AL East
Toronto Blue Jays 91-71
Boston Red Sox 89-73
New York Yankees 84-78
Tampa Bay Rays 77-85
Baltimore Orioles 74-88
Toronto should be the easy lock for first place in the AL East when looking at their offense. The problem I have with them is entirely based on the pitching staff. Yes, Marcus Stroman is a very nice player about to break into the ace tier of pitchers but, with midseason pickup David Price no longer up north, the rest of the rotation is very suspect. R.A. Dickey has been mediocre since his Cy Young season of 2012 and the ERA should be north of 4.00 during this, his age-41 season and Marco Estrada's 2015 seems more like a fluke than a sign of things to come. The same could be said for J.A. Happ and his miraculous three month stint in Pittsburgh (1.85 ERA/1.03 WHIP/5.31 K:BB ratio compared to his career 4.13 ERA/1.37 WHIP/2.15 K:BB). The bullpen took a small step backward as well after losing deadline acquisitions LaTroy Hawkins and Mark Lowe along with Liam Hendriks. Jesse Chavez will be good for some spot starts and Drew Storen is an underrated closer so, the bullpen should be fine as stands but there are some weaknesses on this team to exploit. Boston returns to contention after two losing seasons thanks to the additions of a perennial All Star in David Price and another perennial All Star in the bullpen in Craig Kimbrel. Mookie Betts is going to be the anchor of this offense now that "Big Papi" David Ortiz is retiring at the end of the year and with Xander Bogaerts still in his early twenties and not making a huge salary, the Sox have just about made up for the Hanley Ramirez/Pablo Sandoval desperation spending spree of 2015. Losing Greg Bird for the season before it even began ruined any hope in my mind that the Yankees might make the division more intriguing than a two-horse race. Joe Girardi's club finally has a decent rotation again (Tanaka, Pineda, Eovaldi, Severino, Sabathia) but any injuries to this fragile lineup will leave them mighty thin. Tampa Bay is Tampa Bay meaning they will always appear to be a .500 team and then finish as serious overachievers. That WAS the case when Joe Maddon was still managing the club but, this is Kevin Cash's team now and maybe, just maybe this team will stick around .500 for a third consecutive season after four seasons of ninety wins from 2010-2013. Baltimore is a bizarre collection of players that would be great if anybody not named Manny Machado were about to have their best seasons. The Orioles decided to stock up on power hitters by signing Pedro Alvarez right before Spring Training and by paying Mark Trumbo $9.5 million to hit Trumbombs and play in right field at least at a mediocre level. Chris Davis is still all or nothing and now they have three different versions of him. Adam Jones is at the end of his prime and it would not shock anyone to see him take a small step back statistically this year. If none of that gets you down on the Orioles, maybe their rotation of once-good Chris Tillman, average Yovani Gallardo, once-good Ubaldo Jimenez, average Miguel Gonzalez and glorified long reliever Kevin Gausman will kill their playoff aspirations in 2016.
Fake Awards!!!
Division MVP: Bold 2015-call-gone-right Toronto 3B Josh Donaldson.
Division Rookie of the Year: Yankees Starting Pitcher Luis Severino.
Division Cy Young Award: Right now Red Sock David Price is the only Cy Young contender in the division and Marcus Stroman is his only real competition in the division unless the Rays' Drew Smyly pitches like he did at the end of 2014.
The Sudden Collapse Award: Rays Third Baseman Evan Longoria. Call it a hunch, it would certainly be a surprising collapse.
