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| Alex Rodriguez's tweet got me thinking... Who WILL win the World Series this year? |
For all of the criticism that this league gets and for all of the rumored changes that commissioner Rob Manfred likes to flirt with every February, not much has changed within the sport and -HOT TAKE ALERT- nothing really needs to change except for the No Fun League-esque mentality of some of the players. Never has it been more obvious which side people should take in the "right way to play baseball" debate than during the World Baseball Classic, when the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico played at such an entertaining level that nobody cared that the game was over four hours long. I don't mind the hatred that players harbor for one another when it comes to a fastball errantly splitting a batter's eyebrows but, just let bat flips be what they are... pure joy in the moment at succeeding in one's profession. I understand that it's impossible to determine the intent of every bat flip but if a pitcher does not like it, then get the hitter out next time and have fun with it. Baseball is fun.
Luckily, we aren't that far away from seeing the drama that a baseball season provides playing out before our eyes. The Cubs have finally won their first world series in 108 years and now, we await sad franchises like San Diego, Milwaukee, Colorado, Tampa Bay and a few others (hopefully Montreal in the coming years) as they all continue to search for their first titles with not even a 108-year old title to reflect on. Chicago and Cleveland seem well prepared for another late-October run but, I'm not so sure we get a sequel that lives up to the 7-game masterpiece of 2016. In fact, we might not get a sequel at all...
Here is how I see the 2017 season unfolding.
AL EAST
Boston Red Sox 93-69
Toronto Blue Jays 89-73
New York Yankees 82-80
Baltimore Orioles 78-84
Tampa Bay Rays 76-86
As a result of acquiring Chris Sale (a pitcher who's arm will fall off dramatically at some point as this is the baseball law in 2017) and rostering a determined comeback candidate in David Price, the greatness of Boston's rotation has been exaggerated ever since they dumped half of their farm system on the White Sox. Luckily, their depth is still fairly respectable with 2016 success stories like Steven Wright and Drew Pomeranz beginning the season in the rotation while team doctors attempt to determine when/if Price can return from his current elbow ailment. John Farrell's team should get by with their offense as all they lost this season was David Ortiz and the arrival of #1 prospect in all of baseball Andrew Benintendi should help in ways that Ortiz never could (speed and fielding ability) while Mitch Moreland tries to provide league-average offense as the 1B/DH in his inaugural season at Fenway. Toronto is still a top 3 fun team in baseball and now, pitching is their strength after replacing Edwin Encarnacion with Kendrys Morales and (more importantly) having a full off-season to work with Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and Francisco Liriano. Liriano is still a wildcard but, his best post-rookie seasons have all come with Russell Martin framing his pitches and that bodes well for a team with wildly unpredictable starters on a year-to-year basis like Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ. The Yankees, Orioles and Rays could all swap positions in the bottom three of this division and it would not shock me. I tend to trust the Yankees because they have the most talent coming up in the form of all those prospects they acquired for veterans last season and I prefer their manager (Joe Girardi) to the man who does not know Zach Britton exists (Buck Schowalter) and Kevin Cash (who after fourth research, I have determined is NOT Joe Maddon).
All-AL East Roster
C - Gary Sanchez (Yankees)
1B - Chris Davis (Orioles)
2B - Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox)
3B - Manny Machado (Orioles)
SS - Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox)
OF - Mookie Betts (Red Sox)
OF - Jose Bautista (Blue Jays)
OF - Adam Jones (Orioles)
DH - Mark Trumbo (Orioles)
Bench/C - Russell Martin (Blue Jays)
Bench/IF - Josh Donaldson (Blue Jays)
Bench/OF - Kevin Kiermaier (Rays)
25th man - Evan Longoria (Rays)
SP1 - Chris Sale (Red Sox)
SP2 - Aaron Sanchez (Blue Jays)
SP3 - David Price (Red Sox) [Assuming Health]
SP4 - Masahiro Tanaka (Yankees)
SP5 - Chris Archer (Rays)
RP - Dellin Betances (Yankees)
RP - Brad Brach (Orioles)
RP - Aroldis Chapman (Yankees)
RP - Alex Colome (Rays)
RP - Craig Kimbrel (Red Sox)
RP - Roberto Osuna (Blue Jays)
Closer - Zach Britton (Orioles)
Division MVP: Mookie Betts will have a tough time fending off the hot corner duo of Machado and Donaldson a second time but, I have to go conservative here and go with the best player on the team I see winning the division.
