despite the ingredients being there for a wildcard contender, I just don't see the team overcoming an overmatched and outdated coaching staff mixed with a prove it or beat it season for Derek Carr, whatever the hell Antonio Brown is and true headcases constantly facing suspension like Richie Incognito and Vontaze Burfict. At least they claimed DeShone Kizer at the last minute... that will solve everything.
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| USA TODAY Sports OLB Bradley Chubb (above) will blossom into an all-pro with the ability to lead the league in sacks annually in year #2 alongside perennial all-pro Von Miller. |
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 12-4
Philadelphia Eagles 12-4
New York Giants 5-11
Washington 3-13
Much like last season's AFC East, this division has two teams just waiting to throw their rookies into the fire. In New York, the Giants will either wait an entire season to start Daniel Jones or tank the first few games with barely any receiving options (Golden Tate suspended, Sterling Shepard week-to-week and Corey Coleman on IR) before benching Eli Manning for the preseason MVP. Washington actually has a solid defense but, the early tapes on Dwayne Haskins do not impress. Case Keenum should be fine for half the season until fans grow impatient at how mediocre Jay Gruden's offense looks compared to the rest of the NFL. Gruden is on the hot seat and I see both him and Keenum off the field before Week 17. Ezekiel Elliott got fed a $90 million contract and despite the offensive line not being quite as good as they were during his rookie season, the return of Travis Frederick at Center cannot be overstated for how much help he brings to the Dallas football equation. The Dallas defense is also on the rise and they rival Philadelphia on both sides of the ball. Speaking of the Eagles, there is no team deeper than Doug Pederson's right now, as was the case two years ago when they took down the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Can Wentz stay healthy? I say yes and just in time because unlike with Nick Foles, there's a difference between Carson Wentz and 38-year old brought-out-of-retirement Josh McCown.
Much like last season's AFC East, this division has two teams just waiting to throw their rookies into the fire. In New York, the Giants will either wait an entire season to start Daniel Jones or tank the first few games with barely any receiving options (Golden Tate suspended, Sterling Shepard week-to-week and Corey Coleman on IR) before benching Eli Manning for the preseason MVP. Washington actually has a solid defense but, the early tapes on Dwayne Haskins do not impress. Case Keenum should be fine for half the season until fans grow impatient at how mediocre Jay Gruden's offense looks compared to the rest of the NFL. Gruden is on the hot seat and I see both him and Keenum off the field before Week 17. Ezekiel Elliott got fed a $90 million contract and despite the offensive line not being quite as good as they were during his rookie season, the return of Travis Frederick at Center cannot be overstated for how much help he brings to the Dallas football equation. The Dallas defense is also on the rise and they rival Philadelphia on both sides of the ball. Speaking of the Eagles, there is no team deeper than Doug Pederson's right now, as was the case two years ago when they took down the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Can Wentz stay healthy? I say yes and just in time because unlike with Nick Foles, there's a difference between Carson Wentz and 38-year old brought-out-of-retirement Josh McCown.