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| Nick Turchiaro - USA TODAY Sports If healthy, the Shortstop fully known as "Troy Tulowitzki if healthy" will lead Toronto back into the playoffs. |
AL Central
Kansas City Royals 88-74
Minnesota Twins 85-77
Detroit Tigers 81-81
Cleveland Indians 79-83
Chicago White Sox 73-89
After a full season and a half of sitting in first place, I finally bought into Kansas City when they acquired Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist for their second World Series run in two years. This Ned Yost-lead team has somehow won a World Series now and the pressure to win one is off with most of the same roster as last season. With Zobrist and Cueto gone, more will be asked of players like Christian Colon and Chris Young (the Pitcher). The team also lost smaller impact guys like Ryan Madson (a easily replaceable bullpen piece) and Alex Rios (coming off of his worst season) and replaced them with the returning Joakim Soria (160 saves from 2007-2011 as a Royal) and a platoon of Jarrod Dyson/Paulo Orlando (both backups last year). The team is definitely not going to be as good as last year but, the World Series winners never NEED to be just as good to repeat, they just need to avoid a drastic drop-off. The Twins are on the upswing now with Byron Buxton hopefully finding his batting eye this year, Miguel Sano trying out Right Field while learning how to hit sliders (Sanoman's kryptonite) and Eddie Rosario surprising everybody by putting up the numbers that the team thought they'd be getting from Buxton. The pitching staff is the same as it has been for a while now. One average starter with high upside (Phil Hughes), a homegrown talent that has not reached his potential just yet (Kyle Gibson), a veteran innings eater (Ervin Santana), one lefty who won't last the whole year in this rotation (Tommy Milone) and Ricky Nolasco for some reason. Tyler Duffey will pitch in the majors this year and will need to keep up his short stint of awesomeness that made him a favorite to land a rotation spot. Minnesota finished with 83 wins last season so it wouldn't be inconceivable to see them take the next step into October. Detroit spent big money this offseason but, did not fix their rotation enough to prevent Matt Boyd and zombie Mike Pelfrey from having a real shot at the starting rotation. The Tigers also went out of their way to pay Justin Upton for the next six years at big money after his lowest batting average (.251) since 2008. Victor Martinez should be healthier than he was in 2015 but, at 39 years old, it's unlikely we ever see 2014 V-Mart ever again. Justin Verlander had a bounce-back post-All Star break and the team has him listed as the #1 starter even though they signed former National Jordan Zimmermann through his age-35 season. Francisco Rodriguez is exactly what this team needed last season when they were relying on Joakim Soria to help them make a push for the postseason (something they failed to achieve). Cleveland's pitching staff gets plenty of hype but, the whole threesome of Salazar-Kluber-Carrasco has yet to put together a full season of all three reaching their potential. The lineup gets plenty stronger the moment Michael Brantley steps his feet back on Progressive Field. Trevor Bauer is a lost cause. Speaking of lost causes, the White Sox are still trotting out John Danks even though his mid-to-high 4's ERA has stayed through this new pitching-era. Carlos Rodon was picked second overall in 2014 and now, the hope is that he can turn in at minimum a Jose Quintana-type performance soon. Todd Frazier was a great pickup and who knows? maybe dumping Adam LaRoche unintentionally will only be a positive on the field for this team that is still being over-controlled by Kenny Williams. They are the thinnest team depth-wise in the division though and that is why I have this team in last.
Fake Awards
Division MVP: Kind of hard to bet against Miguel Cabrera even with his minor decline last season.
Division Rookie of the Year: Still technically a rookie, Byron Buxton has had a full offseason to work on that .209/.250/.326 line.
Division Cy Young Award: Last year should have been close to a repeat of the previous season for 2014 AL Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. He'll have better luck this year... maybe.
The Sudden Collapse Award: A collapse for Wade Davis is a 3.50 ERA. I'll take that bet in his first season as the Royals' Closer.
AL West
Houston Astros 98-64
Texas Rangers 95-67
Seattle Mariners 83-79
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 78-84
Oakland Athletics 68-94
Houston has barely touched the surface of the awesome team they can become with 1B A.J. Reed waiting for that midseason call-up. Carlos Gomez is in a contract season and that will influence his desire to perform at an MVP-level if a possible World Series run isn't enough. The team is the deepest in the major leagues (outside of St. Louis and maybe the Cubs) in terms of talent that can impact this season and it will take more than a few bumps and bruises to knock them out of first place this year. George Springer will be fully healthy for the first time since his explosive rookie season and Carlos Correa is already the game's best Shortstop. They seem like the obvious AL favorites but, Kansas City has outperformed expectations every year under Ned Yost. Texas made a trade that shocked most of the baseball universe when they seemingly dealt half of their farm system to Philadelphia for Cole Hamels. That trade proved to be enough to catapult them into the playoffs even without Yu Darvish. Losing Yovani Gallardo's fluky best season will hurt their chances at winning the division (as will Darvish's slow return from Tommy John Surgery) but, Jeff Bannister and the rest of the coaching staff have had a full six months to work with Joey Gallo on his plate discipline and nobody knows what might become of one time #1 prospect Jurickson Profar after missing about two full seasons. The lineup also now includes Left Fielder Ian Desmond and that's not a typo, that's just what he does now. My point is that this team has more going for it than Cole Hamels now but, they will need some players to seriously alter their games in order to win the division and not every one of those darts is going to hit the bullseye. Seattle is, as always, a weird mix of characters on offense that now includes Adam Lind, Chris Iannetta and the underrated Nori Aoki. The pitching staff has also been the same for years now as Felix Hernandez is still king (despite whispers of a decline on the horizon), Hisashi Iwakuma is reliable (at least he was until the Dodgers refused to agree to a multi-year deal with him thanks to a failed physical) and then there's the collection of three or four young guns that usually produces one decent season, one good-yet-injury-filled season and a dud. The only noticeable difference for this team's pitching staff is that no longer will they need to rely on Fernando Rodney for saves as Steve Cishek takes over the role for the foreseeable future. Time will tell on how much of a difference new manager Scott Servais is from Lloyd McClendon. The Angels still have Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and C.J. Cron and added Andrelton Simmons but, outside of that this supporting cast is the worst they've ever had around the best player in baseball. Oakland remains an enigma after demoting Jesse Hahn and totally redoing their infield around Marcus Semien AGAIN. Neither team requires much of the nation's attention this season.