Division Rookie of the Year: There are only two logical choices here and while the defensive responsibilities may be more impactful from Gary Sanchez, Boston's long-haired OF Andrew Benintendi will end up play I more games and hit for a higher average.
Biggest Injury Risk: The health of David Price is unknown at the moment and could end up costing the Red Sox a trip to the postseason.
Trade Candidate: If things go south in the Bronx, they'll be more than happy to add to their league-best farm system by dealing any and all veterans including reliever Tyler Clippard for example.
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| The Boston Globe Hopefully the Red Sox aren't planning on having any throwback jersey nights with Chris Sale. |
AL CENTRAL
Cleveland Indians 96-66
Detroit Tigers 83-79
Kansas City Royals 81-81
Chicago White Sox 72-90
Minnesota Twins 70-92
The 2016 versions of the White Sox and Twins were both brutal and despite the projected improvement in many young players like Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Jose Berrios for Minnesota and the arrival via trades of super-prospects like Lucas Giolito, Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech for Chicago, the full identity of these rosters are nowhere near as complete as the other three in the division. Cleveland replaced Mike Napoli with Edwin Encarnacion (a slight upgrade) and walks into the season with a healthy rotation for once and kids like Francisco Lindor and Tyler Naquin ready to repeat their 2016 numbers for a trip back to the World Series. Oh yeah, and annual threat to bat .300 Michael Brantley is back. The revenge hype is very real with this squad and Terry Francona is the perfect man to lead a rebound season after a painful loss on the sport's largest stage. Kansas City's voodoo magic ran out last year when they missed the championship for the first time since 2013 and many of their veterans have expiring contracts over the next two years. With the tragic loss of Yordano Ventura and the departure of Edinson Volquez, the Royals' rotation is looking bleaker than any other year over this run under Ned Yost. Not helping their pitching staff was the decision to directly swap All-Star closer Wade Davis for underachieving outfielder Jorge Soler. Detroit did not get any better or worse this off-season and with J.D. Martinez starting out on the DL, they are in risk of having an outfield starring Justin Upton, Tyler Collins and Mikie Mahtook. Redeeming the team is the resurgence of Justin Verlander, the sophomore season of Michael Fulmer and the presence of reliable bats at their advanced age like Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera.
All-AL Central Roster
C - Salvador Perez (Royals)
1B - Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)
2B - Brian Dozier (Twins)
3B - Miguel Sano (Twins)
SS - Francisco Lindor (Indians)
OF - J.D. Martinez (Tigers)
OF - Lorenzo Cain (Royals)
OF - Michael Brantley (Indians)
DH - Carlos Santana (Indians)
Bench/C - James McCann (Tigers)
Bench/IF - Edwin Encarnacion (Indians)
Bench/OF - Justin Upton (Tigers)
25th man - Ian Kinsler (Tigers)
SP1 - Justin Verlander (Tigers)
SP2 - Corey Kluber (Indians)
SP3 - Jose Quintana (White Sox)
SP4 - Danny Salazar (Indians)
SP5 - Carlos Carrasco (Indians)
RP - Kelvin Herrera (Royals)
RP - Nate Jones (White Sox)
RP - Andrew Miller (Indians)
RP - Dan Otero (Indians)
RP - Francisco Rodriguez (Tigers)
RP - Bryan Shaw (Indians)
Closer - Cody Allen (Indians)
Division MVP: If defense were not a thing, Miguel Cabrera would be an easy pick for this award every year. Instead, Francisco Lindor has entered the Cabrera tier with his elite glove and I see the exciting young shortstop maintaining great offensive numbers and being the victor this time around.
