AFC East
New England Patriots 12-4
Miami Dolphins 8-8
New York Jets 6-10
Buffalo Bills 3-13
Tom Brady is 41 years old and Ryan Tannehill is 30. They seem to have the same amount of years remaining in the NFL unless Tannehill finally has that breakthrough "I'm a top 10 QB in Adam Gase's offense" season that I could actually see happening given some oldheads drop off (Big Ben, Brady, Rivers, Brees, etc.). The Bills were actively trying to get worse last year, made the playoffs and actively had no idea what they were doing this offseason so, I expect them to regress to the talent levels of their roster. LeSean McCoy's assault case will be the determining factor for just how awful this Buffalo team can get. Sam Darnold never showed me anything that made him worthy of a 1st round pick at USC but, he looked like a completely different quarterback in the preseason and much like Papi LeBatard, "Si, Si, I am very intrigued" in what Darnold will be three years down the road. For now, the Jets are still a young-ish team building for the future (like every other non-Patriot team in the East).
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 10-6
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6
Cincinnati Bengals 5-11
Cleveland Browns 4-12
I've watched Hard Knocks on HBO. The Browns should be fun and entertaining and play some competitive games but, this is not a team going anywhere until they dump half of their fairly new coaching staff, make a backfield to be taken seriously and turn Baker Mayfield into a star. Pittsburgh is always wonky with Ben Roethlisberger's inconsistencies and they will struggle to dominate in the same way they have the past few years if Le'Veon Bell sits out a significant amount of time (I think he plays 6-10 games or gets traded). The biggest downfall for Pittsburgh this year will be the absence of Linebacker Ryan Shazier. T.J. Watt is very good but, they would have had a top 10 defense for sure with Shazier healthy and that's just tragic. I've heard some love for the Bengals recently (LOL) but, that's still Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis's team with VERY few changes (they're the middle-class version of Green Bay's past managerial tactics). Meanwhile, the Ravens are my sleeper pick this offseason after they added three receivers with mixed reviews and at least one successful season in their past (which is something this team never has) in Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead. With the combination of a darling rookie behind him and some serious deep threats for once, Joe Flacco is going to unleash one last bit of elite pigskin tossing before the Ravens dump him on the Giants next offseason for a 1st rounder or something (I'm really all in on the mediocre white quarterbacks this season). That Ravens defense is still quietly very good as well.
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars 11-5
Houston Texans 9-7
Tennessee Titans 8-8
Indianapolis Colts 4-12
The Jaguars still have the NFL's best defense but, I see the Texans as a serious contender for that throne with the addition of safety Tyrann Mathieu (AKA: The Honey Badger) and the return of J.J. Watt (The Wisconsin Badger). The Titans are always a nice sleeper pick but, there are only so many wins I can hand out to the AFC South despite my love for every skill player in Tennessee. Maybe Mike Vrabel just blows a couple of games as a first year head coach, who knows? Speaking of first year coaches, Frank Reich should be able to pull out a second receiver out from under T.Y. Hilton but, what the hell is that backfield? (Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins, Christine Michael?) and what the hell is this defense? (Is Malik Hooker their best defensive player?) Andrew Luck will be fine but, he'll be in catch-up mode all season long and that probably just risks further injury. Stay away from betting on this division until we're in the postseason.