Fake Awards
Division MVP: I probably shouldn't pick against Mike Trout until he retires but, we all saw what Carlos Correa did last season and now he gets to do that over a whole season. -shivers-
Division Rookie of the Year: I've already invested a lot into him in fantasy so why not A.J. Reed? No, no, you sit down Tyler White, you are not wanted here.
Division Cy Young Award: It's unlikely that Cole Hamels or Felix Hernandez have Cy Young-caliber seasons with their best years behind them (not that they are total garbage in 2016). Dallas Keuchel is the safe pick here after he won the actual AL Cy Young last season.
The Sudden Collapse Award: There's a reason the Dodgers did not sign Hisashi Iwakuma. It's just not going to be his best season.
NL East
New York Mets 100-62
Washington Nationals 85-77
Miami Marlins 82-80
Philadelphia Phillies 67-95
Atlanta Braves 53-109
There is not really a fifteen game difference between the Mets and Nationals. However, there is a big difference between Terry Collins and Dusty Baker (WHY IS HE BACK IN THE LEAGUE?) especially one year after Collins' team went to the World Series. The Mets rotation is only getting stronger with time as Zack Wheeler will return some time before the playoffs and likely join the best rotation in baseball of Harvey-deGrom-Syndergaard-Matz. They also have great outfield depth with young future star Michael Conforto, proven power hitter Curtis Granderson and MVP candidate Yoenis Cespedes with Gold Glover Juan Lagares and Alejandro de Aza. Neil Walker replaces Daniel Murphy and Asdrubal Cabrera will give their lineup some needed energy that went missing any time they had to use Reuben Tejada. The Nationals chose to keep Jonathan Papelbon over Drew Storen because they are a chaos organization and lost Jordan Zimmermann as an innings eater. Tanner Roark will be a full-time starter again one season after mediocre results in the bullpen and he will join Joe Ross in the rotation as they try to make up for the losses of Zimmermann and Doug Fister. The offense should be about the same as last season even though this team should really bring up Trea Turner as soon as possible to be their Shortstop of the future. The team doesn't look that different on paper but, team chemistry is a very real thing and I don't see a collection that includes Baker, Papelbon, Murphy and Bryce Harper getting along for some reason. Jose Fernandez is back and Wei-Yin Chen is now under contract for five years so the pitching will be dramatically better this year compared to last even with Carter Capps on the DL thanks to Tommy John surgery. Giancarlo Stanton might play over 100 games this year and the Marlins might even get a fully productive season out of Marcell Ozuna for once. The Phillies are certainly more optimistic than in recent years with J.P. Crawford, Nick Williams and Jorge Alfaro waiting their turns in the minors as the big league club only has a few killer contracts left (Carlos Ruiz & Ryan Howard). Philly will still be of poor quality this season but, they should not be the low man on the totem pole in this division. I have the Atlanta Braves finishing an incredibly awful 53-109 because their rotation is the inconsistent Julio Teheran and a bunch of hasbeens that includes Bud Norris. The offense does feature reliable trade assets like Erik Aybar and Nick Markakis but will be totally reliant on Freddie Freeman again post-deadline. This team is also trusting a man named Adonis at third base and the 31-year old Hector Olivera as their every day Right Fielder with barely a sniff of the major leagues up to this point. They are not trying to be playoff contenders this season and should just hold off on ruining Aaron Blair and Sean Newcomb's arms for 2017 at least.
Fake Awards
Division MVP: Cespedes isn't going to replicate last season but, Bryce Harper probably can and will.
Division Rookie of the Year: Since we've already seen him pitch well in the postseason, I like Steven Matz upsetting Trea Turner for this award.
Division Cy Young Award: After what I saw from him late last season, I find it hard to pick anyone other than Max Scherzer in the best pitching division in all of baseball.