Division Rookie of the Year: Acquired for Chris Sale, infielder Yoan Moncada should be promoted sometime before mid-June and does not have much competition for the award outside of his own teammates.
Biggest Injury Risk: Based on the past two seasons, it's Michael Brantley and it's not even close although, if this season is anything like the last, Brantley's health may not be all that important for Cleveland.
Trade Candidate: The White Sox are still actively shopping Jose Quintana as the firesale for a brighter future continues in Chicago.
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| Ken Blaze - USA TODAY Sports Francisco Lindor has quickly become one of the faces of the MLB. |
AL WEST
Seattle Mariners 94-68
Houston Astros 88-74
Texas Rangers 86-76
Oakland Athletics 75-87
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 72-90
The most wide open playoff spot in the American League is in the AL West. Houston and Texas have each won the division the last two seasons when the opposite team was favored to win each time. That's why I avoided those two and took the Mariners again for the second time in three years. Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto spent the off-season rebuilding their bench and replacing many of their role players with younger or higher-upside players like outfielder Mitch Haniger taking the Adam Lind at-bats. The rotation is shaky now with Yovani Gallardo added to the back end along with the unpredictable southpaw Drew Smyly. The decline of Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma won't be as dramatic as everyone seems to feel it should be and Jean Segura is much better than Ketel Marte. Texas may never get a 30-homer season out of Joey Gallo but, at least Jurickson Profar is finally healthy and will be starting in left while Shin-Soo Choo takes a backseat defensively. I'm not too high on Texas because I don't see Rougned Odor or Elvis Andrus producing much without walking. Also, Yu Darvish might be a Cy Young candidate but, that doesn't just erase whatever it is they're doing with the back of that rotation (Tyson Ross? Andrew Cashner? A.J. Griffin?). Oakland and Anaheim aren't real competitors whether Sonny Gray and Garrett Richards bounce back or not. Sadly, another terrific season from Mike Trout will not result in a playoff run for the aging Angels.
All-AL West Roster
C - Jonathan Lucroy (Rangers)
1B - Mike Napoli (Rangers)
2B - Jose Altuve (Astros)
3B - Kyle Seager (Mariners)
SS - Carlos Correa (Astros)
OF - Mike Trout (Angels)
OF - George Springer (Astros)
OF - Kole Calhoun (Angels)
DH - Nelson Cruz (Mariners)
Bench/C - Brian McCann (Astros)
Bench/IF - Robinson Cano (Mariners)
Bench/OF - Khris Davis (Athletics)
25th man - Adrian Beltre (Rangers)
SP1 - Yu Darvish (Rangers)
SP2 - Cole Hamels (Rangers)
SP3 - Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
SP4 - Garrett Richards (Angels)
SP5 - James Paxton (Mariners)
RP - Matt Bush (Rangers)
RP - Sam Dyson (Rangers)
RP - Ken Giles (Astros)
RP - Will Harris (Astros)
RP - Jeremy Jeffress (Rangers)
RP - Ryan Madson (Athletics)
Closer - Edwin Diaz (Mariners)
Division MVP: If it's not Mike Trout then he must have had a DL stint or Jose Altuve broke the single-season hits record.
Division Rookie of the Year: A's pitcher Jharel Cotton impressed with his 2.15 ERA over 5 September starts in 2016 and might just be the club's ace with Gray becoming a shell of himself.
Biggest Injury Risk: Garrett Richards dodged Tommy John surgery but, a torn UCL doesn't just go away and even if he narrowly avoids re-injury, his diminished performance might put him on Dr. James Andrews' list.
Trade Candidate: The Angels aren't competing this year and a team in need of a third baseman with a high floor wouldn't mind Yunel Escobar.