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| Matt Slocum, AP The return of DeSean Jackson (above) after a five-year stint around the NFL should take some pressure off of Zach Ertz after a record-breaking 116 catch season for the Tight End. |
NFC North
Chicago Bears 11-5
Green Bay Packers 11-5
Minnesota Vikings 8-8
Detroit Lions 6-10
Sports Illustrated had the Bears finishing in last before the injury bug bit Detroit hard and even before that series of unfortunate events for Detroit, it was really hard to imagine just how Matt Nagy's obsession with a missed field goal could tear a team down immediately after a breakthrough season. There are no bad defenses here right now with Green Bay rebuilding via free agency for the first time in the GM Brian Gutekunst era, Minnesota bringing back most of everyone including a renewed and refreshed Everson Griffen and Chicago coming off an excellent first season with Kahlil Mack in the Windy City. Unfortunately, LB Jarrad Davis is lost for a significant amount of time, as is guard Frank Ragnow and that's not a good sign with literally zero games of consequence played last year or any recent year for this unlucky Lions' franchise. The rebuilt D-line (now starring Trey Flowers and featuring Mike Daniels) can only do so much for the consistently middle-of-the-road offense. The Vikings are still one star short of a Super Bowl contender and who knows, maybe that star is just a healthy Dalvin Cook or one Josh Norman trade away (Not that Norman is actively on Washington's trade block but, at 3-13 anything could happen there). How Aaron Rodgers and rookie head coach Matt LaFleur get along will determine whether or not we ever see Rodgers in MVP/Super Bowl contention again but, Green Bay just needs to see their first healthy (relatively speaking) season in a while to stay afloat against the Bears and their flashiest offense in franchise history (no seriously, the Bears only fun offense since Walter Payton was that one Marc Trestman season so, excuse the Bears fans for buying whatever Matt Nagy is selling in 2019). Losing defensive coordinator Vic Fangio matters but, a second-year of Nagy over young playmakers like QB Mitchell Trubisky, RB David Montgomery and WR Anthony Miller should offset any decline on defense.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints 13-3Chicago Bears 11-5
Green Bay Packers 11-5
Minnesota Vikings 8-8
Detroit Lions 6-10
Sports Illustrated had the Bears finishing in last before the injury bug bit Detroit hard and even before that series of unfortunate events for Detroit, it was really hard to imagine just how Matt Nagy's obsession with a missed field goal could tear a team down immediately after a breakthrough season. There are no bad defenses here right now with Green Bay rebuilding via free agency for the first time in the GM Brian Gutekunst era, Minnesota bringing back most of everyone including a renewed and refreshed Everson Griffen and Chicago coming off an excellent first season with Kahlil Mack in the Windy City. Unfortunately, LB Jarrad Davis is lost for a significant amount of time, as is guard Frank Ragnow and that's not a good sign with literally zero games of consequence played last year or any recent year for this unlucky Lions' franchise. The rebuilt D-line (now starring Trey Flowers and featuring Mike Daniels) can only do so much for the consistently middle-of-the-road offense. The Vikings are still one star short of a Super Bowl contender and who knows, maybe that star is just a healthy Dalvin Cook or one Josh Norman trade away (Not that Norman is actively on Washington's trade block but, at 3-13 anything could happen there). How Aaron Rodgers and rookie head coach Matt LaFleur get along will determine whether or not we ever see Rodgers in MVP/Super Bowl contention again but, Green Bay just needs to see their first healthy (relatively speaking) season in a while to stay afloat against the Bears and their flashiest offense in franchise history (no seriously, the Bears only fun offense since Walter Payton was that one Marc Trestman season so, excuse the Bears fans for buying whatever Matt Nagy is selling in 2019). Losing defensive coordinator Vic Fangio matters but, a second-year of Nagy over young playmakers like QB Mitchell Trubisky, RB David Montgomery and WR Anthony Miller should offset any decline on defense.
NFC South
Carolina Panthers 10-6
Atlanta Falcons 9-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13
Oddly enough, I have three of these four teams losing one more game than I did on last year's preview and yet, none of those three games dropped by the solid teams falls in Tampa Bay's favor, who I have at 3-13 again. I'm just not enough of a believer in Bruce Arians to see Jameis Winston in a Buccaneer uniform beyond this season. Also, that defense is not going to be good. As for the teams that matter, the Falcons need to get back to the playoffs and stop wasting Julio Jones' prime. The injury bugs have yet to spread across the league but, they will and Atlanta surely cannot be as unlucky as they were last season losing their three best defenders in September (LB Deion Jones missed half the season while safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen landed on IR for good). Carolina's no longer ENTIRELY dependent on the health of Cam Newton's shoulder (Christian McCaffrey's shiftiness and lack of depth behind him reign supreme in importance) but, he still matters more to his team than about 25-30 quarterbacks do to their respective teams. The Panthers have a couple of question marks on defense like "Is Gerald McCoy still elite?" and "Just how many more hits can Luke Kuechly take?" but, there's the DNA of a playoff team under Ron Rivera. If things go south for Carolina, Rivera will be headed elsewhere in 2020 (Washington? Minnesota? Arizona???). After two heart-wrenching playoff losses on a Hail Mary to Stefon Diggs and an uncalled pass interference that changed the league's rule book forever, the Saints are back with essentially the same squad as last year minus Mark Ingram, plus Latavius Murray and the loss in catching ability that Ingram learned and Murray doesn't have yet will be made up by new tight end Jared Cook. Expect similar results from a similar roster.