The Sudden Collapse Award: Dusty Baker is going to overuse Ben Revere to the point where it makes him a lesser player due to fatigue.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs 102-60
Pittsburgh Pirates 94-68
St. Louis Cardinals 89-73
Milwaukee Brewers 70-92
Cincinnati Reds 69-93
This is finally the Cubs' year. By that, I mean they'll win this division for the first time since Lou Piniella was in charge of the 97-win 2008 squad. Along with the talent that started to put it all together last year, the team has added Ben Zobrist, John Lackey and Jason Heyward while only losing some replaceable bullpen arms and Starlin Castro. Everybody wants to fear the predictable collapse of this team after 108 years of no rings and supposed curses. Guess what everyone, it's not going down that way anymore. They might not win it this year but Theo Epstein has built a team that will last another five years near the top of the standings and they aren't getting out of there without one ring. Of course the Cardinals are still around and present a great challenge for the Cubs but, they lost some of their depth this offseason when they dealt Jon Jay for Jedd Gyorko (for some reason) and when they lost their Right Fielder (Heyward), thus forcing Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty into everyday roles. This won't necessarily destroy this modern day evil empire but, the slightly lesser bullpen and loss of Lance Lynn to TJ surgery surely do not help them in any way. The Pirates have been known to rejuvenate veteran pitchers' careers (see: Francisco Liriano, Jeff Locke, J.A. Happ & A.J. Burnett) so don't be surprised if they manage to turn somebody like Juan Nicasio or Jon Niese into an all-star instead of finally calling up one of the trio of great pitching prospects they have (Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon and Nick Kingham). The Pirates also have one of the better outfields in the National League with Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen and the slightly overrated Gregory Polanco. Overall, I'd say most of their success is dependent on how well Francisco Cervelli plays (both offensively and defensively) and if he can match his career year of 2015. The Brewers and Reds are in tanking mode with Cincy "leading" in last as the team still needs to deal Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce for prospects in order to start the total rebuild that they have only partially begun. The rotation is all kids until Homer Bailey returns from injury (likely in May) and the bullpen does not have anywhere near the depth it did this time last year. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has publicly admitted that they are in a total rebuilding situation and has acquired some nice talent to help them not be totally embarrassing to the state of Wisconsin. Players like Jonathan Villar, Chris Carter and the now-injured Rymer Liriano were acquired as former prospects turned "mehh" major leaguers getting their second chances to shine and will either boost their trade values or get kicked to the curb once players like Orlando Arcia, Brett Phillips and first-rounder Trent Clark are ready for the big leagues. The pitching staff looks grossly emaciated with Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson as the only rays of hope right now while Wily Peralta will likely continue to disappoint and Matt Garza slowly disintegrates into nothing but an evil goatee.
Fake Awards
Division MVP: Cubs Third Baseman Kris Bryant.
Division Rookie of the Year: Pick a Red, any Red. Jose Peraza seems like a bold call but with the uncertainty in so much of the Reds' lineup and Peraza's multi-position eligibility, he could sneak his way into some major playing time.
Division Cy Young Award: Gerrit Cole will steal Jake Arrieta's throne this year and should be a very fun match-up all year long.
The Sudden Collapse Award: After leading the league in saves, Mark Melancon will lose the job sometime this season.
NL West
San Francisco Giants 96-66
Los Angeles Dodgers 92-70
Arizona Diamondbacks 88-74
Colorado Rockies 75-87
San Diego Padres 71-91
The Giants have done a phenomenal job with pitchers, infielders, keeping Buster Posey and pretty much everything this decade. Bruce Bochy is clearly on his way to the hall of fame and just in case baseball fans aren't convinced of this yet, watch Joe Panik become an All-Star or Jeff Samardzija drop his ERA into the 2.50-2.99 range again. Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong are finally gone and their struggles with wild inconsistency left with them, convincing the Giants to empty their pockets on former All-Stars Samardzija and Johnny Cueto. The Giants' offense is basically the same only, now featuring Denard Span (a small upgrade over Norichika Aoki). Los Angeles fired Don Mattingly after failing to advance past the first round again and swapped him out for a younger player-turned-first-time-manager Dave Roberts. The excitement around Dodgers Stadium this year is Shortstop Corey Seager playing everyday as he is being hailed as the #1 prospect in baseball while the team still has the #1 pitcher in all of baseball (Clayton Kershaw) and the least predictable/most intriguing player in baseball (Yasiel Puig). Zack Greinke's departure may have instigated panic that LA's already struggling rotation of non-Kershaws would be a major problem. After not signing Hisashi Iwakuma and not trading for Aroldis Chapman, the team has settled on 27-year old Japanese import Kenta Maeda, former three-time all-star Scott Kazmir and a collection of organizational talent. Their pitching crisis has been averted. The Diamondbacks made seemingly insane deals these past twelve months like dealing away first-round picks Touki Toussaint and Dansby Swanson for Shelby Miller and Phil Gosselin. They want to win this year and put themselves in a solid position for a winning record for at least 2016 but, they are absolutely boned after this season. Signing Greinke and Tyler Clippard to the pitching staff will help immensely as will having a fully healthy Patrick Corbin but, is all of that really enough to take out the Dodgers stacked organization or the Giants' constant brilliance in creating valuable assets. Why do the Rockies play in Colorado? As dumb a question as that is, it has prevented any pitchers from the organization to find their groove and put together great careers thanks to that lovely, confusing, nauseating altitude. Not to mention, they have a terrible front office and are owned by the most annoying owners in baseball. The Padres went from spending all of their money on big names last offseason to just retaining James Shields from that large group they brought in for a disappointing 2015 finish. The 2016 Padres are caught somewhere between rebuilding and contending and as has been proven time and time again, this type of team always ends up missing out on the latter and instead dealing veterans like Derek Norris and James Shields for a brighter future among other things.