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| Rick Yeatts - Getty Images In his first full season since 2014, I expect big things from Yu Darvish. |
Before we continue to the National League, here's a look at my long-running keeper league fantasy baseball team that is the greatest roster of players I'm feeling good about this year that will probably finish in sixth out of eight teams.
THE SOLER SYSTEM
C - Russell Martin & Cameron Rupp
1B - Matt Carpenter, Evan Gattis (DH), Paul Goldschmidt, Mike Napoli
2B - Jason Kipnis, Joe Panik, Devon Travis
3B - Manny Machado, Mike Moustakas, Miguel Sano
SS - Brandon Crawford, Aledmys Diaz, Matt Duffy
OF - Andrew Benintendi, Ryan Braun, Lewis Brinson, Kole Calhoun, Adam Eaton, Starling Marte, Yasiel Puig, Jorge Soler, Mark Trumbo
SP - Yu Darvish, Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw, Carlos Martinez, Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman
RP - Aroldis Chapman
It's a fun team in a complicated league where defense counts and I'm coming off a sixth place finish sooooo yeah..... now onto the National League!
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| AP Photo Andrew Benintendi was my first round pick (#3 overall) in this year's draft. |
NL EAST
Washington Nationals 100-62
New York Mets 85-77
Miami Marlins 80-82
Atlanta Braves 78-84
Philadelphia Phillies 68-94
While I was extremely hesitant to jump on board the Nationals' bandwagon last season because of Dusty Baker, I am all in on D.C. this season because Adam Eaton is a better baseball player than Daniel Murphy. Murphy was an MVP candidate for a majority of the 2016 season and Eaton is already a .280 hitter with 20-20 potential and an elite glove. I'd prefer Eaton in right field to center but, when a team has Bryce Harper staying healthy in right field, you really can't fault them for taking a slight hit defensively comparable to their potential. Washington still has a top five major league rotation as well and Dusty can't ruin that. Terry Collins has become public enemy #1 in New York only two years removed from a World Series appearance. The Mets manager has a tough road ahead with Matt Harvey and Steven Matz having recently suffered from scary arm injuries. Miami's starting rotation is depressing with Jose Fernandez gone and Wei-Yin Chen now set to start opening day. Atlanta is underrated because Bartolo Colon, Brandon Phillips and Jaime Garcia are all known, reliable pieces with mediocre-at-worst production. In addition to that, Dansby Swanson is a future star and should add on a few wins to their 2016 total of 68. Philly is slightly overrated due to their uprising of young talent that includes zero elite prospects so far. Sure, Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Vincent Velasquez and Maikel Franco are all nice but, every one of them has gone through some growing pains that have me skeptical as to whether or not they can all pull it together for a full season.
All-NL East Roster
C - J.T. Realmuto (Marlins)
1B - Freddie Freeman (Braves)
2B - Daniel Murphy (Nationals)
3B - Maikel Franco (Phillies)
SS - Trea Turner (Nationals)
OF - Bryce Harper (Nationals)
OF - Yoenis Cespedes (Mets)
OF - Giancarlo Stanton (Marlins)
DH - Christian Yelich (Marlins)
Bench/C - Matt Wieters (Nationals)
Bench/IF - Anthony Rendon (Nationals)
Bench/OF - Adam Eaton (Nationals)
25th man - Matt Kemp (Braves)
SP1 - Noah Syndergaard (Mets)
SP2 - Max Scherzer (Nationals)
SP3 - Stephen Strasburg (Nationals)
SP4 - Julio Teheran (Braves)
SP5 - Jacob deGrom (Mets)
RP - Kyle Barraclough (Marlins)
RP - Shawn Kelley (Nationals)
RP - David Phelps (Marlins)
RP - A.J. Ramos (Marlins)
RP - Addison Reed (Mets)
RP - Brad Ziegler (Marlins)
Closer - Jeurys Familia (Mets)
Division MVP: The deepest division of outfielders will seem even deeper once 2016 proves to be the fluke in Bryce Harper's career of greatness.