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| USA TODAY Sports Only the roughest of tides are scheduled for Captain Andrew Luck this season. |
Kansas City Chiefs 10-6
Denver Broncos 8-8
Los Angeles Chargers 7-9
Oakland Raiders 3-13
The Raiders payed Jon Gruden $100 million over the next 10 years and I think they'll fire him before the 2019 season begins, THAT is a bold prediction yet not totally unbelievable after "THIS GUY" took this team's chemistry and dipped it in sulfuric acid by sending Khalil Mack to the Bears for no active players a week prior to the season. Good luck trying to pin that one on conservative GM Reggie McKenzie. By the way, are we sure Derek Carr is good? 2016 was great but, everything else I've seen from him has me thinking of a smarter Matt Schaub. Denver still has a majority of their great defenses from years' past and added Bradley Chubb to offset losing Aqib Talib to L.A. The Chiefs are going to be slightly more pass-heavy with Sammy Watkins in town to aide Andy Reid's latest project quarterback in Patrick Mahomes (Who seems extremely McNabb-ian). Show me a healthy Chargers team from anytime over the past decade and you will have shown me a lie.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
Washington 9-7
Dallas Cowboys 8-8
New York Giants 5-11
Ezekiel Elliott possibly playing all 16 games uninterrupted is going under the radar right now and despite their offense getting considerably worse around him, I could still see this Cowboy team sneaking into the postseason if Carson Wentz is out for longer than expected or Washington is unable to find their footing in the backfield without injured RB Derrius Guice. The Eagles just kept getting richer by adding DT Haloti Ngata, DE Michael Bennett, WR Mike Wallace and formerly-injured CB Sidney Jones to a Super Bowl winning roster so, my faith in an NFC East repeat is high as long as Nick Foles starts fewer than five games. The Giants could turn the health of Odell Beckham Jr. into a comeback season for Eli Manning AND they could run Saquon Barkley into the dirt, four yards at a time into a wildcard chase. Unfortunately, they do not have the offensive line for that (like Dallas did two years ago for Elliott's rookie season. I could see this going more like Trent Richardson's still successful rookie season) and Eli Manning's mechanics appear to be just as shot as his brother's were at the end of his career so, they'll be lucky to be in the playoff picture at any point. Washington has one of the most underrated linebacker groups in the league (Ryan Kerrigan, Preston Smith, Zach Brown) and all Alex Smith does at this point is avoid interceptions, run better than Aaron Rodgers and conduct himself as well as you could ask for from a starting quarterback. They are not a playoff team but, Washington will be in it until week 17.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings 13-3
Green Bay Packers 11-5
Chicago Bears 7-9
Detroit Lions 5-11
There is nothing to NOT love about the Vikings right now, coming off an NFC Championship appearance with a better quarterback, a healthy Dalvin Cook and somehow, Sheldon Richardson now on their roster. It helps that their defense was young and awesome last year and should now be hitting their peak, thus making them a top-five defensive lock barring any serious injuries to multiple players. Green Bay tried mixing it up this offseason by actually spending money outside of Wisconsin and by giving short-term, "Prove it" deals to DE Muhammad Wilkerson, TE Jimmy Graham and CB Tramon Williams, they are taking some chances with no serious downfalls as they still have the depth behind these guys (a healthy DE Montravius Adams, TE Marcedes Lewis & Lance Kendricks and CB Jaire Alexander) to not totally drop off as long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy (a major "if" as of late). The Bears will be inconsistent with their defense (now starring Khalil Mack) winning them some games and losing some while QB Mitchell Trubisky finds his footing with Allen Robinson catching balls downfield. The Bears seem very 8-8 with how much potential they have in a post-Khalil Mack trade world but, the floor is still set at 5-11 after last season's lack of depth killed them. Detroit just continues to bore me in every way. Their defense found some flashes of greatness last year but, I can only trust a player that got hurt often at the beginning of his career for so long and Matthew Stafford still has one of the three most inconsistent sets of mechanics among current NFL quarterbacks (Cam Newton and Philip Rivers are the other two). Matt Patricia's last few years in New England do not have me convinced he'll succeed as a head coach either.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints 14-2
Carolina Panthers 11-5
Atlanta Falcons 10-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13
Seemingly every year a defense takes the next step from good to elite and this year, give me the New Orleans Saints. It might be tougher for them to become a top three or five defense with so much of their success depending on 2017 rookies that teams now have film on but, I trust Marcus Williams to bounce back mentally from the Stefon Diggs play that single-handedly killed the Saints' season last year. Carolina is still solid both offensively and defensively and they have now added the magic that is Norv Turner: Offensive Coordinator. His tricks aren't always good for long-term success but, Turner has gotten the best work of Sam Bradford's and Jason Campbell's careers so, hopefully Cam Newton can finally throw consistently accurate passes in his eighth season. The Falcons aren't that different from the same team that went 10-6 last year and Tampa Bay is no longer guaranteeing Jameis Winston the starting quarterback job with Ryan FitzMAGIC behind center during the crab thief's suspension. In other words, take the under on Tampa Bay's 6.5 wins as not even coach Dirk Koetter trusts that team's most important players anymore and Atlanta should not suddenly be a Super Bowl contender just because they added another receiver in Calvin Ridley.