Fake Awards
Division MVP: The obvious safe choice is Diamondbacks 1B Paul Goldschmidt.
Division Rookie of the Year: The obvious safe choice is Dodgers SS Corey Seager.
Division Cy Young Award: The obvious safe choice is Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw.
The Sudden Collapse Award: I hate killing off good comeback stories but Scott Kazmir will be below average this season.
PLAYOFFS?!!!
Wildcard Games
After a full season and a half of sitting in first place, I finally bought into Kansas City when they acquired Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist for their second World Series run in two years. This Ned Yost-lead team has somehow won a World Series now and the pressure to win one is off with most of the same roster as last season. With Zobrist and Cueto gone, more will be asked of players like Christian Colon and Chris Young (the Pitcher). The team also lost smaller impact guys like Ryan Madson (a easily replaceable bullpen piece) and Alex Rios (coming off of his worst season) and replaced them with the returning Joakim Soria (160 saves from 2007-2011 as a Royal) and a platoon of Jarrod Dyson/Paulo Orlando (both backups last year). The team is definitely not going to be as good as last year but, the World Series winners never NEED to be just as good to repeat, they just need to avoid a drastic drop-off. The Twins are on the upswing now with Byron Buxton hopefully finding his batting eye this year, Miguel Sano trying out Right Field while learning how to hit sliders (Sanoman's kryptonite) and Eddie Rosario surprising everybody by putting up the numbers that the team thought they'd be getting from Buxton. The pitching staff is the same as it has been for a while now. One average starter with high upside (Phil Hughes), a homegrown talent that has not reached his potential just yet (Kyle Gibson), a veteran innings eater (Ervin Santana), one lefty who won't last the whole year in this rotation (Tommy Milone) and Ricky Nolasco for some reason. Tyler Duffey will pitch in the majors this year and will need to keep up his short stint of awesomeness that made him a favorite to land a rotation spot. Minnesota finished with 83 wins last season so it wouldn't be inconceivable to see them take the next step into October. Detroit spent big money this offseason but, did not fix their rotation enough to prevent Matt Boyd and zombie Mike Pelfrey from having a real shot at the starting rotation. The Tigers also went out of their way to pay Justin Upton for the next six years at big money after his lowest batting average (.251) since 2008. Victor Martinez should be healthier than he was in 2015 but, at 39 years old, it's unlikely we ever see 2014 V-Mart ever again. Justin Verlander had a bounce-back post-All Star break and the team has him listed as the #1 starter even though they signed former National Jordan Zimmermann through his age-35 season. Francisco Rodriguez is exactly what this team needed last season when they were relying on Joakim Soria to help them make a push for the postseason (something they failed to achieve). Cleveland's pitching staff gets plenty of hype but, the whole threesome of Salazar-Kluber-Carrasco has yet to put together a full season of all three reaching their potential. The lineup gets plenty stronger the moment Michael Brantley steps his feet back on Progressive Field. Trevor Bauer is a lost cause. Speaking of lost causes, the White Sox are still trotting out John Danks even though his mid-to-high 4's ERA has stayed through this new pitching-era. Carlos Rodon was picked second overall in 2014 and now, the hope is that he can turn in at minimum a Jose Quintana-type performance soon. Todd Frazier was a great pickup and who knows? maybe dumping Adam LaRoche unintentionally will only be a positive on the field for this team that is still being over-controlled by Kenny Williams. They are the thinnest team depth-wise in the division though and that is why I have this team in last.
Fake Awards
Division MVP: Kind of hard to bet against Miguel Cabrera even with his minor decline last season.
Division Rookie of the Year: Still technically a rookie, Byron Buxton has had a full offseason to work on that .209/.250/.326 line.
Division Cy Young Award: Last year should have been close to a repeat of the previous season for 2014 AL Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. He'll have better luck this year... maybe.
The Sudden Collapse Award: A collapse for Wade Davis is a 3.50 ERA. I'll take that bet in his first season as the Royals' Closer.