Division Rookie of the Year: He might not be Atlanta's own version of Turner but, Dansby Swanson is going to hit quite well and might even be the lone bright spot in Atlanta's lineup.
Biggest Injury Risk: I'm not convinced Jacob deGrom's minor arm issue last season will just magically disappear and God forbid it does reappear, then the Mets are in rough shape and Collins' job might actually be in jeopardy.
Trade Candidate: If things go south for the Braves and Jaime Garcia is still healthy, they should not keep him one minute after the deadline because his value will never be higher.
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| AP Photo/Alex Brandon Trea Turner put up Trout-like numbers in his first half-season in the big leagues. |
NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs 97-65
St. Louis Cardinals 84-78
Pittsburgh Pirates 79-83
Milwaukee Brewers 76-86
Cincinnati Reds 65-97
The most unanimously agreed upon division winners this year are the Chicago Cubs and with good reason, they're a fantastic baseball team with depth for days (slightly less than last year), the best manager in baseball and no holes until Jason Heyward bats .220 or worse. The Cardinals would be in far better shape had Alex Reyes not needed Tommy John surgery and now, Michael Wacha gets one last opportunity to stay in St. Louis's rotation long-term. Otherwise, their offense is around league average and their pitching staff does not have the depth or flash that they have owned every year for decades. Pittsburgh loses steam if/when Gerrit Cole struggles and Jung Ho Kang is more likely to spend time behind bars this season than in the Pirates' infield. Cincinnati and Milwaukee are not actively trying to win so, don't let a winning record in April distract you from these two teams not being any good.
All-NL Central Roster
C - Willson Contreras (Cubs)
1B - Anthony Rizzo (Cubs)
2B - Ben Zobrist (Cubs)
3B - Kris Bryant (Cubs)
SS - Addison Russell (Cubs)
OF - Ryan Braun (Brewers)
OF - Andrew McCutchen (Pirares)
OF - Starling Marte (Pirates)
DH - Joey Votto (Reds)
Bench/C - Yadier Molina (Cardinals)
Bench/IF - Jonathan Villar (Brewers)
Bench/OF - Dexter Fowler (Cardinals)
25th man - Kyle Schwarber (Cubs)
SP1 - Jon Lester (Cubs)
SP2 - Kyle Hendricks (Cubs)
SP3 - Jake Arrieta (Cubs)
SP4 - Carlos Martinez (Cardinals)
SP5 - John Lackey (Cubs)
RP - Neftali Feliz (Brewers)
RP - Raisel Iglesias (Reds)
RP - Seung-Hwan Oh (Cardinals)
RP - Felipe Rivero (Pirates)
RP - Pedro Strop (Cubs)
RP - Tony Watson (Pirates)
Closer - Wade Davis (Cubs)
Division MVP: Whichever Cub ends up being responsible for the most runs created will end up winning this award. In other words, it's down to the corner infielders and I'll take Kris Bryant over Rizzo.
Division Rookie of the Year: No other rookies are locks for playing time like Pirates' starting 1B Josh Bell so, he's the only safe choice for NLC ROTY.
Biggest Injury Risk: The Reds had the worst bullpen in MLB history last season and Raisel Iglesias is the only reliever worth trusting and that team. Iglesias hurt his hip in the shower last week. History might be doomed to repeat itself if Iglesias misses any amount of time.
Trade Candidate: Brewer fans are salivating at the idea of not having to carry Ryan Braun's contract into his late thirties. GM David Stearns will likely push for a deal earlier than July 31st.