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| USA TODAY Sports Playing catch-up all year long leads to Mike Evans topping the NFL in receiving yards. |
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks 11-5
Los Angeles Rams 9-7
Arizona Cardinals 5-11
San Francisco 49ers 3-13
There are some major unknowns in the NFC West and yet, things could end strikingly similar to last year with everyone sleeping on Seattle again and LA having built a formidable system for the long haul on offense. What causes the Rams to regress and miss the postseason is their quietly lesser offensive line with the losses of center John Sullivan and guard Rodger Saffold. Sean McVay wasn't the only important revelation for Jared Goff and Todd Gurley these past two seasons, the real reason the shift from cellar dweller to contender and Super Bowl participant happened as quickly as it did was a trustworthy line giving the kids (now veterans) room to breathe. The LA defense isn't quite as deep and with the additions of Clay Matthews and Eric Weddle, they just look a little bit older and potentially slower than they did a year ago as well. Seattle just picked up Jadeveon Clowney, an underrated run defender and quality pass rusher that could be the one missing piece that gets them a wildcard or better yet, an advantage over the Rams. The biggest question in Seattle is can Tyler Lockett immediately take over where now-retired WR Doug Baldwin left off? I'm not as concerned about the loss of Earl Thomas since they sneaked into the playoffs without him (due to injury) last season. Can Kliff Kingsbury bring the air raid offense to the NFL with an electrifying rookie quarterback to immediate success? Again, not with that offensive line. The Cardinals defense is also a major issue after being serviceable and more for most of the 2010s with Patrick Peterson now suspended six games. The 49ers did not set the world on fire with Jimmy Garoppolo healthy last season (1-2) but, he should still be a step up from Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard. I'm not as concerned with Kyle Shanahan's ability to run some successful play-actions on offense as I am with Garoppolo and whether or not he can be the first successful post-Patriot Tom Brady backup on another team.
MVP - QB Patrick Mahomes
OPOTY - QB Aaron Rodgers
DPOTY - OLB Von Miller
OROTY - QB Kyler Murray
DROTY - ILB Devin Bush
CoachOTY - Bill Belichick
ComebackPOTY - RB Le'Veon Bell
Passing leader - Ben Roethlisberger
Rushing leader - Ezekiel Elliott
Receiving leader - Mike Evans
1st Coach Fired - Jay Gruden
My Official Super Bowl Prediction
Eagles 34 - Steelers 33
The safest bet is the New England Patriots, duh. That's not fun though. Philadelphia has a starter-quality backup at nearly every position and this is a bet on Carson Wentz staying healthy as that is one of the very few thinner positions on the team. Meanwhile, I'm also betting on Devin Bush being a rare player that transforms the Steelers' defense from good to great as the Ryan Shazier replacement they needed and missed so dearly last season, when they barely missed out on the postseason. This franchise wants to get Ben Roethlisberger one more ring (that'd be 3) and they want to prove themselves right for letting Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown walk. Antonio Brown is kind of proving them in the right already by literally fighting his new front office. The Eagles win this shootout by a missed extra point because the decline in production from Chris Boswell is the one weakness the Steelers did not address this offseason and this will lead to an offseason-long discussion on how important something as random as kicking SHOULD be in the NFL. Ultimately, nothing will change but there seems to be a rising swell of support for just outlawing kickers that I could see becoming a narrative if things get shakier league-wide.
Super Bowl MVP: QB Carson Wentz
May the new season bring everyone quality health and serene locker room chemistry, it's time for some football.
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