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| The one concern that might end KC's reign of terror is the starting rotation now featuring Ian Kennedy. |
AL West
Houston Astros 98-64
Texas Rangers 95-67
Seattle Mariners 83-79
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 78-84
Oakland Athletics 68-94
Houston has barely touched the surface of the awesome team they can become with 1B A.J. Reed waiting for that midseason call-up. Carlos Gomez is in a contract season and that will influence his desire to perform at an MVP-level if a possible World Series run isn't enough. The team is the deepest in the major leagues (outside of St. Louis and maybe the Cubs) in terms of talent that can impact this season and it will take more than a few bumps and bruises to knock them out of first place this year. George Springer will be fully healthy for the first time since his explosive rookie season and Carlos Correa is already the game's best Shortstop. They seem like the obvious AL favorites but, Kansas City has outperformed expectations every year under Ned Yost. Texas made a trade that shocked most of the baseball universe when they seemingly dealt half of their farm system to Philadelphia for Cole Hamels. That trade proved to be enough to catapult them into the playoffs even without Yu Darvish. Losing Yovani Gallardo's fluky best season will hurt their chances at winning the division (as will Darvish's slow return from Tommy John Surgery) but, Jeff Bannister and the rest of the coaching staff have had a full six months to work with Joey Gallo on his plate discipline and nobody knows what might become of one time #1 prospect Jurickson Profar after missing about two full seasons. The lineup also now includes Left Fielder Ian Desmond and that's not a typo, that's just what he does now. My point is that this team has more going for it than Cole Hamels now but, they will need some players to seriously alter their games in order to win the division and not every one of those darts is going to hit the bullseye. Seattle is, as always, a weird mix of characters on offense that now includes Adam Lind, Chris Iannetta and the underrated Nori Aoki. The pitching staff has also been the same for years now as Felix Hernandez is still king (despite whispers of a decline on the horizon), Hisashi Iwakuma is reliable (at least he was until the Dodgers refused to agree to a multi-year deal with him thanks to a failed physical) and then there's the collection of three or four young guns that usually produces one decent season, one good-yet-injury-filled season and a dud. The only noticeable difference for this team's pitching staff is that no longer will they need to rely on Fernando Rodney for saves as Steve Cishek takes over the role for the foreseeable future. Time will tell on how much of a difference new manager Scott Servais is from Lloyd McClendon. The Angels still have Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and C.J. Cron and added Andrelton Simmons but, outside of that this supporting cast is the worst they've ever had around the best player in baseball. Oakland remains an enigma after demoting Jesse Hahn and totally redoing their infield around Marcus Semien AGAIN. Neither team requires much of the nation's attention this season.
Fake Awards
Division MVP: I probably shouldn't pick against Mike Trout until he retires but, we all saw what Carlos Correa did last season and now he gets to do that over a whole season. -shivers-
Division Rookie of the Year: I've already invested a lot into him in fantasy so why not A.J. Reed? No, no, you sit down Tyler White, you are not wanted here.
Division Cy Young Award: It's unlikely that Cole Hamels or Felix Hernandez have Cy Young-caliber seasons with their best years behind them (not that they are total garbage in 2016). Dallas Keuchel is the safe pick here after he won the actual AL Cy Young last season.
The Sudden Collapse Award: There's a reason the Dodgers did not sign Hisashi Iwakuma. It's just not going to be his best season.
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| Getty Images Rougned Odor gets to shine in 2016 as the projected Rangers' leadoff man. |
NL East
New York Mets 100-62
Washington Nationals 85-77
Miami Marlins 82-80
Philadelphia Phillies 67-95
Atlanta Braves 53-109
There is not really a fifteen game difference between the Mets and Nationals. However, there is a big difference between Terry Collins and Dusty Baker (WHY IS HE BACK IN THE LEAGUE?) especially one year after Collins' team went to the World Series. The Mets rotation is only getting stronger with time as Zack Wheeler will return some time before the playoffs and likely join the best rotation in baseball of Harvey-deGrom-Syndergaard-Matz. They also have great outfield depth with young future star Michael Conforto, proven power hitter Curtis Granderson and MVP candidate Yoenis Cespedes with Gold Glover Juan Lagares and Alejandro de Aza. Neil Walker replaces Daniel Murphy and Asdrubal Cabrera will give their lineup some needed energy that went missing any time they had to use Reuben Tejada. The Nationals chose to keep Jonathan Papelbon over Drew Storen because they are a chaos organization and lost Jordan Zimmermann as an innings eater. Tanner Roark will be a full-time starter again one season after mediocre results in the bullpen and he will join Joe Ross in the rotation as they try to make up for the losses of Zimmermann and Doug Fister. The offense should be about the same as last season even though this team should really bring up Trea Turner as soon as possible to be their Shortstop of the future. The team doesn't look that different on paper but, team chemistry is a very real thing and I don't see a collection that includes Baker, Papelbon, Murphy and Bryce Harper getting along for some reason. Jose Fernandez is back and Wei-Yin Chen is now under contract for five years so the pitching will be dramatically better this year compared to last even with Carter Capps on the DL thanks to Tommy John surgery. Giancarlo Stanton might play over 100 games this year and the Marlins might even get a fully productive season out of Marcell Ozuna for once. The Phillies are certainly more optimistic than in recent years with J.P. Crawford, Nick Williams and Jorge Alfaro waiting their turns in the minors as the big league club only has a few killer contracts left (Carlos Ruiz & Ryan Howard). Philly will still be of poor quality this season but, they should not be the low man on the totem pole in this division. I have the Atlanta Braves finishing an incredibly awful 53-109 because their rotation is the inconsistent Julio Teheran and a bunch of hasbeens that includes Bud Norris. The offense does feature reliable trade assets like Erik Aybar and Nick Markakis but will be totally reliant on Freddie Freeman again post-deadline. This team is also trusting a man named Adonis at third base and the 31-year old Hector Olivera as their every day Right Fielder with barely a sniff of the major leagues up to this point. They are not trying to be playoff contenders this season and should just hold off on ruining Aaron Blair and Sean Newcomb's arms for 2017 at least.