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| Ron Chenoy - USA TODAY Sports 2017 will either be a comeback season or a "please go away" season for Andrew McCutchen. |
NL WEST
Los Angeles Dodgers 89-73
Colorado Rockies 87-75
San Francisco Giants 86-76
Arizona Diamondbacks 75-87
San Diego Padres 55-107
Jhoulys Chacin is the Padres' opening day starting pitcher, which is a very minute detail contributing to the larger picture of these Padres having one of the worst opening day rosters I have ever seen. Good luck trying to decipher who is in and out of San Diego's rotation right now. The Giants are not all that different from a year ago, only upgrading at closer. The Dodgers are also in a similar state as they were last season, only bringing in Logan Forsythe from Tampa Bay. The big changes in this division were the Rockies getting many of their young arms up (finally) and signing now-injured Ian Desmond to play first base somehow plus the D-Backs cleaning the garbage out of their front office. Arizona will be trusting Brandon Drury to replace 2016 NL hits leader Jean Segura and while he may never reach 200+ hits in a season, I do see Drury being a consistent contributor in his current role or even at other positions as he was previously a utility man of sorts. The blue-striped D-Backs are missing 90% of a respectable pitching staff but, are off to a good start with Zack Greinke and Taijuan Walker.
All-NL West Roster
C - Buster Posey (Giants)
1B - Paul Goldschmidt (Diamondbacks)
2B - D.J. LeMahieu (Rockies)
3B - Nolan Arenado (Rockies)
SS - Corey Seager (Dodgers)
OF - A.J. Pollock (Diamondbacks)
OF - Charlie Blackmon (Rockies)
OF - Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies)
DH - Wil Myers (Padres)
Bench/C - Yasmani Grandal (Dodgers)
Bench/IF - Brandon Crawford (Giants)
Bench/OF - Yasmany Tomas (Diamondbacks)
25th man - Brandon Belt (Giants)
SP1 - Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)
SP2 - Madison Bumgarner (Giants)
SP3 - Johnny Cueto (Giants)
SP4 - Kenta Maeda (Dodgers)
SP5 - Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks)
RP - Pedro Baez (Dodgers)
RP - Ryan Buchter (Padres)
RP - Brad Hand (Padres)
RP - Brandon Maurer (Padres)
RP - Mark Melancon (Giants)
RP - Sergio Romo (Dodgers)
Closer - Kenley Jansen (Dodgers)
Division MVP: No pitcher in baseball is more valuable than Clayton Kershaw.
Division Rookie of the Year: The Padres have two huge outfield prospects in minor-leaguer Manuel Margot and starting right fielder Hunter Renfroe. Despite their general awfulness, Renfroe will show plenty of promise and win this fake award.
Biggest Injury Risk: I am surprisingly high on Arizona outfielder A.J. Pollock, a man who played twelve games last season.
Trade Candidate: Once they realize how unlikely a trip to the playoffs are, the Diamondbacks will shop Zack Greinke if he's performing up to his contract.
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| Isaiah J. Downing - USA TODAY Sports Colorado is bound to surprise a few people with Nolan Arenado leading the way. |
POSTSEASON PICKS
Wildcard Games
Houston over Toronto
San Francisco over Colorado
First Round
Washington over San Francisco
Cubs over Los Angeles
Cleveland over Houston
Seattle over Boston
Second Round
Washington over Cubs
Cleveland over Seattle
World Series
Cleveland over Washington in 5.
I don't understand why I enjoy being so wrong but, somebody had to break up the obvious Cubs-Indians rematch that everyone and their mothers have chosen. I love the Nationals on paper and I need to see Bryce Harper in a World Series before he leaves in 2018. Cleveland was missing 2/5ths of their starting rotation and still took the Cubs to a game 7 last year so, they seem like the safest World Series bet in a long time. With Michael Brantley healthy and a slight upgrade at a position they were already doing pretty well at (first base), they should coast through much of the season and with the Nationals always blowing it somehow, I see the series ending disappointingly quick.
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| Phil Long - Associated Press Terry Francona's third championship is within reach. |
I hope everyone is as ecstatic and eager for Opening Day(s) as I am this Sunday and Monday and may your team sustain their health and performance all season long.
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