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| Yahoo.com Mike Evans needs to be freed from the football hell that Tampa Bay has been in since his first day in town. |
Los Angeles Rams 12-4
Seattle Seahawks 9-7
Arizona Cardinals 6-10
San Francisco 49ers 4-12
Maybe I'm undervaluing Jimmy Garoppolo but, this 49ers roster looks like a hodgepodge of proven nobodies that was thrown together with their athletic ceilings in mind and no concern for depth whatsoever. I too like what they have been able to do under GM John Lynch but, they will need to see some adversity before they become a playoff contender the way every pundit seems to have them locked in as right now. I also think that Sam Bradford is the best quarterback the Cardinals have had since their Super Bowl run outside of that one Carson Palmer regular season and even if he gets hurt again, Josh Rosen should not be that big of a step down. Along with Bradford, David Johnson is the most versatile non-Le'Veon Bell running back in the game (sorry Todd Gurley) and should keep Arizona's offense in the top 20 for a majority of the season. They won't be awful as long as Larry Fitzgerald, Patrick Peterson, Deonne Bucannon and Chandler Jones are around. The same could be said about Seattle as long as Russell Wilson is as amazingly athletic as he currently is. I just hope that the Seahawks can put together a multi-faceted roster before Wilson is forced into becoming a pocket quarterback (something I could see him equally thriving in). Their defense is very messy right now but, the offense should actually be better as they have a line that stars Duane Brown for an entire season, running backs more likely to rush for at least 300 yards (Literally no Seattle running back eclipsed 300 yards last season) and Brandon Marshall? (does he have anything left? If he does, that'd be awesome). The Rams should remain uncontested as long as health cooperates and thankfully, nobody has made the "Dream Team" statement despite that being the inspiration for all of the acquisitions this team made on that side of the ball this offseason (in all fairness, nobody added onto that early-2010s Eagle team was as good as Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters or even Aqib Talib are right now).
MVP - QB Drew Brees
OPOTY - RB David Johnson
DPOTY - DT Aaron Donald
OROTY - RB Saquon Barkley
DROTY - DE Bradley Chubb
CoachOTY - John Harbaugh
ComebackPOTY - DE J.J. Watt
Passing leader - Drew Brees
Rushing leader - David Johnson
Receiving leader - T.Y. Hilton
1st Coach Fired - Hue Jackson
My Official Super Bowl Prediction
Saints 34 - Texans 17
This year, I did not go through and pick every game the way I had in previous seasons but, that would not have changed how good I feel about these two balanced rosters. Sure, the Houston o-line is atrocious but DeShaun Watson might just be the second-coming of Russell Wilson and that should carry him through the weaker of the two conferences and into the deeper postseason. Meanwhile, the Saints are the more experienced playoff team and I feel have the superior coaching staff that should be able to handle the Watsons, Fullers and even DeAndre Hopkins' of the world while Drew Brees just keeps throwing bombs on the way to a well-earned second championship and an Elway-like ride off into the sunset. I like the poetic happy endings more than the sudden "OMG, Carson Wentz and Nick Foles are both technically Super Bowl Champions" storylines. It's what makes sports so great.
Super Bowl MVP: QB Drew Brees
May your team dodge all injuries and have a fun, competitive season filled with much success!
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