Fake Awards
Division MVP: Cespedes isn't going to replicate last season but, Bryce Harper probably can and will.
Division Rookie of the Year: Since we've already seen him pitch well in the postseason, I like Steven Matz upsetting Trea Turner for this award.
Division Cy Young Award: After what I saw from him late last season, I find it hard to pick anyone other than Max Scherzer in the best pitching division in all of baseball.
The Sudden Collapse Award: Dusty Baker is going to overuse Ben Revere to the point where it makes him a lesser player due to fatigue.
 |
| Nothing in the NL East is as exciting as the return of Jose Fernandez for (hopefully) a full season. |
NL Central
Chicago Cubs 102-60
Pittsburgh Pirates 94-68
St. Louis Cardinals 89-73
Milwaukee Brewers 70-92
Cincinnati Reds 69-93
This is finally the Cubs' year. By that, I mean they'll win this division for the first time since Lou Piniella was in charge of the 97-win 2008 squad. Along with the talent that started to put it all together last year, the team has added Ben Zobrist, John Lackey and Jason Heyward while only losing some replaceable bullpen arms and Starlin Castro. Everybody wants to fear the predictable collapse of this team after 108 years of no rings and supposed curses. Guess what everyone, it's not going down that way anymore. They might not win it this year but Theo Epstein has built a team that will last another five years near the top of the standings and they aren't getting out of there without one ring. Of course the Cardinals are still around and present a great challenge for the Cubs but, they lost some of their depth this offseason when they dealt Jon Jay for Jedd Gyorko (for some reason) and when they lost their Right Fielder (Heyward), thus forcing Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty into everyday roles. This won't necessarily destroy this modern day evil empire but, the slightly lesser bullpen and loss of Lance Lynn to TJ surgery surely do not help them in any way. The Pirates have been known to rejuvenate veteran pitchers' careers (see: Francisco Liriano, Jeff Locke, J.A. Happ & A.J. Burnett) so don't be surprised if they manage to turn somebody like Juan Nicasio or Jon Niese into an all-star instead of finally calling up one of the trio of great pitching prospects they have (Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon and Nick Kingham). The Pirates also have one of the better outfields in the National League with Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen and the slightly overrated Gregory Polanco. Overall, I'd say most of their success is dependent on how well Francisco Cervelli plays (both offensively and defensively) and if he can match his career year of 2015. The Brewers and Reds are in tanking mode with Cincy "leading" in last as the team still needs to deal Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce for prospects in order to start the total rebuild that they have only partially begun. The rotation is all kids until Homer Bailey returns from injury (likely in May) and the bullpen does not have anywhere near the depth it did this time last year. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has publicly admitted that they are in a total rebuilding situation and has acquired some nice talent to help them not be totally embarrassing to the state of Wisconsin. Players like Jonathan Villar, Chris Carter and the now-injured Rymer Liriano were acquired as former prospects turned "mehh" major leaguers getting their second chances to shine and will either boost their trade values or get kicked to the curb once players like Orlando Arcia, Brett Phillips and first-rounder Trent Clark are ready for the big leagues. The pitching staff looks grossly emaciated with Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson as the only rays of hope right now while Wily Peralta will likely continue to disappoint and Matt Garza slowly disintegrates into nothing but an evil goatee.
Fake Awards
Division MVP: Cubs Third Baseman Kris Bryant.
Division Rookie of the Year: Pick a Red, any Red. Jose Peraza seems like a bold call but with the uncertainty in so much of the Reds' lineup and Peraza's multi-position eligibility, he could sneak his way into some major playing time.
Division Cy Young Award: Gerrit Cole will steal Jake Arrieta's throne this year and should be a very fun match-up all year long.
The Sudden Collapse Award: After leading the league in saves, Mark Melancon will lose the job sometime this season.
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| Matt Freed/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Francisco Liriano finally put together 3 straight years of success, will he throw a 4th? |
NL West
San Francisco Giants 96-66
Los Angeles Dodgers 92-70
Arizona Diamondbacks 88-74
Colorado Rockies 75-87
San Diego Padres 71-91
The Giants have done a phenomenal job with pitchers, infielders, keeping Buster Posey and pretty much everything this decade. Bruce Bochy is clearly on his way to the hall of fame and just in case baseball fans aren't convinced of this yet, watch Joe Panik become an All-Star or Jeff Samardzija drop his ERA into the 2.50-2.99 range again. Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong are finally gone and their struggles with wild inconsistency left with them, convincing the Giants to empty their pockets on former All-Stars Samardzija and Johnny Cueto. The Giants' offense is basically the same only, now featuring Denard Span (a small upgrade over Norichika Aoki). Los Angeles fired Don Mattingly after failing to advance past the first round again and swapped him out for a younger player-turned-first-time-manager Dave Roberts. The excitement around Dodgers Stadium this year is Shortstop Corey Seager playing everyday as he is being hailed as the #1 prospect in baseball while the team still has the #1 pitcher in all of baseball (Clayton Kershaw) and the least predictable/most intriguing player in baseball (Yasiel Puig). Zack Greinke's departure may have instigated panic that LA's already struggling rotation of non-Kershaws would be a major problem. After not signing Hisashi Iwakuma and not trading for Aroldis Chapman, the team has settled on 27-year old Japanese import Kenta Maeda, former three-time all-star Scott Kazmir and a collection of organizational talent. Their pitching crisis has been averted. The Diamondbacks made seemingly insane deals these past twelve months like dealing away first-round picks Touki Toussaint and Dansby Swanson for Shelby Miller and Phil Gosselin. They want to win this year and put themselves in a solid position for a winning record for at least 2016 but, they are absolutely boned after this season. Signing Greinke and Tyler Clippard to the pitching staff will help immensely as will having a fully healthy Patrick Corbin but, is all of that really enough to take out the Dodgers stacked organization or the Giants' constant brilliance in creating valuable assets. Why do the Rockies play in Colorado? As dumb a question as that is, it has prevented any pitchers from the organization to find their groove and put together great careers thanks to that lovely, confusing, nauseating altitude. Not to mention, they have a terrible front office and are owned by the most annoying owners in baseball. The Padres went from spending all of their money on big names last offseason to just retaining James Shields from that large group they brought in for a disappointing 2015 finish. The 2016 Padres are caught somewhere between rebuilding and contending and as has been proven time and time again, this type of team always ends up missing out on the latter and instead dealing veterans like Derek Norris and James Shields for a brighter future among other things.
Fake Awards
Division MVP: The obvious safe choice is Diamondbacks 1B Paul Goldschmidt.
Division Rookie of the Year: The obvious safe choice is Dodgers SS Corey Seager.
Division Cy Young Award: The obvious safe choice is Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw.
The Sudden Collapse Award: I hate killing off good comeback stories but Scott Kazmir will be below average this season.
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| AP Photo/Marcia Jose Sanchez Don't mess with Brandon or he'll Belt out a homer or two. |
PLAYOFFS?!!!
Wildcard Games
Dodgers over Pirates (Kershaw v. Cole? Yes, please)
Rangers over Red Sox
1st Round
Astros over Rangers
Blue Jays over Royals
Cubs over Dodgers
Giants over Mets
2nd Round
Astros over Blue Jays
Giants over Cubs
World Series
Giants over Astros in 6
Talent-wise, I'd say the Giants are around the sixth best team or so in Major League Baseball but, this is the postseason and odd things are always going to create chaos in the postseason. They have been to three of the last five World Series' and they seem good enough to at least get a spot in the Wildcard game (Granted, I have them winning the division but predictions are a pointless exercise once injuries and other obstacles get in the way). There is not a better manager in the sport right now than Bruce Bochy (Joe Maddon needs to get a ring to pass him up) and as shaky as Samardzija and Cueto are, they won't be as shaky as guys like Lincecum, Cain and Vogelsong have been the past five years.
It's great to have baseball back, It's great to be back in Boston! and it's great to be blogging again after my annual March hiatus. Here's to a great season ahead!
Rangers over Red Sox
1st Round
Astros over Rangers
Blue Jays over Royals
Cubs over Dodgers
Giants over Mets
2nd Round
Astros over Blue Jays
Giants over Cubs
World Series
Giants over Astros in 6
Talent-wise, I'd say the Giants are around the sixth best team or so in Major League Baseball but, this is the postseason and odd things are always going to create chaos in the postseason. They have been to three of the last five World Series' and they seem good enough to at least get a spot in the Wildcard game (Granted, I have them winning the division but predictions are a pointless exercise once injuries and other obstacles get in the way). There is not a better manager in the sport right now than Bruce Bochy (Joe Maddon needs to get a ring to pass him up) and as shaky as Samardzija and Cueto are, they won't be as shaky as guys like Lincecum, Cain and Vogelsong have been the past five years.
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| AP - Janie McCauley If this indeed comes true, I would expect Bochy to walk off into the sunset with this mysterious alcohol like a champ. |
It's great to have baseball back, It's great to be back in Boston! and it's great to be blogging again after my annual March hiatus. Here's to a great season ahead!
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